Long Range Forecast Model Discussion Thread

CHRISTY · #1 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:25 am

Iam really gonna keep my comments to myself on this one!

Here's the link!

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/community_blog.asp?webcaster=COMMUNITY&date=2006-05-22_1348

Camille_2_Katrina · #2 Postby **Camille_2_Katrina** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:27 am

all they are doing is showing GFS model..
no where is accuweather forcasting this...
:roll:

#3 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:29 am

Camille_2_Katrina wrote:all they are doing is showing GFS model..
no where is accuweather forcasting this...

Secondly that is the GFS model at hour 300

CHRISTY · #4 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:31 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Camille_2_Katrina wrote:all they are doing is showing GFS model..
no where is accuweather forcasting this...

Secondly that is the GFS model at hour 300

Thats exactly why iam keeping my comments to myself on this one. :wink:

mtm4319 · #5 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:32 am

Yeah, this isn't AccuWeather saying a storm will hit on 6/3. However, showing the GFS (or any) model without making clear that it's next to worthless at 12 1/2 days in advance is irresponsible.

#6 Postby **skysummit** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:32 am

*Edited: Didn't want to get accused of bashing.

Regit · #7 Postby **Regit** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:32 am

Edited: Nevermind 8-)

#8 Postby **terstorm1012** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:34 am

interesting.
which model run is this? Has it persisted from run to run? Any other models pick it up?
I'm going to keep a watch on it anyway even if it is 300 hours away. There is a pattern shift coming in the mid-to long range (week to two weeks) and the conditions *could* be right.

model watching can be fun though. :lol:

MiamiensisWx · #9 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:36 am

terstorm1012 wrote:There is a pattern shift coming in the mid-to long range (week to two weeks) and the conditions *could* be right.

What pattern shift?

#10 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:38 am

Honestly guys, this was just a blog posted at accuweather and should not be held up with a fine toothed comb and analyzed a great deal. I believe he was just saying that gfs was showing something in the future just like people on this site post about GFS showing some type of tropical development past 150+ hours.

CHRISTY · #11 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:38 am

Also notice that just of the CAROLINA'S the SST'S are around 73-74 degrees....so if somthing were to form it most likely not form into anything more than a tropical storm if that.

Camille_2_Katrina · #12 Postby **Camille_2_Katrina** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:45 am

the title of this thread is very missleading. Accuweather is not saying a TS will
hit SC on June 3rd...

#13 Postby **terstorm1012** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:51 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
terstorm1012 wrote:There is a pattern shift coming in the mid-to long range (week to two weeks) and the conditions *could* be right.

What pattern shift?

I should clarify (though I already talked to CVW in private

) that the pattern shift was overall, warm weather finally for the northeast and mid-Atlantic. Not my forecast but I saw it on the news this morning and at another weather site that I surf.

Stratusxpeye · #14 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:58 am

Just the GFS 300 Hours out. I wouldnt put too much into it. Title is misleading though on this thread.

x-y-no · #15 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:59 am

Hmmm ... didn't even know AccuWx had a blog ...

Anyway, this appears to be from this morning's 6z run. There's no feature like that on either the 0z run or last night's 18z run. And as mentioned above, it's at 300 hours, so essentially just noise.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 22, 2006 11:03 am

Christy,I fixed the title of thread.

CHRISTY · #17 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 22, 2006 11:20 am

cycloneye wrote:Christy,I fixed the title of thread.

thanks!

#18 Postby **terstorm1012** » Mon May 22, 2006 11:22 am

x-y-no wrote:Hmmm ... didn't even know AccuWx had a blog ...

Anyway, this appears to be from this morning's 6z run. There's no feature like that on either the 0z run or last night's 18z run. And as mentioned above, it's at 300 hours, so essentially just noise.

yeah they started their blog last spring. It'd be super cool if they offered comments like other blogs and then responded to the comments, but it's their blog and they can do what they want with it.

Stratusxpeye · #19 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon May 22, 2006 11:26 am

CHRISTY wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Christy,I fixed the title of thread.

thanks!

yes thanks! Much better now

#20 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon May 22, 2006 11:28 am

While we are talking GFS output, the GFS is showing a tropical system in the BoC over the weekend...coming up from the Pacific.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_096m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_144m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_168m.gif

As far as the other event...the GFS starts to show it in 240 hours in the western Caribbean. It then moves NNE towards SC in 300 hours. Granted...that's a long time away...and probably an anomaly. We'll see. I'm more interested in what the GFS is seeing move up from the Pacific in less than 5 days...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_240m.gif

Long Range Forecast Model Discussion Thread

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