...

[piggy]

see no conflict.

[sunny]

Link please.

[piggy]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /index.htm

[curtadams]

Fudge. It's the good models that point it thataway. And I'm supposed to vacation in Destin Labor day weekend. Thought I was pretty safe.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What are considered the good models on that plot??????

[LAwxrgal]

Crud! I'm in the 5 day cone!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The BAMs have shifted back south!

Also, based on these models it still looks like Ernesto will be a TX or LA problem down the road.

[Trugunzn]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

all models show at least a cat 1 hurricane

[Bailey1777]

You're right EWG. All of these models when initialized show a decent Northerly component which is not happening and simple logic says when that happens slide it West.

[MJA]

Extremeweatherguy,

I have not been here long but, listening to you, it seems like every storm is going to TX.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Extremeweatherguy,

I have not been here long but, listening to you, it seems like every storm is going to TX.

Wait till winter. He has every snow/ice event happening in Houston too.

[stormchazer]

The BAMs have shifted back south!

Also, based on these models it still looks like Ernesto will be a TX or LA problem down the road.

You can have it EWG, right in your backyard! I will be on a plane to Denver, CO on Monday and Ernie will be at my back.

A word of caution to those in the GOM. The models accuracy this far out is less then stellar. Look at what has traspired so far. Watch, prepare and stay tune to the NHC for updates.

[MississippiHurricane]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

You're right EWG. All of these models when initialized show a decent Northerly component which is not happening and simple logic says when that happens slide it West.

There has been a more northerly component turn as evident in the latest advisory plot. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00605.html

[bucman1]

After 72 hours it a crap shoot (I hope thats ok).
I have even seen the CMC show it towards the panhandle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy,

I have not been here long but, listening to you, it seems like every storm is going to TX.

I am just stating a fact, and the FACT is...these models really have not shifted more toward the Central Gulf.

[Wx_Warrior]

Down count your Texas chickens before the hatch.

[Rainband]

Crud! I'm in the 5 day cone!

The whole GOM is in the five day cone.

[Rainband]

Extremeweatherguy,

I have not been here long but, listening to you, it seems like every storm is going to TX.

I am just stating a fact, and the FACT is...these models really have not shifted more toward the Central Gulf.

Your right. At one point they were in the eastern Gulf. There hasn't been any consistancy with the models and there won't be until Ernesto gets organized. Think about it this way, it's like chasing your dog and trying to put the collar on it at the same time. The data won't be accurate until Ernesto gets organized.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I am almost feeling safe from this storm, but the developing low off the GA coast is worrying. It will create a weakness in the ridge, plus that front over the south has been inching lower each model run and the most recent one showed it's tail end dropping down along the tx gulf. If the trend is for that front to lower even further, that spells trouble for the panhandle, but leaves TX and LA safe.

I did't see the models seeing the developing feature except the GFDL and CMC at one point. Maybe they are over doing it, maybe under doing it.

As I said yesterday, we'll probably have to wait until Sunday night to have a better grip on what teh other synoptics will be to steer this to a landfall point.