Of course there are just predictions and we all know how those go. Hopefully NOTHING will affect Texas.
Texas likely will be hurricane-prone in '06
By BETH GALLASPY, The Enterprise
05/16/2006
Texas coastal residents likely will feel the first blows of another busy hurricane season this year, according to forecasters at a commercial weather service.
Five hurricanes and one tropical storm are expected to hit the U.S. coast this year, according to an AccuWeather.com forecast released Monday.
"Early in the season - June and July - the Texas Gulf Coast faces the highest likelihood of a hurricane strike, possibly putting Gulf energy production in the line of fire," Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi said in a news release.
The bull's-eye moves to the Carolinas in July, then to the Northeast coast from mid-August to early October and finally to southern Florida at the end of the season, according to the news release.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. In last year's record-breaking season, the last of the 27 named storms, Tropical Storm Zeta, formed in late December.
Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist, said the Texas coast has been largely spared from hurricanes in recent years, other than last year's Hurricane Rita. With the weather patterns at play now, Texas is more likely to face another hit early this season, Rayno said by telephone.
"That doesn't mean that it can't occur in August," Rayno said.
Rayno said AccuWeather forecasters use historical information and data about winds in the upper and middle part of the atmosphere, which steer hurricanes, to aid in their predictions.
Warm temperatures in the Gulf and Atlantic, along with cooling Pacific Ocean temperatures, likely will contribute to another active season, Rayno said. AccuWeather.com is predicting a total of 17 named storms with six making U.S. landfall, he said.
The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University also has predicted 17 named storms this season. That forecast does not include landfall predictions.
An updated forecast from Colorado State is expected May 31. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is due next week.
Jefferson County Emergency Management Coordinator John Cascio said predictions of early season activity in the Gulf falls in line with normal weather patterns. However, those early storms that form in the Gulf and make landfall quickly normally are less powerful than late-season storms, he said.
"It doesn't have to be major hurricane to be a major headache," Cascio said.
Tropical storms and less intense hurricanes can bring heavy rains and flooding, as Tropical Storm Allison did in 2001.
"You don't have the headache of having to evacuate and the real strong winds that are going to knock down the trees and tear up the houses," Cascio said.
If Southeast Texas does suffer another major blow this year, the impact could be especially devastating for homes, apartment complexes and small businesses that suffered during Hurricane Rita, Cascio noted.
"Another major hurricane would just compound the problems that they're having getting back on their feet," Cascio said.
bgallaspy@beaumontenterprise.com
(409) 880-0726
©The Beaumont Enterprise 2006
http://www.zwire.com/site/index.cfm?new ... 2588&rfi=8
