What to expect from Invest, TD, or TS in Florida

[Vortex]

Late this Friday evening it appears that some convection is beginning to form near or over the estimated center. Either way models are in general agreement in bringing this system to the Florida coast within 48 hours. Saturday should be a transitional day along the East coast of Florida. Showers will be on the increase throughout the day. These showers will become heavier and more pronounced by saturday evening. They will move quickly off to the SSW as the flow will be from the NNE. Brief heavy rains, wind gusts in excess of 30kts, and water spouts are all possible by Saturday evening. Saturday night and Sunday the activity will become more widespread and especially heavy closest to the center or low. Dependent on the strength of this system will dictate any marine concerns..Stay tuned but those along the Florida east coast prepare for very squally weather Saturday night and Sunday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with good foreacst. Also I think it will get up to 40 knots.

[wxwonder12]

All of Florida East coast or just Northern half???

[jusforsean]

so, does this forecast hold for south florida as well or is it more north than dade/broward?

[CHRISTY]

All of Florida East coast or just Northern half???

it depends were it comes in will determine what weather u get.and of course others a host of other factors.

[CHRISTY]

so, does this forecast hold for south florida as well or is it more north than dade/broward?

what iam doing is...iam waiting till it gets way past my latitude then we can relax but as of now dont let your guard down.

[Opal storm]

A FL landfall is not set in stone yet, but if it does hit FL this forecast would happen.

[Vortex]

Based on current and forecasted synoptics and models I think the area from Miami North to Cocoa beach will initially be the focal point of the heaviest squalls but subject to change based on strength and direction.

[Windtalker1]

Based on current and forecasted synoptics and models I think the area from Miami North to Cocoa beach will initially be the focal point of the heaviest squalls but subject to change based on strength and direction.

My guess is alittle south...Florida City to Sebastian Inlet

[windycity]

well, it better go north, cause im having company from the midwest on sunday and i promiced them great weather!

[shaggy]

All of Florida East coast or just Northern half???

it depends were it comes in will determine what weather u get.and of course others a host of other factors.

if it comes into florida that is!The models may very well change if it actually develops and the models get a better idea of the strength of the low and the surrounding atmosphere.

[Vortex]

I really think that tommorrow will prove to be an interesting day for this system. I base this on current trends, model analysis, shear maps, and overall prognostic and the forecasted environment. Lets see what happens but I look forward to the visible images by tomorrow afternoon

[Vortex]

6/24 00z NAM just out brings this system to the coast of East Florida within 36 hours. Analysis of the model indicates very squally weather along the East Florida coast later Saturday evening and Sunday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxwonder12]

Does that latest model run enter the Florida East Coast and some of the convection circle Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County delivering little rain??

[fci]

Sorry sports fans but I just don't see it!
Little or no convection now so I don't see squally weather here in Palm Beach County or on the Florida East Coast . Certainly no winds to 30 or 40 kts.
This thing looks pathetic at this point.
Maybe it will develop later but I think if it does it goes more NW and N and not towards the South or Central Fl coast.
Get the crow ready if tomorrow night its squally but I see nothing happening.

[HurricaneQueen]

From that run it would appear as if this low will do a loop around Fl from east to west and back east again! It doesn't look like a huge rainmaker at this point.

Lynn

[Vortex]

Very heavy rainfall right now along Fort Lauderdale Beach. Atmosphere has changed significantly the last few hours. Much more humid. As I speak we are currently receiving heavy rain.

[MWatkins]

The upper low dopes not appear to be slipping to the west as the models were predicting yesterday...and there is a lot of dry air over on the western side.

This looks like...in the low levels...to be a broad area of low pressure that will roll into east central Florida in the next couple of days. If it does develop at all it will start probably tomorrow...but given the fact the upper low has not seperated from any of the surface features it looks to be...at most...a subtropical cyclone.

To me the best chance at Beryl will be form the central Atlantic system progged by just about all of the models to get going after the weekend.

Unless something significant changes by tomorrow morning...recon will likely be cancelled.

MW

[Audrey2Katrina]

In answering the question of the thread: Probably neither... perhaps some weather... but not much in the lines of any really developed depression or wave.. just doesn't look likely at this time... my 2 cents.

A2K

[Rainband]

It looks pretty sad to me. I agree Mike