Tropical Storm Debby Forecasts (Forecast 5 Posted)

[ncweatherwizard]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


From Nencweather.com

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable always first consult
and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This
forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional
source of information except nencweather.com.

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /four.html

Nothing really special about this storm; it will probably have some heavy shear to reckon with in a few days, but for now, some slow strengthening can be expected.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 2:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /four.html

More conservative with the intensity and on the south side of guidance.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 3:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... debby.html

Nearly same track, except for more bend to the right since a stronger storm is forecasted.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 4:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... debby.html

Track is more northward and faster for the first 24 hours. Very close to model guidance, and I keep a weak storm. Shear will impact it, but it currently has a good internal banding structure for a tropical storm. It may maintain its strength in convective flareups when sheared later, and eventually there may be some baroclinic influence which could actually lead to strengthening. Given all the possibilities, I just level off intensity at 45kts.

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 5:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... debby.html

Baroclinic interaction later; I keep it as a separate cyclone through 5 days.

Scott