El Nino vs Neutral vs La Nina

[Jim Cantore]

I put together lists of famous Hurricanes from each Group

El Nino

Audrey
Betsy
Camille
Agnes
Bob



Neutral

Labor Day Hurricane
Carol
Edna
Hazel
Donna
Carla
David
Frederic
Allen
Alicia
Diana
Elena
Gloria
Hugo
Andrew
Opal
Fran
Isabel
Charley
Frances
Ivan
Jeanne
Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Wilma? (depending)

La Nina

Long Island Express
Fort Lauderdale
Connie
Diane
Celia
Eloise
Gilbert
Georges
Mitch
Floyd
Wilma? (I hear La Nina showed up in october?)

overly active seasons

1933, 1995, and 2005 were all neutral

[Jim Cantore]

I doubled checked these too

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the September 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane might have occurred in a neutral year, although we have had little accurate data until recently.

[Jim Cantore]

I have that checked, it says la nina

[SouthFloridawx]

Since 1951

Average Storms
El Nino 7.455
La Nina 11.417
Neutral 10.969

AVERAGE CAT 1
El Nino 7.455
La Nina 11.417
Neutral 10.969

AVERAGE CAT 2
El Nino 0.636
La Nina 1.167
Neutral 1.219

AVERAGE CAT 3
El Nino 0.364
La Nina 1.667
Neutral 1.406

AVERAGE CAT 4
El Nino 0.545
La Nina 1.250
Neutral 1.063

AVERAGE CAT 5
El Nino 0.182
La Nina 0.417
Neutral 0.406

AVERAGE TROPICAL STORMS
El Nino 4.000
La Nina 4.833
Neutral 4.156


AVERAGE US HITS
El Nino 2.727
La Nina 3.417
Neutral 3.344


AVERAGE NON US HITS
El Nino 4.727
La Nina 8.000
Neutral 7.625

[Jim Cantore]

cat 5's

El Nino: 4
Neutral: 16
La Nina: 7
Unknown: 2

[SouthFloridawx]

cat 5's

El Nino: 4
Neutral: 16
La Nina: 7
Unknown: 2

I actually have the info you are looking for.

[SouthFloridawx]

you give me the years you want and I'll give you the storms

[Jim Cantore]

Billion dollar Hurricanes

El Nino: 5
Neutral: 18
La NIna: 3

10 Billion Dollar Hurricanes

El Nino: 1
Neutral: 5
La Nina: 0

North Carolina Hurricanes

El Nino: 6
Neutral: 20
La Nina: 7

East coast of Florida Hurricanes

El nino: 4
Neutral: 9
La Nina: 3

New England Hurricanes

El Nino: 4
Neutral: 8
La Nina: 1

Texas Hurricanes

El Nino: 3
Neutral: 19
La Nina: 5

Florida Panhandle Hurricanes

El Nino: 4
Neutral: 6
La Nina: 3

This is intresting

Louisiana Hurricanes

El Nino: 8
Neutral: 8
La Nina: 8

[CHRISTY]

we better worry if NEUTRAL condition come into play which i expect to happen in the near future....

[benny]

I put together lists of famous Hurricanes from each Group

El Nino

Audrey
Betsy
Camille
Agnes
Bob
Andrew


Neutral

Labor Day Hurricane
Carol
Edna
Hazel
Donna
Carla
David
Frederic
Allen
Alicia
Diana
Elena
Gloria
Hugo
Opal
Fran
Isabel
Charley
Frances
Ivan
Jeanne
Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Wilma? (depending)

La Nina

Long Island Express
Fort Lauderdale
Connie
Diane
Celia
Eloise
Gilbert
Georges
Mitch
Floyd
Wilma? (I hear La Nina showed up in october?)

overly active seasons

1933, 1995, and 2005 were all neutral

I have a problem with some of your characterizations. One of the biggest myths out there is that Hurricane Andrew occurred during an El Nino. It simply isn't true. Look at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

During ASO the anomaly of Nino 3.4 was -0.1C. In fact the SSTs fell below 0.5C in June of 1992. The El Nino was long over by the time Andrew came around.

Carol Edna and Hazel were all in La Nina years. Take a look at the chart. One huge problem out there is that the Japanese Meteorological Agency has a definition that is not relevant to hurricane season. They classify a year based on the next winter, so that it is very deceiving. Carla is a borderline La Nina event according to CPC. Opal was also in a borderline La Nina event. Take a look:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

How did you classify the years? It is very important to make that distinction. Anything that hit in 2004 was technically a weak El Nino.

[SouthFloridawx]

Benny so we would only say it was a la nina/el nino/neutral if those conditions were present during the time that the hurricane struck or during hurricane season in the atlantic?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

benny, the above is a much more accurate representation of Nino region anomalies that also include the Nino 1+2 region, which is VERY important to consider for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. It was a general neutral year throughout all Nino regions in 1992, with cooler/neutral anomalies in 1+2 and 3, but warmer anomalies in 4. However, you are inaccurate with your characterization of 2004. The overall condition of all Nino regions was neutral, with very cool anomalies in the Nino 1+2 region.

[NONAME]

we better worry if NEUTRAL condition come into play which i expect to happen in the near future....

Um Were do i start. OK well the reason there has been more storm lately is low wind shear and above average SST. Also there have been more storm and hurricane all together in neutral year but if u average la Nina neutral and El Nino year together the la Nina would average more storm than neutral and el nino would be the least. The reason being more storm in La nina Year is the circulation in the Atmosphere lowers wind shear over the Atlantic and in neutral years there is no circulation and it has normal wind shear depending on the setup of the Highs and lows and in El nino years the circulation couses the Wind shear to be higher in the Atlantic so if you want to be worried about anything it would be the la nina because as I said before lowers the wind shear.

[CHRISTY]

we better worry if NEUTRAL condition come into play which i expect to happen in the near future....

Um Were do i start. OK well the reason there has been more storm lately is low wind shear and above average SST. Also there have been more storm and hurricane all together in neutral year but if u average la Nina neutral and El Nino year together the la Nina would average more storm than neutral and el nino would be the least. The reason being more storm in La nina Year is the circulation in the Atmosphere lowers wind shear over the Atlantic and in neutral years there is no circulation and it has normal wind shear depending on the setup of the Highs and lows and in El nino years the circulation couses the Wind shear to be higher in the Atlantic so if you want to be worried about anything it would be the la nina because as I said before lowers the wind shear.

i think in general we should all be ready for this increase activity to continue for years to come....

[HurricaneHunter914]

It seems like Neutral years are like La Ninas and La Ninas are like nuetrals.

[benny]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

benny, the above is a much more accurate representation of Nino region anomalies that also include the Nino 1+2 region, which is VERY important to consider for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. It was a general neutral year throughout all Nino regions in 1992, with cooler/neutral anomalies in 1+2 and 3, but warmer anomalies in 4. However, you are inaccurate with your characterization of 2004. The overall condition of all Nino regions was neutral, with very cool anomalies in the Nino 1+2 region.

I am saying that CPC uses Nino 3.4 as its El Nino definition. There is good reason for this. Water temperatures almost never get warm enough to generate convection in Nino 1+2 (an important feedback mechanism for the Nin). Historically speaking Nino 3.4 is the area that best defines an ENSO using SST only. I have seen nothing that says that Nino 1+2 is an important for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. 1998 is a great example of this. The 1994 El Nino is a reverse example.. ie very cold in Nino 1+2 and warm in 3.4. The highest correlation is in the central/e pacific.. not close to S America.

[benny]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

However, you are inaccurate with your characterization of 2004. The overall condition of all Nino regions was neutral, with very cool anomalies in the Nino 1+2 region.

Also I stand by the characterization of the ASO of 2004 as a weak El Nino. It wasn't much different than the El Nino of 1994 during the summer. Warm in the west and cool in the east. The difference was the warmth of the North Atlantic Ocean.. like 2C warmer in places. the definition of El Nino is not an average of all indices. 1+2 is in a way a legacy index.. when El Ninos had a tendency to start from the east (Rasmusson Carpenter type).

When you see Nino forecasts.. they are always of the central pacific. This is the area that will feedback into the atmosphere and can cause significant global circulation changes. Rarely do you see any forecasts of any area but Nino 3,3.4 or 4.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... dvfig6.gif

Any references for showing the importance of Nino 1+2 in Atlantic hurricanes?

[GeneratorPower]

we better worry if NEUTRAL condition come into play which i expect to happen in the near future....

The fact that so many occurred in NEUTRAL years isn't cause for alarm. There were a WHOLE LOT more years where conditions were neutral so there was more chance of hurricanes forming, just by sheer numbers.

[Weatherfreak000]

This is intresting

Louisiana Hurricanes

El Nino: 8
Neutral: 8
La Nina: 8

Wow...that is really interesting and scary as well