GFS, NOGAPS, CMC East Coast Threat Next Week

[Scott_inVA]

Until we know what Invest 91 does and where the Ridge axis locates, next week's threat looks legit at this time. Fish storm halts and heads west in response to High Pressure to NE. GFS really wants to punch the Ridge then beeline west...possibly toward NC/VA or perhaps, more to the NW for Delmarva/NJ or even New England. Think next week's storm is a "go" but not sold yet on early model ideas.

Keep an eye on this as well as Invest 91L

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[cycloneye]

Scott to avoid confusion from members who may ask,this is not for invest 91L but for another system well east of the invest right?

[skysummit]

It looks like it may come from some of that energy that's currently NE of Puerto Rico today. Each of these models point toward the Northeast...

12z Canadian 114 Hours:


12z GFS 108 Hours:


12z NOGAPS 108 Hours:

[cpdaman]

I doubt SST would support a warm core system moving west at that latitude in Late JUNE

[Stratusxpeye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86034

This is the same system correct?? Duplicate thread?

[skysummit]

Stratus....it's the same. I guess the other thread got too much off topic.

[Scott_inVA]

Scott to avoid confusion from members who may ask,this is not for invest 91L but for another system well east of the invest right?

Correct. Potential event next week is minor wave NE of PR.
Invest 91L is over the Bahamas.

Scott

[Stormcenter]

Scott to avoid confusion from members who may ask,this is not for invest 91L but for another system well east of the invest right?

Yes please clear this up.

[Scott_inVA]

Stratus....it's the same. I guess the other thread got too much off topic.

Same storm.
Correct.

Scott

[wxmann_91]

That's interesting that all the models agree. However, I just do not see a system punching through a ridge like that, probably a trough left behind by 91L? But if it does move west in response to that ridge it will be quite a rarity at such a latitude at such a time. And of course if it affects the east coast the flooding problems progged to begin over the weekend will be compounded.

[wxwatcher91]

Taunton, MA AFD
ISSUED 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

BOTH GFS AND WRF SETTLE FRONT FURTHER SE AFTER WAVE PASSAGE LATE SAT
INTO SUN...BEFORE BUILDING HEIGHTS OF WESTERN ATLC RIDGE PUSHES AXIS
BACK TO THE NW. UNSURE OF POSITIONING DETAIL AS WELL AS WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE THAT MOVES ALONG FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR NOT. GFS TRIES TO BRING UP CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
TROPICS LATE MON OR MON NIGHT. THIS IS AT LEAST HINTED BY OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THIS COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER PULSE OF EXCESSIVE
RAIN ON TOP OF VERY HIGH RIVER/STREAM FLOW. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS
THAT THE WESTERN ATLC RIDGE BUILDS SO MUCH AS TO SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WELL WEST OF AREA...BUT NOT COUNTING
ON THAT AT THE MOMENT.