CrazyC83's Ernesto Forecast (5th forecast issued)

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CrazyC83
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CrazyC83's Ernesto Forecast (5th forecast issued)

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:12 pm

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:36 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph


I finally figured out your nickname! :P
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:13 pm

Brent wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph


I finally figured out your nickname! :P


It happened several times the past few years though!
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph



:eek:

With all due respect... consider yourself slapped by a smoked salmon. Where is your meteorological reasoning for that sort of... stuff.

(I see your "meteorological reasoning", but c'mon...)
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#5 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph



ummm 175mph? why that hight?
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#6 Postby sevenleft » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:17 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Brent wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph


I finally figured out your nickname! :P


It happened several times the past few years though!
It isn't 2005 anymore.
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#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:17 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph



ummm 175mph? why that hight?


I see it going over an explosively deep and warm pool of water in a low shear environment then...
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#8 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph



ummm 175mph? why that hight?


I see it going over an explosively deep and warm pool of water in a low shear environment then...


TCHP and SST's are reasonable but I dunno that they're that good and given the interaction with dry air and the high pressure system I just dont see that happening at least not until well into the GOM. I dont even see it happening then, but that'd be the only real shot I'd think.
Last edited by 6SpeedTA95 on Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Brent wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph


I finally figured out your nickname! :P


It happened several times the past few years though!


Right.

Since 1995 we've had 170 named storms. Of those 170 named storms... six became category five. That's about 3.5%. To predict a tropical depression to become a category five when, statistically, there is a 3.5% chance (but really it's much less)... it's just crazy.
Last edited by senorpepr on Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby Andy_L » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:21 pm

senorpepr wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph



:eek:

With all due respect... consider yourself slapped by a smoked salmon. Where is your meteorological reasoning for that sort of... stuff.

(I see your "meteorological reasoning", but c'mon...)



hahahahahahahahahahaha Thanks Senor....Pepsi outa the nose and against the monitor!!!!!!!
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#11 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:13 pm

175?? why not 200?? :lol: Reminds me of the Movie Coming to America when he was having money wired and he asked if it wasn't enough. She said 200,000 and she said why not ask for a cool million.
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#12 Postby Regit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:02 am

This thread is nearly identical to the "Tropical Storm Katrina" threads from last year, as well as the early Wilma threads.

Think about it for a second. 8-)
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#13 Postby Droop12 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:05 am

People forget that last year was far from normal. A normal season hardly ever consist of a Cat 5. Remember before it got active the last few years, they were rare, now every depression which forms is a soon to be Cat 5. :roll:
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#14 Postby Beam » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:08 am

Jesus man, were you the director of "Category 7: End of the World" or something? Grow a brain, okay?
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#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:10 am

Beam wrote:Jesus man, were you the director of "Category 7: End of the World" or something? Grow a brain, okay?


While I don't share this persons enthusiasm, you do have a right to make your own prediction. Anyway who knows it could come true you never know.
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#16 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:12 am

55N-100W 999MPH. Based off the DUMM model.
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#17 Postby mike815 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:14 am

wow geez get it right im the director of cat 7 and thank all of u. it was a fantastic film it was soooo great im not making another one
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#18 Postby Beam » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:18 am

Okay, after re-reading my post I think came off as somewhat harsh up there, but still, a Category Five requires perfect, or very-near-perfect conditions. This thing is facing a far from perfect enviroment in the days ahead. I'm sure it'll be a hurricane, maybe even a category three, but I highly doubt the freakin' bottom is going to fall out. Don't let anything that transpired in the 2005 season affect your forecast reasoning. It's just common sense.
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#19 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:22 am

mike815 wrote:wow geez get it right im the director of cat 7 and thank all of u. it was a fantastic film it was soooo great im not making another one

:lol: Who makes those movies anyways? I wonder how many weather fans wrote to them to please stop making them.

55N-100W 999MPH. Based off the DUMM model.

Instead of using the DUMM model, try the DRUM model. That model takes the tropical cyclone to landmass where drums are sold.
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#20 Postby Beam » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:45 am

Cyclenall wrote:
55N-100W 999MPH. Based off the DUMM model.

Instead of using the DUMM model, try the DRUM model. That model takes the tropical cyclone to landmass where drums are sold.


Nothing personal man, but that was pretty weak. Don't quit your day job ;)
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