Tracking question for TD#5??

[bucman1]

All I keep hearing that if TD #5 developes in is destined for Texas/Mexico.

Anything that might keep it east of Mississippi?

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is always a slight chance, but as of now it looks like a strong ridge over the SE United States will keep this heading toward the western Gulf.

[TheShrimper]

Famous last words "as of now". "Now", is not 2,3,4 or 5 days down the road. You should know that by now. Where was Katrina forecasted to make landfall on Fl. east coast and where was it to exit into the Gulf?. Enough said.

[skysummit]

Yup...still way too far out to know. The ridge over the SE US could easily push back to the east a week from now which would open the door to the north, or it could build back to the west which would open the door to Mexico.

[Lifesgud2]

Too early to tell, but this has a 50 50 shot of hitting SE Fla, or Southern Texas. Too early...

[sunnyday]

The local SE FL mets said tonight that it will totally miss the area and head well south, going into the gulf. I know it's unpredictable, but he said it as a surety!

[boca]

Brownsville to New Orleans is my guess. Pinpoint will be roughly the same area as Rita struck last year.Beaumont, TX

[meteorologyman]

From what I gather from info is that there is a trough in central Carribean which will pull it Northward it "might" provide shear... it all depends how fast this storm moves if it does not get there fast enough there will be no shear and it will continue movin north to Northeast from central carib. From ship model they predict a CAT 2 by the time it gets to that area, so if it does not reach the shear in time (which will be extremely close call) we could be looking at a major hurricane

I should also note that the Gulf waters are extremely warm, and if you noticed florida is getting soaked since moisture increased rapidly, so we hav a lot of moisture and warm waters, (Ernesto "MIGHT" be very bad) time will tell

[skysummit]

Brownsville to New Orleans is my guess. Pinpoint will be roughly the same area as Rita struck last year.Beaumont, TX

That's also what I'm thinking....Rita country. If the eastern ridge pushes further into the gulf, more toward Corpus Christi or Houston, if the ridge pushes out to the east, more toward Lake Charles to New Orleans.

[boca]

I hope I'm wrong because of the refineries and I don't want to pay $5 a gallon for gas.

[Air Force Met]

Too early to tell, but this has a 50 50 shot of hitting SE Fla, or Southern Texas. Too early...

No...it doesn't have a 50/50 shot of hitting south Florida...FAR from it...

[southerngale]

How can y'all even predict that it could hit where Rita hit last year? It's way too early to tell, IMO.

[george_r_1961]

Brownsville to New Orleans is my guess. Pinpoint will be roughly the same area as Rita struck last year.Beaumont, TX

IMO its a tad early to be thinking about US landfall yet. It has a few hurdles to overcome before it even gets in the GOM. When and if it gets there then we can realistically start talking about landfall location.

[tropicsgal05]

I learned from hurricane Opal and Katrina, they have a mind of their own as they say. Opal was to hit Louisiana and took a NE turn to FWB and Katrina was suppose to hit here in the Panhandle and went to Louisiana. One of the news stations said there was a 280 mile track difference with Katrina.

[Jim Cantore]

Anywhere from central america to canada... if it survives.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

How can y'all even predict that it could hit where Rita hit last year? It's way too early to tell, IMO.

Exactly!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the key days for getting a general of idea of where this is going are going to be Sunday and Monday as this is approaching the Yucatan Channel.

[LaBreeze]

Sunday or Monday - agreed. Until then, pass the popcorn and let's keep watching closely.