Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thread is devoted to the latest developments from Joe Bastardi so that we can keep track of where he stands and relay information to those that do not pay for the pro site. Everyone who reads his columns...feel free to add information.

From tonight's post, he says:

- The Indian monsoon is about 10 days early, which means that the Atlantic wave train will be more active than normal.

-Over the next three weeks expect 2 distinct problem periods.

-The first will be the Gulf after June 10th. This is due to a trof that will lift out and split a piece back into the Gulf and increased moisture ("muddling") from the Caribbean.

-He feels that the Gulf threat will be further west rather than further east.

-Another issue may be a trough that is expected to come through and leave late next week.

-We also need to watch the piling of energy on the wave train. He says that the path of the waves is generally too far south currently, but once they start tracking further north...they "may" have a chance to rapidly develop.


This is what I am getting out of this post: The Gulf will really be heating up over the next few weeks, and the western Gulf is favored. As we head 10-20 days down the road we may see yet more Gulf threats and possible Caribbean threats. It seems to me that JB is thinking that we will see a storm before the month is out.

[brunota2003]

no comment from me...I have nothing nice to say

[AussieMark]

thats a good attitude

my mother always told me if u don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all

[brunota2003]

thats a good attitude

my mother always told me if u don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all

Thank ypu...Hmmm...my mother must of seen the same video or something cause she says the EXACT word for word thing... Anyways...it is an interesting read...late...night...

[Hurricaneman]

Hes a good forecaster, but tends to over forecast

[Stormcenter]

:comment: no comment from me...I have nothing nice to say

I know how you feel.

[Cookiely]

I have no problem with JB, but I do believe that he is stating the obvious. I have no weather expertise at all but if someone asked me I could give similar forecast for the month of June. What it boils down to is "We might have a TS in the GOM this month"
This is big news.

[vbhoutex]

This is not a comment on Joe Bastardi thread.

This thread is devoted to the latest developments from Joe Bastardi so that we can keep track of where he stands and relay information to those that do not pay for the pro site. Everyone who reads his columns...feel free to add information.

Please let's keep it that way.

[Jim Cantore]

This is not a comment on Joe Bastardi thread.

This thread is devoted to the latest developments from Joe Bastardi so that we can keep track of where he stands and relay information to those that do not pay for the pro site. Everyone who reads his columns...feel free to add information.

Please let's keep it that way.

I second that

[drezee]

I am wrong for feeling like if someone posts his information on this site...and I am paying for it that it is stealing. If this is going to be a constant thing, then I have no reason to pay Accuweather 14.95 a month.

[terstorm1012]

I am wrong for feeling like if someone posts his information on this site...and I am paying for it that it is stealing. If this is going to be a constant thing, then I have no reason to pay Accuweather 14.95 a month.

In his view (and other online mets also share this view about their work too so don't see this as a bash) it is theft if taken verbatim. Don't post his posts verbatim. The law I think is still iffy in this area but it's better to err on the side of caution.

[no advance]

I can tell one thing. If you dont keep paying they will cut you off. That is what they did for me. Personally I think it is not worth it.

[no advance]

Oh yeah what did say today?

[Portastorm]

Extreme, while I applaud your efforts to keep folks updated on what JB is saying ... I do worry that we're encroaching upon dangerous ground. As has been indicated in previous posts here, JB's column and forecasts are a product that requires payment for purchase. If we're seeing even summaries of it on a daily basis, we're getting close (if not crossing over) "the line."

Given how many S2Kers appear to be Accuwx pro site subscribers, I believe there are enough of us that can add value when someone posts a "what's JB saying?" thread on any particular issue.

Furthermore, we all know what a flashpoint JB and his forecasts are ... and I also worry that a daily post on his comments would end up more often in flames than in fandom.

Just my .02.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme, while I applaud your efforts to keep folks updated on what JB is saying ... I do worry that we're encroaching upon dangerous ground. As has been indicated in previous posts here, JB's column and forecasts are a product that requires payment for purchase. If we're seeing even summaries of it on a daily basis, we're getting close (if not crossing over) "the line."

Given how many S2Kers appear to be Accuwx pro site subscribers, I believe there are enough of us that can add value when someone posts a "what's JB saying?" thread on any particular issue.

Furthermore, we all know what a flashpoint JB and his forecasts are ... and I also worry that a daily post on his comments would end up more often in flames than in fandom.


Just my .02.

I am not giving exact quotes from JB and I am also not giving you guys everything he is saying. Basically, I am just giving little snip-its of his daily posts (and I prob. will not give them everyday either) so that we can all understand where he is at. As for the flames being added, I think that those people who want to bash everything he says need to not post on this thread. This is not another thread to bash JB or accuweather. This thread is for those who really want to know what he has to say every now and then and offer opinions and thoughts regarding his ideas. However, if this does turn out to be a problem in any way...copyright infringement...people constantly bashing him, etc...then please feel free to lock this thread moderators.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Oh yeah what did say today?

His entire (brief) post this morning had to do with the "nor-easter" that is forecast to affect the NE tonight. Basically, he says to expect waves to 15 feet and rain totals as high as 5" from the storm.

[weatherwoman]

i read Joe and I enjoy what he has to say a lot of people say they like him but they sure keep up with what he is saying. So all those bashers out there just don't want to admit they read him or are interested in his forecaster

[Steve]

>>i read Joe and I enjoy what he has to say a lot of people say they like him but they sure keep up with what he is saying. So all those bashers out there just don't want to admit they read him or are interested in his forecaster

Indeed. And to some of the others, why bother? If your mom said not to say anything mean about someone, why relay that to everyone else? We all had moms, and we've all heard the cliche'. I think the thread could be interesting. Also, for the person who semi-derrided him for "a possible tropical storm in the Gulf in June", I do recall mid-May him saying that the last in the series of cold fronts in the 1st or 2nd week of June would leave behind a piece of energy that might threaten the Western Gulf/Texas Coast. It might not be an exact forecast, it isn't, but it's more than what anyone else was saying then about the first legitimate threat. If it doesn't pan out, it was nothing. If there's something down there after mid-late next week, then hey, there was some value into a month-out headsup IMHO (just not enough value for me to pay for the service anymore).

TPS

[stormchazer]

I agree that JB can get a little sensational in forecast and some times he "beats the horse" long after it died, but he takes chances with his forecast by looking at what may be coming together and suggesting what to watch for.

As long as one understands where he is coming from, I would strongly suggest you listen. His "suggested forecast" are based on all the factors that most Meteorologist use, are usually thoughtful, and are based on educated suggestions of what could happen. His only offense is that he actually makes a forecast long before all the other Mets are willing to make one. His forecast are not a sterile regurgitation of the NWS printed forecast. Sometimes he is wrong and sometimes he is right, but I do not need to post here the statistics on accuracy of a 7 day forecast to document that it is the best we can hope for out of any forecaster based on today's technologies.

Just my opinion.

[skysummit]

I thought this would be a thread to discuss what JB is saying....instead it has turned into the same ole' thing.