Special statement from NHC

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:02 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIADSAAT.shtml

It wont be a TD by 11 AM according to this statement as it has less organization right now.To me it is at least a TD right now but what are the opinions of all about the system right now?

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:05 am

I don't think it is a TD right now - its losing something - like its deepening powers. I think we will all just have to wait and watch and see if this wave can battle the elements around it and develop anymore. Don't know if recon is going to fly today or not - might just rely on the islands observations as the wave passes over.

Just my two cents.

Patricia

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:26 am

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIADSAAT.shtml

It wont be a TD by 11 AM according to this statement as it has less organization right now.To me it is at least a TD right now but what are the opinions of all about the system right now?

I agree luis..what gives??? :roll:

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:32 am

As I read this - why the special statement - why not wait until the 11 am update to say this - are that many people expecting it to be a TD now or calling for it?

Interesting to say the least on how things are flowing with this system.

Wxman or Mwatkins - what are ya'lls take on this system?

Patricia

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:33 am

Ticka recon is going early this afternoon to investigate to see what they can find if anything.

The_Cycloman_PR · #6 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:38 am

Sorry Ticka! Respecfully It sure look's like a TD right now, not as well organized than yesterday but a TD at least. It mantain a good circulation pattern and deep convection around the center, also the system has grown to almost double the size it had last night and it's closing to land areas. With a system so close to the island I think it would be responsible to make some type of bulletin for watchs, or warnings for the people to be prepared for bad weather. Those people on Barbados will get very strong winds, posible at tropical storm strengh and very heavy rain soon!, but from just a tropical wave!!.

You know something? Back in 1985, in the month of October here in PR we had a tremendous tropical wave (It was a TD but without that classification), and because of it was only a wave our people did not gived the right attention to it and that night we had one of the worst disasters we have ever seen here!! Mameyes!!! That night in the municipality of Ponce, Mameyes sector, a mud slide burried hundreds of residents that were sleeping, killing a big number of people. We had 23 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. Later, when it was southwest of us it was upgraded from a tropical wave into Tropical Storm Isabel jumping the TD status!! If we only could have a TD clasification before it reached us or a TS warning for PR, those residents could been removed before the impact, we could be better prepared that day!

Respecfully...If this system (Today's one) was in the Gulf about 200 milles or less south of Texas, Luisiana or somewhere else in US it will be already upgraded into a TD or even a TS status!!

Just like happened with Bill. It look's better than Bill already, even yesterday!

Just my two cents! With all my respect to you all!

Cycloman

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:39 am

It is definitely weaker than when I first checked it early today. That is strange considering this is the time of day we usually see convection increase. Still definitley a TD imo even though I thought it was TS Claudette earlier.

#8 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:45 am

It has definitely weakened in the past 2-3 hours. Definitely not a TS now, but most likely a TD. Was interesting to watch Joe Bastardi's take on it at Accuweather. He pulled no punches, as always. :wink:

I estimate a forward speed close to 20kts, that puts it near St. Vincent by sunset today and well into the eastern Caribbean by sunrise tomorrow. The rapid movement should hinder any intensification for the next few days. Beyond 72 hours, if it survives then the Gulf had better watch out!

Colin · #9 Postby **Colin** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:05 am

In my opinion, I think it's a TD now...dunno why the NHC is not reflecting this. Hmmmmmm...they must see something that we don't.

#10 Postby **wx247** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:12 am

Still looks organized to be a TD IMO. Barbados has seen winds of around 35 mph already. Maybe it will take a recon. mission to classify this system.

Colin · #11 Postby **Colin** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:20 am

That's what I'm thinking right now, Garrett...once the recon. goes in, I think it will be classified as a TD.

Special statement from NHC

Special statement from NHC

Re: Special statement from NHC

Agreed

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