Caribbean Shear..

[Sean in New Orleans]

Don't get too excitied...the atmosphere is filled with shear from many different directions in the Caribbean and the GOM right now...the system will survive, IMO, as it treks West, but, it will struggle. It's a rather bizarre set-up that I don't recall ever seeing.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, that's probably why they are thinking cat1 as opposed to cat2 or cat3, but even a cat1 can cause some problems..

[Stormcenter]

Don't get too excitied...the atmosphere is filled with shear from many different directions in the Caribbean and the GOM right now...the system will survive, IMO, as it treks West, but, it will struggle. It's a rather bizarre set-up that I don't recall ever seeing.

I totally agree with you Sean.

[Normandy]

Many of you REALLY dont want this to develop.
Which is understandable.

You all are overdoing this shear thing

[weatherman0518]

I agree Normandy the shear is being overexagerated. but i dont want this to hurt anyone unfortinatly i believe it will once in the gulf.

[ConvergenceZone]

yea, that's what's confusing me. Even some of the Mets on here said that it should be low shear by the time the storm gets there, so I doubt this will be an issue, but if it is, perhaps that's why they are just calling for cat1....If the shear lessens, they will probably increase the intensity

[Sean in New Orleans]

Many of you REALLY dont want this to develop.
Which is understandable.

You all are overdoing this shear thing

Well, take out the shear (which is there), and bring into play the several pockets of dry air embedded between the shear(s), (which is there), and elaborate. I'm not one to wish for either way, to be honest...I'm only stating what I see. As always, things could change....

[boca]

Did you notice the fast movement of cirrus moving NE off of Panama in the Western Caribbean and how it will play out on this system and its track.

[Normandy]

Many of you REALLY dont want this to develop.
Which is understandable.

You all are overdoing this shear thing

Well, take out the shear (which is there), and bring into play the several pockets of dry air embedded between the shear(s), (which is there), and elaborate. I'm not one to wish for either way, to be honest...I'm only stating what I see. As always, things could change....

Again I think you all are blaming the wrong things for this system not looking spectacular.

First off...
If the shear was really that intense and from "many different directions," Convection would not be formed over the LLC, it would be displaced.

Second...
Dry air? This thing has a lot of Deep convection....its not the Cape Verde waves you see have no Tstorms because of sal....Dry air is not a big problem here.

This Depression isn't bombing because its DEVELOPING....its in the beginning stages of its life, and the fact that it continues to look better and better only speaks against your argument of shear ripping it apart and supports the NHC stregthening this to a hurricane.

[SouthFloridawx]

Good points by both parties. I will have to agree with the above poster... very excellent point about it DEVELOPING.

[tailgater]

Well this is from this mornings 5am Discussion
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST OF ALL...
THE SYSTEM HAS TO SURVIVE THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IT WILL BE
EXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN
AND IT WOULDN'T BE A HUGE SURPRISE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE
IN THE "GRAVEYARD" OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LIKE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SURVIVES...AND THIS IS A BIG IF...GLOBAL MODELS REMOVE THE SHEAR BY
FRACTURING THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE SENDS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
3 DAYS WHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND... GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOTORIOUSLY
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES TOO QUICKLY IN THE PAST AND THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER-THAN-
NORMAL IN THAT AREA THIS SEASON. AFTER SAYING ALL THIS... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS. HOWEVER IF
THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
MATERIALIZES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... TD FIVE COULD BE A LOT
STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN THE LATER PERIODS.
A couple of poster and I have said this shear could greatly effect this storm.

[BayouVenteux]

A couple of poster and I have said this shear could greatly effect this storm.

Yep. If the shear is as advertised, he dreaded "graveyard" gauntlet may claim yet another fledgling cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours. Exactly why I can't get too worked up yet over what model runs may or may not depict beyond 48 hours regarding upstream locations and potential landfall areas.

Will it maintain as "Ernesto" or wind up another "Earl"? Guess we'll know in another 24-36 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

This is one of the hardest areas of Tropical Forecasting. That said, it does look like shear will be increasing over the system throughout today and we will know by tonight how it handles it. If its still there by Saturday morning then we got problems down the road because two things have happened, TD5 has taken a more northerly turn and the ULL has moved on out of the way as forecasted by GFDL and a few other tropical intensity models.

[skysummit]

This is one of the hardest areas of Tropical Forecasting. That said, it does look like shear will be increasing over the system throughout today and we will know by tonight how it handles it. If its still there by Saturday morning then we got problems down the road because two things have happened, TD5 has taken a more northerly turn and the ULL has moved on out of the way as forecasted by GFDL and a few other tropical intensity models.

Yup...we'll know a good bit in the next two days. Either we're going to have a very strong hurricane developing in the gulf, or we'll be watching the next African wave.

[KatDaddy]

The next wave would be best

[skysummit]

The next wave would be best

Totally agree. When things get in the gulf, you know someone will have to deal with it.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree with tailgater. You have to read the discussion and then realize that the globals are rarely right in the timing of uuper lows/shear. The way it looks it could become an open wave. Timing is everything but just remember the shear will eventually let up and other waves will be there. So if this doesn't develop there are others. By the way the llc is exposed but could redevelope farther east under the convection.

[KWT]

Shear is heading back west right now, you can tel lthat thanks to the shear tendancy map tohug hthe core of the shear is getting stronger:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

(ps, it seems to have placed the center in abit of a strange spot mind you!)

Also the cente ris not exposed, its under the western section of the convection but its not exposed right now and it is under convection.

Shear wil lincrease over this system later today but I don't think its going to be qutie as severe as some think it'll be though i do think it'll probably keep Td-5 static at whatever its winds were when the shea rincrease began.

[Derek Ortt]

center is not underneath the convection

This is a severely sheared depression, which does not appear to be at TS strength based upon the morning loops

[dwg71]

center is not underneath the convection

This is a severely sheared depression, which does not appear to be at TS strength based upon the morning loops

Agreed and looking a wator vapor, its about to encounter even heavier shear, look it extreme NW Quad.