NAM showing a potential tropical system?

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Extremeweatherguy
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NAM showing a potential tropical system?

#1 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:16 am

The 12Z NAM is showing a strong low (1008mb) or tropical system hitting and crossing the Yucatan peninsula within 84 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Seems like other models have been hinting at something similar too. Any thoughts?
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#2 Postby rjgator » Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:21 am

THe Euro has been eluding to a low North of the DR in about 5-6 days. Need to see if it remains consistent.
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#3 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Jul 15, 2006 11:13 am

Use this loop of the NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#4 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jul 15, 2006 11:36 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Use this loop of the NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
wow. this is much better. thanks.
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#5 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 15, 2006 11:48 am

maybe thats the some energy from whats left of 96L? I don't know but interesting to see if other models pick this up in the coming days.
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#6 Postby gopherfan21 » Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:08 pm

I think it has already been mentioned in another thread that the NAM spins up way too many ghost vortexes. Forget that it "called Alberto's cyclogenesis"...if it calls cyclogenesis every 5 seconds, its probably going to call Alberto's.


If I were you, I would look at the GFS, GFDL, ECMWF, etc. BEFORE looking at the NAM, etc. If the ECMWF calls for development, and the GFS and NAM, etc. agree...then development is much much more likely.
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#7 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:51 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Use this loop of the NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
wow. this is much better. thanks.


Model runs for the western north atlantic

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml
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Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 15, 2006 2:32 pm

only the GFS is showing anything at the surface resembling a closed low

However, we may get Daniel in the EPAC in a few days
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