South Florida Watching 93L - NWS Mia Mentions It in Forecast

[gatorcane]

South Floridians post away your comments in this thread...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 271840
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. PWAT`S MUCH LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO
AND DRYER AIR EVIDENT ON RAOB ABOVE 17K. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME
PUNCH TO THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS IN STORMS SO FAR
HAS BEEN 40 MPH AND RADAR SHOWS POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL BROWARD COUNTY
BUT DEFINITELY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT LEAST THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST AND NOT SITTING STILL. WITH SW MEAN FLOW AND
SEABREEZE ALONG EAST COAST, HIGHEST POPS REST OF TODAY EAST COAST.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
BEING WATCHED ALONG 51W AND ACCORDING TO GFS AND WITH AN WEST
MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 KTS, THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP
SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. TOO SOON TO PUT POPS TO LIKELY ATTM
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT COULD BE VERY POSSIBLE THE CLOSER WE GET
TO THE EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE DECENT
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH`S WILL BE ABOVE CRITERIA EACH AFTN SO
NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 77 89 / 25 60 35 55
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 77 89 / 25 55 30 55
MIAMI 78 91 77 89 / 20 55 30 55
NAPLES 75 90 75 90 / 10 35 25 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

18

[gatorcane]

It looks like it will at least enhance the easterly wind flow across South Florida - we haven't had a good east wind pattern yet this summer.

I am looking forward to that

[Derek Ortt]

its being watched for increased risk of rain, not for development

[gatorcane]

its being watched for increased risk of rain, not for development

True Derek but you don't know - it has been quite a fiesty wave up to this point. I just hope it doesn't pull any tricks for us.

[Dean4Storms]

its being watched for increased risk of rain, not for development

I think it fair to say it is being watched for both. Watching it doesn't necessarily mean it is going to develop does it?

[jlauderdal]

It looks like it will at least enhance the easterly wind flow across South Florida - we haven't had a good east wind pattern yet this summer.

I am looking forward to that

why does a deep easterly flow get you so excited? i prefer a SW flow like today so we get thunderstorms in the afternoon.

[gatorcane]

it is alot cooler with the easterly flow and generally the air is more tropical

[Derek Ortt]

its a very disorganized wave... the thunderstorm over Miami was better organized

[gatorcane]

its a very disorganized wave... the thunderstorm over Miami was better organized

I disagree Derek anyway, we are posting away in the other thread about it....

[marcane_1973]

It is way too hostile out in the Atlantic to even be worrying about anything at the moment. Conditions are not right in most areas of the Atlantic for anything to get going. This wave will most likely be torn apart and if it makes it to Florida you will be getting some much needed rain. If it was August or September then most of the invests so far would probably become named storms.

[Derek Ortt]

Nowhere, did the NWS say they were watching the wave for development. Instead, they only indicated their thinking for increased rainfall. Kind of adding words to the NWS statements by saying they are watching it for development, when they do not mention it, at least IMO

[T'Bonz]

Heh. Sez you. I was out driving in one of those storms this afternoon!

Been watching the various waves coming across. Like last year, most are getting torpedoed. This one doesn't alarm me (it looks "ill" tonight), but am keeping a wary eye JUST in case, as I will from now 'til Nov.

why does a deep easterly flow get you so excited? i prefer a SW flow like today so we get thunderstorms in the afternoon.

[Starburst]

Nowhere, did the NWS say they were watching the wave for development. Instead, they only indicated their thinking for increased rainfall. Kind of adding words to the NWS statements by saying they are watching it for development, when they do not mention it, at least IMO

Derek correct me if I am wrong but I do not see where Gatorcane stated anything about the NWS watching 93L for development. Gatorcane actually stated that the NWS is watching 93L and mentions it in the discussion which they do. I do not see at all that he was trying to add words to the NWS discussion.

[wxman57]

Since it's not going to be developing over the next 3-4 days (as the models forecast), it's not likely going to track to the NW toward Miami. Instead, it should track with the low-level flow and head nearly due west for the next 5-7 days. May need to keep a closer eye on it as it reaches Nicaragua/Honduras or the southern Yucatan late this weekend or early next week, though.

[Nimbus]

Pretty healthy wave has there been any change in the caribbean shear forecast over the next 5 days?

[cpdaman]

let's listen to the pro's guys , what they're saying is it's highly unlikely that this thing would effect us in any signifigant way (don't worry they'll be plenty of action this summer)imo

to quote a line from dumb and dumber

"so you're saying there's a chance"

[Agua]

let's listen to the pro's guys . . ."

This should be a patently obvious bit of advice, but its amazing how many people seem to think meteorology is just "one guy's opinion vs. another's".

[gatorcane]

Nowhere, did the NWS say they were watching the wave for development. Instead, they only indicated their thinking for increased rainfall. Kind of adding words to the NWS statements by saying they are watching it for development, when they do not mention it, at least IMO

Derek correct me if I am wrong but I do not see where Gatorcane stated anything about the NWS watching 93L for development. Gatorcane actually stated that the NWS is watching 93L and mentions it in the discussion which they do. I do not see at all that he was trying to add words to the NWS discussion.

Thanks for this - of course I agree

[HURRICANELONNY]

Every year they say a wave will effect us and 90% of the time poof. Since they think it will this July 4th weekend. I'd bet it will be nice. I say 40% chance of afternoon thundershowers. They'll change it. It's the GFS.

[gatorcane]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 281835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH. THE RIDGE
WILL COME TO REST AROUND 30N-32N OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL
GENERALLY LIE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FAST-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM THE
NON-DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...DAILY
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR INTERIOR/WEST ZONES NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE EAST. GFS MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGH DAY SEVEN.