What is nogaps up to????

[bucman1]

Just saw the latest model plots by Nogaps and shows quite a

easterly shift towards the Big Bend area.

What is it seeing that I'm not?

Comments please!!!

[Josephine96]

Link to the no gaps please..

[MississippiHurricane]

Maybe it thinks the High will shift off to the east?

[SouthFloridawx]

[Josephine96]

Hmm.. Perhaps underestimating the ridges strength, or perhaps thinking of a weakening ridge, or an approaching trough/front we don't know about..

[cinlfla]

Wow what a spread from Mexico to Florida

[JonathanBelles]

on those tracks these are the affected cities
nogaps: gainsville, fl
conu: mobile, al
gfdl: gavelston
nhc: courpus cristy, tx
all bam: cozumel, mx

[bucman1]

very interesting !!

Maybe pulling the ridge further east as stated earlier.

Later runs will be very interesting.

Plot thickens!!

[ronjon]

Yikes!!!! Well, it looks like the NOGAPs and GFDL swichted places last run. The model flip flopping has begun. Get used to it - it'll probably do this several more times over the next few days.

[bucman1]

Approx120 hours possibly in NE Gulf, one never knows with this Tropical stuff.

[Josephine96]

just remember folks. it's only 1 model.. If more than 1 begin to make dramatic shifts.. then maybe get a little more nervous..

[caneman]

what is the Euro doing?

[linkerweather]

on those tracks these are the affected cities
nogaps: gainsville, fl
conu: mobile, al
gfdl: gavelston
nhc: courpus cristy, tx
all bam: cozumel, mx

The conu, gfdl, and the NHC's forecast have their last points still over the water. You can not automatically draw a straightline from the last point to determine where its endpoint is.

[bucman1]

Agreed only one model but an unexspected change,although as always the next run may be in New England.

[ronjon]

Hmm.. Perhaps underestimating the ridges strength, or perhaps thinking of a weakening ridge, or an approaching trough/front we don't know about..

What's interesting is that NOGAPs usually overestimates ridge strengths. A day or so ago it had the system jugging along the coast of S American heading for the Yuc. Last year, I believe with Katrina and Rita it was one of the farthest west with the gulf landfall if my memory serves me correct.

[JonathanBelles]

on those tracks these are the affected cities
nogaps: gainsville, fl
conu: mobile, al
gfdl: gavelston
nhc: courpus cristy, tx
all bam: cozumel, mx

The conu, gfdl, and the NHC's forecast have their last points still over the water. You can not automatically draw a straightline from the last point to determine where its endpoint is.

ya know ya ask when the next storm will develop (florence) but ya can take an educated guess on an already active system! something wrong with that picture

[skysummit]

It just shows the HIGH uncertainty of steering currents that far out. Mexico to Tampa needs to pay attention.

[cinlfla]

Hmm.. Perhaps underestimating the ridges strength, or perhaps thinking of a weakening ridge, or an approaching trough/front we don't know about..

What's interesting is that NOGAPs usually overestimates ridge strengths. A day or so ago it had the system jugging along the coast of S American heading for the Yuc. Last year, I believe with Katrina and Rita it was one of the farthest west with the gulf landfall if my memory serves me correct.

You are correct I do remember that.

[GalvestonDuck]

on those tracks these are the affected cities
nogaps: gainsville, fl
conu: mobile, al
gfdl: gavelston
nhc: courpus cristy, tx
all bam: cozumel, mx

The conu, gfdl, and the NHC's forecast have their last points still over the water. You can not automatically draw a straightline from the last point to determine where its endpoint is.

ya know ya ask when the next storm will develop (florence) but ya can take an educated guess on an already active system! something wrong with that picture

He has a point. You said "these are the affected areas."

[bucman1]

Could it be a weak cold front comming down toward the central gulf states later in the period causing nogaps to shift east???