Next Wave to Exit the Coast of Africa

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok so I see no one else has posted a thread concerning the next wave coming off of Africa. Looking at the size of the 850mb vorticity it looks like this one if it gets going will have a larger circulation than Debby does. Streamline analysis of the 850mb level indicates that this area already has a circulation. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg

With Favorable MJO in the Atlantic it looks like this could be a decent next couple of weeks for the E. Atlantic.



http://tinyurl.com/qjfmy
Satelite Imagry

1009mb in 84 Hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084s.gif
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 2/114.html
GFS already picking up on it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/11.html
Canadian Picking up on it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 12/23.html
MM5FSU

[ConvergenceZone]

man, look at that train over Africa in the satellite pic you posted.....


Yep, it's FINALLY here....This is the most active week since the season started.

#1 Debbie
#2 97L (soon to be Ernesto)
#3 The wave about to emerge off of Africa

[WindRunner]

That's the system people were labeling as soon-to-be TD5 a couple of days ago . . . let me go find that thread . . . still looks pretty good, even though convection is weaker.

[SouthFloridawx]

Please post about it when you find it windrunner.

[WindRunner]

Sorry . . . got distracted with some models.

This is the thread . . . an interesting discussion, but old enough that this thread is fine, if that's what you are worrying about.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88516

I don't know if any of those sat images in that thread got archived, but they did show the gray color on IR with very little rotation. Obviously it has developed significantly since then, even though the intense convection has waned. Of course, the convection could swing either way once it hits the water . . .

[Air Force Met]

Yes...this is a monster in size. The 850 mb circulation is over 1200nm in diameter...if not larger. It is roughly the size of Super Typhoon Tip...but that is where the comparison ends.

I think it will have a hard time. First, it is coming off above 15N...and second...the lower level circulation is so large...it is going to be pulling in a lot of stable air from the north. A TS is certainly not out of the question...but getting something more than that will take a while because large systems pull in so much dry air from everywhere...it has to be well away from the cooler water.

[Air Force Met]

PS...this is the same one I've been speaking of...and the GFS has been advertising it now for about a week.

Here is a good shot of it. It dwarfs Debby.

Pic

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes...this is a monster in size. The 850 mb circulation is over 1200nm in diameter...if not larger. It is roughly the size of Super Typhoon Tip...but that is where the comparison ends.

I think it will have a hard time. First, it is coming off above 15N...and second...the lower level circulation is so large...it is going to be pulling in a lot of stable air from the north. A TS is certainly not out of the question...but getting something more than that will take a while because large systems pull in so much dry air from everywhere...it has to be well away from the cooler water.

Airforcemet it appears according to the TPC TWD suface analysis graphic that there is already a 1003mb surface low associated with it.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

GFS initializes it at 1004mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

[Air Force Met]

Airforcemet it appears according to the TPC TWD suface analysis graphic that there is already a 1003mb surface low associated with it.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

GFS initializes it at 1004mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

Yes...it won't take much to upgrade it...and the GFS has been showing a 1004 MB low coming off the coast for a few days now.

[EDR1222]

Looking at those images it looks as if the ITCZ is situated a little farther north than normal for this time of year. I know it varies somewhat, but maybe someone can shed some light on why the storms are rolling off the coast at the higher latitudes. Possibly a weaker than normal high pressure system over there?

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Cylconic turning is showing up on Satellite. If there is an El Nino going on, this is probably the weakest one ever.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 12Z shows a strong area of low pressure (1006mb) emerging from the coast within the next 24 hours..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[terstorm1012]

I put it up on Google Earth last night and it was quite impressive.

(linky)
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showthreaded ... in/561535/
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php ... PHPSESSID=

[Derecho]

Dakar was at 1006 mb this morning, and earlier other sites in Senegal were as low as 1005 mb. It's very, very rare for waves to have sfc pressures under 1006 mb as they come off.

[OuterBanker]

Hmmmmm, huge flare up of convec between 12 and 18z run. Large ll swirl but no convec earlier. Wow, what a difference 6 hrs can make. But, I think this will be fish because of high lats.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
16N16W...IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. A WAVE IS
THUS LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO THE 25/0000 UTC MAP THROUGH THE LOW.
A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
13W-19W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE EXISTS OFF THE
COAST OF GUINEA...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.


8 PM Discussion.

The low pressure is going to emerge very far north in latitud (16n).

[whereverwx]

It's on its way off the coast...

[tropicsPR]

Impressive surface low reading for a wave moving off from Africa...1005mb

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldnt it be funny if this became Ernesto first instead of td 5

[Patrick99]

Any reason why this wave exiting Africa, whatever it becomes, won't just follow Debby?