Area north of PR looks more organized

[boca]

When the Bermuda high builds back in the ULL north of Puerto Rico might become a player if it can work its way down to the surface. I know its a long shot but you never know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

When the Bermuda high builds back in the ULL north of Puerto Rico might become a player if it can work its way down to the surface. I know its a long shot but you never know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Agreed as I put in a thread before... I see development unless thos pesky ULL's are hangin around. I noticed that ULL too boca... good look on that one.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm actually kind of suprised that no one is mentioning this feature. I know it's an ULL but, it does have quite a bit of Convection associated with it and you can see a tropical wave moving closer to it that may enhance some convection at the surface.

GFS weakens this upper level low and brings a wave of energy into the bahamas.
300mb GFS Vorticity for the 12z run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

You can clearly see the location of the ULL on the CIMSS 200mb vorticity chart. But one thing I noticed about this ull is that it doesn't seem to be as strong as the TUTT currently located to the ULL's Northeast about 800-1200 miles away.

The reason I'm worried about hte tropics heating up is after this ULL weakens and moves north the Caribbean Sea is going to have low wind shear, tropical waves and Positive MJO. This can only lead to the start of the Hurricane Season in about 4-7 Days.

[bvigal]

Hmm, I mentioned the ULL as it pertains to my local weather, and NWS San Juan forecasts, which has been deemed off-topic so you'll find it in Weather Attic.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hmm, I mentioned the ULL as it pertains to my local weather, and NWS San Juan forecasts, which has been deemed off-topic so you'll find it in Weather Attic.

The thread for the convection in the bahamas was associated to and ULL, so I don't believe that your local weather is off topic as we need to watch ULL's for possible development in the tropics.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, I think the chances of this developing will be pretty low. There is little sign of a spin near the surface, and the ULL is rather shallow and is about to enter a higher shear environment partly related to the trough ahead of it, as evidenced on water vapor and visible imagery, both of which also demonstrate my other points mentioned above.

As it moves into the environment of higher shear, favorable divergence at the various levels might increase, and the center might reform, increasing the chances of slight development; however, the synoptics likely won't favor development as the trough remains in place and slowly pulls away.

[boca]

Question is which way does this ULL go west or north because of the trough over the SE. My htinking is the trough will not pull out fast enough and will see this ULL move more NNW or north starting tomorrow. The wave around 40W has to be watched more closely due to the fact that the bermuda high would of build in for a while and direct these waves westward like a conveyor belt.

[MiamiensisWx]

Question is which way does this ULL go west or north because of the trough ovver the SE.

That depends. If it continues on a more northwest track and feels the influence of the trough more, it may move a bit north-northwest towards the trough and have it's main convective mass and part of the ULL break off and merge with the trough, while a second piece of energy from the ULL stalls and remains in place near the Bahamas as the trough gradually pulls out, leaving this second piece of energy under weak steering currents. As surface ridging builds slowly over it from the northwest and merges with surface Atlantic ridging, gradually strengthening and getting better established, the second piece of energy may be slowly forced west to west-southwest towards Florida, possibly allowing it to form a new closed surface low.

The second possible scenario is that the whole ULL slowws down and drifts, getting sheared by the trough until the trough gradually pulls out. As the trough pulls out, the ULL may form a weak surface low as ridging builds in and slowly forces it westward towards Florida.

[storms in NC]

looks to be going west right now

[boca]

I think your 1st scenario is plausible due to the fact that the trough is still in place and the ULL is only about 400 or so miles from the trough and is moving at 10mph towards the WNW it will start feeling the pull tomorrow to the NNW. Its all speculation right now.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 082112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[boca]

As time goes by I'm thinking of this being a nonissue because its already turning NW and by tomorrow NNW to north harmlessly raining on the fish.

[brunota2003]

This low is a fishy storm isn't it? I think even if it starts to develop the cold front is about to have a nice snack...yum...

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Doesn't look so bad right now, if it was in the bahamas like our last ULL, chances for development would have been better.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Doesn't look so bad right now, if it was in the bahamas like our last ULL, chances for development would have been better.

Nope not too bad at all.

[The Hurricaner]

It looks pretty good actually, but i guess its not being recognized so much cause its low chances of development and being a fish spinner. If only it went west. And i think that 96L invest is gonna be nothing.

[storms in NC]

Looks good to me too. I think it just might miss the trough. If it does and gets by the Bahamas we may have something.
as for the 96l won't happen

[The Hurricaner]

It has not looked like its weakening any bit. It looks better organized, im suprised noone is talking about this! which way is it moving?

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Convection appears to have increased in some areas and decreased in other areas. Right now like you said Hurricaner, it hasn't weakened one bit.

[boca]

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THIS WEEK IS THE UPPER LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE NORTH THE PUERTO RICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BUT THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

Our weather by WED/THURS is from the area north of PR not from the wave or low at 41W which I originally thought.