91B: indian ocean (BOB 0602)

[JonathanBelles]

doesnt look to good right now, what do you think?

[HurricaneHunter914]

A link please?

[mtm4319]

Center is the red dot.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, a little messy to say the least.

[JonathanBelles]

looks like theres 40 kt shear

[HurricaneHunter914]

Nothing big, just a rainmaker for India.

[P.K.]

WTIN20 DEMS 300750

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30-06-2006(.)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF
BENGAL, AND ANDAMAN SEA AND ALSO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24.0 DEG. NORTH OVER
THE INDIAN REGION (.)


MSG OVER ??????????

[P.K.]

This appears to be the 994hPa low the BoM have analysed over the BOB. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0966

[P.K.]

The latest on this is it is a Deep Depression. The number for this should be BOB 0602.

FQIN01 DEMS 021800

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24 HOURS. FROM 2006 07 02 1800 UTC 02 JULY 2006

PART - I : NO STORM WARNING

PART - II: THE MORNING DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST WARDS AND LIES
CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 2ND JULY 2006 WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 20.5 DEG. N/LONG. 88.0 DEG.
E ABOUT 150 KMS SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE (.) THE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS
NORTH ORISSA-WEST BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN PARADIP AND
DIGHA BY TOMORROW 03RD JULY 2006 MORNING (.) THE
TROUGH OF LOW AT SEA LEVEL PASSES THROUGH GANGA NAGAR
AGRA ALLAHABAD SIDDI CENTRED OF DEEP DEPRESSION AND
THENCE SE WARDS TO NE BAY (.) THE OFFSHORE TROUGH AT
SEA LEVEL FROM SOUTH GUJARAT COAST TO KERALA COAST
PERSISTS (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII( N)

PART III: FORECAST

ARB - A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. WEST OF 80 DEG.E.
I)WIND: SW/W 20/25 KTS (.)WIND IN GUST WILL BE 30/35
KTS IN RA/TS(.)
II)WEATHER -FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY -POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA -MODERATE TO ROUGH (.)

ARB - A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG. NORTH
I) WIND- SW/W 30/35 KTS BEC NW/W TO THE EAST OT 71
DEG EAST(.)
II) WEATHER - WIDE SPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY -POOR IN RA/TS (.) .
IV)STATE OF SEA - VERY ROUGH TO HIGH (.)

BOB - A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG.E.
I) WIND-MAINLY SW 20/25 KTS. (.)
II) WEATHER - SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY - POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV)STATE OF SEA - MODERATE TO ROUGH (.)

BOB - A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 10 DEG.NORTH
I) WIND: SW 30/35 KTS BEC CYCLONIC NEAR THE CENTRE OF
DEEP DEPRESSION 20.5 DEG. N AND WEST OF
88 DEG. E (.)
II) WEATHER - WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY - POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV)STATE OF SEA - VERY ROUGH TO HIGH (.) .

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So a deep depression means that it is a offical cyclone?

[P.K.]

Yes. Not sure how long it has been though as I've only just noticed it in the Met Area bulletin and they have only just removed the old Mala advisory from their page.

[P.K.]

Right this appears to have formed this morning.

WTIN20 DEMS 021030

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-07-2006 (.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC (.)

A DEEP DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0300 IST OF 2ND JULY 2006 NEAR LAT 20.5 DEG N AND LONG 890.0 DEG E
ABOUT 250 KM SOUTH EAST OF BALASORE. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTH ORISSA AND ADJOINING
WEST BENGAL COAST BETWEEN PARADIP AND DIGHA BY TOMORRLOW, 3RD JULY
2006 MORNING .

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH
AND ADJOING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

MSG OVER

[WindRunner]

NRL has it as 03B, and JTWC says it just made landfall . . . doesn't look like this'll get officially named.

[P.K.]

WWIN40 DEMS 030300


I W B 3RDD MNG :

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH BAY CROSSED ORISSA COAST BET
PARADIP AND CHANDBALI AROUND 1500 UTC OF 2ND JULY 2006 . FURTHER ,
IT MOVED IN A WESTNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTERED CLOSE
TO CUTTACK AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE
IN A WESTNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION (.)

THE TRGH OF LOW AT SL PASSES THROUGH ANP GWL PND CENTRED OF
DEEP DEPRESSION AND THENCE SE WARDS TO EC BAY(.)
THE OFFSHORE TRGH AT SL FROM GUJ COT TO KERALA COT PERSISTS(.)
THE CYCIR BETWN 1.5 AND 5.8 KM ASLOVER SAU & KUTCH AND ADJ
GUJ.NOW LIES OVER GUJ AND ADJ N-MAHA COT (.)
HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS PREVAILED IN SOME PARTS OF W-RAJ (.)
SW-MONSOON HAS BEEN VIG IN ORISSA AND ACTIVE IN KON/GOA M-MAHA
AND CHTGH (.)

FORECAST : RA/THRS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MOST PLACES IN
ORISSA KON/GOA M MAH VIDH CHTGH CAP TELGNA COT KKA KERALA AND
LKDWP ;AT MANY PLACES IN GWB MP GUJ STATE MRTWDA R/SEEMA
AND SIK AND AT FEW PLACES OVER REST OF THE COUNTRY OUTSIDE A/N IDS
UTNCHL HP J & K RAJ AND T-NADU WHERE IT WILL OCCUR AT ISOLATED PLACES (.)

HRW : HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT FEW
PLACES WITH EXTERMLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT ISOL PLACES OVER ORISSA
AND KON/GOA DURING NEXT 48 HRS(.)HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY R/F IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
ISOL PLACES OVER CHTGH AND C-AP AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ISOL PLACES OVER E-MP GUJ STATE M-MAHA VIDH
TELGNA COT-KKA AND KERALA DURING THE SAME PERIOD(.)

They have finally sorted the warnings page out.

No. BOB/2/2006/ 05 Dated 3rd July, 2006

Subject: Deep Depression over Orissa

The deep depression over Orissa centred near Puri moved slightly northwestward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST 3rd July, 2006 near Lat. 20.5°N Long. 85.5°E close to Cuttack. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, wide spread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (more than 25 cms) likely over interior Orissa, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls also likely over coastal Orissa, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and north Telangana during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are also likely to continue along and off Orissa coasts during next 24 hours.

The Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Orissa coasts.

The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

[P.K.]

No. BOB/2/2006/07 Dated 3rd July, 2006


Subject: Deep Depression over Orissa

The deep depression over Orissa moved slightly westwards and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST 3rd July, 2006 near Lat. 21.0°N & Long. 84.0°E close to Sambalpur. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, wide spread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls likely over south Orissa during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and north Telangana during the same period. As the system moves further westwards it is likely to cause widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (more than 25 cm) over Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and Vidharbha during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are also likely to continue along and off Orissa coasts till tomorrow morning. The Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Orissa coasts. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

Next bulletin will be issued at tomorrow morning.