Is 2006 the year of the shear?

[cycloneye]

Well,as Mike Watkins said in his invest thread,many will not like this thread either as the talk is about something that Tropical Cyclones dont like and that is upper shear.Alberto formed but it had a ferousious battle with the shear which didn't let it become a minimal hurricane just prior to landfall.There has been a TUTT trough hanging in the Atlantic not letting the tropical waves organize and that was the case wth the recent 2 waves that moved thru the Eastern Caribbean.The question is if this upper shear will relax as the peak of the season draws closer meaning the TUTT will weaken or it will remain for the duration of the 2006 season?

Let's have an interesting discussion about this important theme.

Water Vapor,Central Atlantic

Water Vapor,Western Atlantic,Caribbean Sea

Water Vapor,Gulf of Mexico

[Scorpion]

Of course..its only June. How did 2004 not see a named storm until August?

[WindRunner]

Of course..its only June. How did 2004 not see a named storm until August?

Actually, it's July . . . but you still have a point. Inactive early season doesn't say anything about the months to come.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I don't think this is the "year of the shear", because shear is actually common this early in the season. I just hope that late season doesn't come with vengeance (like in 2004). Another year with the same state being directly hit by 4 hurricanes would NOT be good.

[cycloneye]

Scorpion and WindRunner,agree with both about having slow June and July not meaning much for what will occur in August,September and October.I am making this thread to have good discussions about this topic to keep the forum active as things are relativly quiet in the Atlantic.

[apocalypt-flyer]

The season's over, quite obviously.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The season's over, quite obviously.

lol. that would be amazing. Last year is the busiest on record, and this year is the quietest with just 1 named storm.

[Derek Ortt]

year of the shear would be 1983, 1992, or 1997

[windycity]

yea, 1992,and high shear values,yet we all know that it only takes one,Andrew!!!!

[Recurve]

In a mostly amateurish, intuitive way, I "forecast" lower season totals because I thought higher shear would inhibit development more than in 04-05.
Of course, as pointed out above, a year with no named storms until late August can still include an Andrew, etc.

Interested in cycloneye and other pros' help understanding:
We don't have one of the conditions (el nino) that produce Atlantic basin shear, as I understand it. I'm curious about other large-scale factors that can cause more consistent shear in the TC development areas. Does the subtropical jet being generally farther south have an inhibiting or enhancing effect, for example? What about changes in the westerlies at mid-latitudes? What causes more surface troughs or TUTTs in the Gulf and Caribbean in a particular season -- and does that lead to more formation sources, more shear, or both?

[canegrl04]

Also lets remember in 1969,the C storm didn't develope untill late August.It was Camille

[Extremeweatherguy]

My prediction is that we may be see 1 (2 if lucky) storms this July, followed by a ramp up in August and September (3 to 5+ storms per month) and then a slow decrease through October and November. I think 10-15 storms sounds about right for this year...may be 15-20 if the late season is really active.

I also think that we have at least 2 more storm landfalls in the Gulf (probably both in the western Gulf) and at least 2 for the east coast. At least one of these landfalls should be that of a major hurricane.

[southerngale]

LOL apocalypt-flyer.
It's July 1st. Ask me again in 4 months, then I'll have an answer.

[wxmann_91]

Not year of the shear. Westerlies are a little strong but that could be a byproduct of the synoptic pattern. I expect a little burst in Aug-Sept. then quiet down for later in the season. There are signs of an El Nino appearing in later September.

[cycloneye]

Not year of the shear. Westerlies are a little strong but that could be a byproduct of the synoptic pattern. I expect a little burst in Aug-Sept. then quiet down for later in the season. There are signs of an El Nino appearing in later September.

What do you mean by a little August-September burst? How many named systems will form in those peak months?

[boca]

If an El Nino is supposed to happen wouldn't shear be high during the 2006 hurricane season and squash development.

[wxmann_91]

Not year of the shear. Westerlies are a little strong but that could be a byproduct of the synoptic pattern. I expect a little burst in Aug-Sept. then quiet down for later in the season. There are signs of an El Nino appearing in later September.

What do you mean by a little August-September burst? How many named systems will form in those peak months?

I would have used 2004 as an analog if I had done a detailed season forecast, it that is a hint.

[cycloneye]

Not year of the shear. Westerlies are a little strong but that could be a byproduct of the synoptic pattern. I expect a little burst in Aug-Sept. then quiet down for later in the season. There are signs of an El Nino appearing in later September.

What do you mean by a little August-September burst? How many named systems will form in those peak months?

I would have used 2004 as an analog if I had done a detailed season forecast, it that is a hint.

That word (Little) may not applie as 13 named storms formed between August and September of 2004.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I can think of several shear years that bread intense tropical and tropical related storms; 1992 (Andrew) and 1991 (Bob and the Halloween Storm) spring to mind. It only takes ONE to be a bad season. With that stated I still think it will be an very active year, when all is said and done.

[Aquawind]

To early to call shear year.. I do think we will have more issues related to shear but then if we have over 11 systems it will be considered active..so who cares...lol Shear is our friend..