Experts: Global warming behind 2005 hurricanes

[Aquawind]

MONTEREY, California (Reuters) -- The record Atlantic hurricane season last year can be attributed to global warming, several top experts, including a leading U.S. government storm researcher, said on Monday.

"The hurricanes we are seeing are indeed a direct result of climate change and it's no longer something we'll see in the future, it's happening now," said Greg Holland, a division director at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

Holland told a packed hall at the American Meteorological Society's 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology that the wind and warmer water conditions that fuel storms that form in the Caribbean are "increasingly due to greenhouse gases. There seems to be no other conclusion you can logically draw."

His conclusion will be debated throughout the week-long conference, as other researchers present opposing papers that say changing wind and temperature conditions in the tropics are due to natural events, not the accumulation of carbon dioxide emissions clouding the Earth.

Many of the experts gathered in the coastal city of Monterey, California, are federal employees. The Bush administration contends global warming is an unproven theory.

While many of the conference's 500 scientists seem to agree that a warming trend in the tropics is causing more and stronger hurricanes than usual, not all agree that global warming is to blame.

Some, like William Gray, a veteran hurricane researcher at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, attributed the warming to natural cycles.

Gray said he believes salinity buildups and movements with ocean currents cause warming and cooling cycles. He predicted the Caribbean water will continue to warm for another five to 10 years, then start cooling.

More warming to come
Whatever the cause, computer projections indicate the warming to date -- about one degree Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius) in tropical water -- is "the tip of the iceberg" and the water will warm three to four times as much in the next century, said Thomas Knutson, explaining projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey.

Adam Lea, a postdoctoral student at Britain's University College London in Dorking, Surrey, presented research based on British, German, Russian and Canadian studies that concludes half of the increased hurricane activity in the tropics could be attributed to global warming.

Holland, director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the federal research center, said tropical storm anomalies in the 1940s and 1950s can be explained by natural variability.

But he said carbon dioxide started changing traceable patterns in the 1970s and by the early 1990s, the atmospheric results were affecting the storm numbers and intensities.

"What we're seeing right now in global climate temperature is a signature of climate change," said Holland, a native of Australia. "The large bulk of the scientific community say what we are seeing now is linked directly to greenhouse gases."

Hurricane Katrina, which tore onto the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts on August 29, was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in 77 years and the costliest ever, with property damages estimated at $75 billion.

This year, the weather service's Tropical Prediction Center expects more hurricanes than usual, but not as many as last year's record 14.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/04 ... index.html

Sounds like an entirely different story than we got from the 2006 Hurricane Conference a couple weeks ago.. Certainly some opposite opinons in Colorado.. Dr. Gray and Mr Holland no doubt. Greenhouse gases were barely mentioned in Orlando. Looks like it's the word of the week in Cali..

[stormtruth]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm not sure I buy this conclusion. After all the 1970s, 1980s, and first half of the 1990s were all (for the most part anyway) record warm years too, yet there were very few hurricanes. I think it may have played a part in how strong the storms were, but I doubt it was the most important factor in there being so many. I mean you can have the warmest ocean in the world, and if you have huge amounts of shear, it just doesn't matter that much because you will not have a large number of TCs.

[x-y-no]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject.

I don't know if that's a fair assesment. Dr. Gray has a strong opinion based on his long experience in the field of seasonal prediction. I think he's wrong about a number of his objections, but that doesn't mean he's not open-minded.

Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Never is a long time. Emanuel in your link says for the next hundred years.

[Air Force Met]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Hmmm...Maybe people after the 30's - the 60's thought that too...and then came the 70's and 80's.

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

No...couldn't be. Guess we will know in 20 years.

[gtalum]

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

Even with teh known cyclical nature of our planet's climate, it's clear that over the last several centuries (especially the last one) the planet has warmed. Global warming does not imply a lack of cycles.

[Gtmalacd]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Hmmm...Maybe people after the 30's - the 60's thought that too...and then came the 70's and 80's.

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

No...couldn't be. Guess we will know in 20 years.

Air Force Met, I mean no disrespect, but if you are insinuating cyclical weather patterns as the cause of atmospheric changes we are experiencing, then that is to say for example that we are alone in the universe. To me not you, that is ignorant thinking. The theory of Global Warming as been on the plate for years, and we have even suggested that other planets have gone through some sort of global warming themselves re Mars. However, there is too much data out there to suggest simply global warming is the culprit. ONe has to take in all kinds of factors (volcanoes, earthquakes, etc). Just my observation...

[stormtruth]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Hmmm...Maybe people after the 30's - the 60's thought that too...and then came the 70's and 80's.

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

No...couldn't be. Guess we will know in 20 years.

They include cycles by saying the current pattern of numerous powerful canes is the cycle Gray refers to + global warming. Gray just thinks it is the cycle and not cycle+gw.

[Air Force Met]

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

Even with teh known cyclical nature of our planet's climate, it's clear that over the last several centuries (especially the last one) the planet has warmed. Global warming does not imply a lack of cycles.

The problem is not really global warming or cycles...it's the agenda and the lack of perspective behind it.

The problem with blaming the 2005 season on global warming is a lack of persepctive. When you look at the 1933 season...who do you blame that on? Look at a map of where those storms occured. How many went undetected east of 50W...because there are none on the map...but you can be sure there were some.

And we don't know how many storms were there 700 years ago...every season during the last peak of Atlantic hurricane activity. Research shows it was much greater than today.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Gtm, you are completely off base. AFM and others brought up EXCELLENT points.

Not to mention, if it is due to global warming strictly and not these so-called "cycles," then why are other basins around the globe facing a decrease in tropical cyclone activity?

In the 1970s, there was a period of time where the NIO basin was churning out monster storms, one of which killed 350,000-750,000 people I believe (depending on who is doing the counting)

Now, there are hardly any that strong. And in the West Pacific, last season was one of the quietest in years.

So you tell me where the contradiction lies in the global warming statement.


There has to be a cycle somewhere. Period. Global warming IS contributing *slightly* (i.e., this active cycle seems to be much more active than the previous active cycle).

[Air Force Met]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Hmmm...Maybe people after the 30's - the 60's thought that too...and then came the 70's and 80's.

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

No...couldn't be. Guess we will know in 20 years.

Air Force Met, I mean no disrespect, but if you are insinuating cyclical weather patterns as the cause of atmospheric changes we are experiencing, then that is to say for example that we are alone in the universe. To me not you, that is ignorant thinking. The theory of Global Warming as been on the plate for years, and we have even suggested that other planets have gone through some sort of global warming themselves re Mars. However, there is too much data out there to suggest simply global warming is the culprit. ONe has to take in all kinds of factors (volcanoes, earthquakes, etc). Just my observation...

I do not disagree with global warming...it is not an issue. the CAUSE is the issue. Yes...Mars is warming...at the same rate. Hmmm.

Could it be the Sun? There's a concept. The problem I have with the debate is the Global Warming sides (usually environmentalists) attitude of its all man-made...without respect to cycles and other possible causes. Truly man can effect his environment. However, to suggest that is the only reason is ignorant thinking and is usually agenda based...and one only has to look at history to see the wild fluctuations in temps over very short periods of time to prove it. And yes...then there is Mars warming at the same rate as us...and there aren't any SUV's there.

[Aquawind]

Being this thread is about to be comsumed with GW I want to remind EVERYONE.

NO POLITICS..

P.S. We actually have another good GW thread on the Global Weather Forum..Frankly I would rather keep the GW discussion alone to that forum but that's probably asking a bit much.. This thread subject is Global Warming and Hurricanes and that's why it's in this forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82551

Let's play nice now EVERYONE...

[joseph01]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Hmmm...Maybe people after the 30's - the 60's thought that too...and then came the 70's and 80's.

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

No...couldn't be. Guess we will know in 20 years.

Air Force Met, I mean no disrespect, but if you are insinuating cyclical weather patterns as the cause of atmospheric changes we are experiencing, then that is to say for example that we are alone in the universe. To me not you, that is ignorant thinking. The theory of Global Warming as been on the plate for years, and we have even suggested that other planets have gone through some sort of global warming themselves re Mars. However, there is too much data out there to suggest simply global warming is the culprit. ONe has to take in all kinds of factors (volcanoes, earthquakes, etc). Just my observation...

Hmmmm...I think I can safely assume that you have not read many of AFM's posts. I doubt he is even CAPABLE of ignorant thinking. For this reason, you have inadverently cast the shadow of ignorance on yourself, my friend. And at least he makes the effort to engage you zealots.

[Aquawind]

EVERYONE Please Stop with the ignorant and zealots comments NOW !!

[Gtmalacd]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Hmmm...Maybe people after the 30's - the 60's thought that too...and then came the 70's and 80's.

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

No...couldn't be. Guess we will know in 20 years.

Air Force Met, I mean no disrespect, but if you are insinuating cyclical weather patterns as the cause of atmospheric changes we are experiencing, then that is to say for example that we are alone in the universe. To me not you, that is ignorant thinking. The theory of Global Warming as been on the plate for years, and we have even suggested that other planets have gone through some sort of global warming themselves re Mars. However, there is too much data out there to suggest simply global warming is the culprit. ONe has to take in all kinds of factors (volcanoes, earthquakes, etc). Just my observation...

I do not disagree with global warming...it is not an issue. the CAUSE is the issue. Yes...Mars is warming...at the same rate. Hmmm.

Could it be the Sun? There's a concept. The problem I have with the debate is the Global Warming sides (usually environmentalists) attitude of its all man-made...without respect to cycles and other possible causes. Truly man can effect his environment. However, to suggest that is the only reason is ignorant thinking and is usually agenda based...and one only has to look at history to see the wild fluctuations in temps over very short periods of time to prove it. And yes...then there is Mars warming at the same rate as us...and there aren't any SUV's there.

\

I never said, it was warming at the same rate. Jumping to conclusions is a very dangerous game.

[Gtmalacd]

Dr. Gray is not very open minded on the subject. Other experts think there will never be another calm hurricane decade again.

Hmmm...Maybe people after the 30's - the 60's thought that too...and then came the 70's and 80's.

MAYBE...just MAYBE..the global WARMING scientists aren't very open minded on the subject of cycles. Could that be it?

No...couldn't be. Guess we will know in 20 years.

Air Force Met, I mean no disrespect, but if you are insinuating cyclical weather patterns as the cause of atmospheric changes we are experiencing, then that is to say for example that we are alone in the universe. To me not you, that is ignorant thinking. The theory of Global Warming as been on the plate for years, and we have even suggested that other planets have gone through some sort of global warming themselves re Mars. However, there is too much data out there to suggest simply global warming is the culprit. ONe has to take in all kinds of factors (volcanoes, earthquakes, etc). Just my observation...

Hmmmm...I think I can safely assume that you have not read many of AFM's posts. I doubt he is even CAPABLE of ignorant thinking. For this reason, you have inadverently cast the shadow of ignorance on yourself, my friend. And at least he makes the effort to engage you zealots.

easy play nice....

[HURAKAN]

I think Global Warming must be having some type of role, but I still need more evidence to jump and argue that Global Warming should be blamed. Maybe the 2006 hurricane season will provide me with such evidence!

[SouthFloridawx]

everytime...

[OuterBanker]

That proves it. Mars is warming too. Just as I had suspected. I always have said that people who live in California are from another planet (I do have a brother and sister who live there too and I swear they have been brainwashed by Martians). Yep it's the Martians that have caused global warming and all the hurricanes in the past few years. Do You really think that Jane Fonda and Nancy Pelousi are from this planet. Arnold is okay, I think he's from Venus (can't quite figure out the accent).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

There is building forensic evidence that the strongest Hurricane to hit New England for example, actually occurred in 1635 (and was at least a strong cat 3, and probably even a cat 4). I bet that if another hit this year (I sure hope not), everyone not in the know would blame Global Warming for causing a Monster 'cane to hit so far North. Totally ignorant of the fact that it happened before. We know so little about hurricanes, and the cycles that may control them.