http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2005.pdf
A long verification report so go thru it slowly and any comments about it can be posted here.
NHC Verification Report of 2005 season (At pdf form)
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cycloneye
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NHC Verification Report of 2005 season (At pdf form)
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Couple of interesting take aways from the first quick look over:
1. It is interesting that the vector errors (track forecasts can be wrong if the forward speed or the vector (direction) are off) showed a northwest bias through 72 hours (too fast and north, think initial Wilma forecasts for those who remember) and north and northeast biases on days 4 and 5. Like 2004, the NHC forecasts overdid recurve projections, perhaps somewhat based on experience gained from the active period with all sorts of recurving stoms from 1995 to 2003.
2. GUNA and CONU still beat the OFCL track at almost every time but the gap is small, probably owning to what Dr Avila mentioned a couple of weeks ago. The NHC can't move their track around back and forth like the models do, so it takes a couple of forecast cycles to adjust to a trend after the models start to converge.
MW
1. It is interesting that the vector errors (track forecasts can be wrong if the forward speed or the vector (direction) are off) showed a northwest bias through 72 hours (too fast and north, think initial Wilma forecasts for those who remember) and north and northeast biases on days 4 and 5. Like 2004, the NHC forecasts overdid recurve projections, perhaps somewhat based on experience gained from the active period with all sorts of recurving stoms from 1995 to 2003.
2. GUNA and CONU still beat the OFCL track at almost every time but the gap is small, probably owning to what Dr Avila mentioned a couple of weeks ago. The NHC can't move their track around back and forth like the models do, so it takes a couple of forecast cycles to adjust to a trend after the models start to converge.
MW
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