Drought-how will it affect the upcoming hurricane season?

[cajungal]

First of all, I can't believe hurricane season will be here again in only 6 more weeks! I can't believe how fast this year has flew by! We are in a drought here in SE Louisiana. We had a very mild winter and now we are expected to be in the mid 80's all week. I don't remember the last time it rained here. And no rain is expected in the forecast all week! What effect will this have on the hurricane season along the gulf coast? Or will it not matter at all? I am hoping to have a mild season after what we went through last year.

[skysummit]

Dunno CG. I do know that the cracks in the ground are starting to get bigger than the pot holes we have in the streets though! Monday we'll be pushing 90 degrees. This is giving ample time for the GOM to continue to warm quickly.

A few days ago, one of the local mets (I don't remember which one) did mention that when we have a mild winter, and drought conditions during the spring, not 1 hurricane has hit the gulf coast. I don't know if that's true or not though. Anyone else hear the same?

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the met means this, skysummit. Models are now hinting at a long-term potential pattern change, with a negative NAO and heat ridge over the Great Plains forecast to set up. This type of pattern tends to be typical of a La Nina year. It also tends to result in a pattern in which we have a strong Atlantic ridge that is located further to the east as the Azores High, resulting in a 1996/1999 (not 2004/2005) pattern. This tends to mean a strong trough located right off the southeast/eastern U.S. coast, meaning that most storms (which will be more Cape Verde-type storms that form far east in a La Nina pattern like this) will likely curve away from Florida and miss the U.S. eastern coast or, if they make landfall, hit the Carolinas (e.g., a 1996/1999 pattern; both were La Nina years). This tends to be some good news for eastern/western Florida and the Gulf coast, since the two main steering ridges will be further to the east and west; however, this pattern means the western Gulf (Texas and Mexico) tend to be under the gun, though. The big question is this: will this pattern last into July/August/September? That is too early to tell. This pattern may change by then; so far, though, it may be some good news for you and us if this pattern holds! It will be VERY bad for North Carolina, the Leeward Islands, and far western Gulf (Texas and Mexico), however.

NOTE - As a side note, while east hits are less common in La Nina years, Florida tends to receive more southwest hits during La Nina years than during neutral/El Nino years. Maybe this a balancing effect!

Hope this has helped. Any thoughts?

You can see a very clear climatological pattern from the La Nina years of 1996 and 1999 on the maps below...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I recall reading in the 1954 Hurricane Season Report recently, that it was a year that also saw widespread drought conditions in most of Eastern North America. The number of cyclones in this cases were down, but on the negative side three hurricanes struck the Eastern Seaboard; Carol (cat 2) New England, Edna (cat 3) Eastern New England, and Hazel (cat 4) Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, North East and Southern Ontario. Some food for thought.

[skysummit]

Hmm....pretty interesting. Thanks for the input! Makes sense to me!

[windycity]

Great post, CVw!!! We will just have to see where the ridge sets up later this summer, im not sure i hold stock in dry May, strong ridge theory,but it was true in 04.

[CHRISTY]

Great post, CVw!!! We will just have to see where the ridge sets up later this summer, im not sure i hold stock in dry May, strong ridge theory,but it was true in 04.

i dont think drought conditions have anything to do with what might be coming this hurricane season.typically during LA NINA years the jet stream rides further north and prevents fronts to come very far south there for outside the the rainy season we are dry down here in the southeast.everything i have heard actually indicates that there might be a strong ridge during 2006 but then again we will see.this is just my opinion on things my advise just be ready for another active season in 2006.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I have to agree with CVW, 2004 also had a drought like condition and then came Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. I think Florida will be seeing dejavue.

[CHRISTY]

I have to agree with CVW, 2004 also had a drought like condition and then came Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. I think Florida will be seeing dejavue.

that is not a good statement to be saying because u dont want to give floridians a false sence of security.u have to prepare no matter what...thats why there only predictions nobody knows what truely is going to happen in 2006.but i guess everybody has there own opinion on what might happen in 2006 thats why i love STORM2K.

[MiamiensisWx]

I have to add that there seems to be a tendency for Florida to get hit by tropical storms (and some hurricanes) from the southwest A LOT during some probable La Nina years. Never let your guard down... even tropical storms can be very destructive!

[terstorm1012]

Also----and not sure if this has been realized----but last year there was widespread drought and near drought in Eastern North America---however the Atlantic pattern was more like a WestPac monsoonal trough.

It was that 9 days last October when it wouldn't stop raining (thanks to Tammy, and later Wilma) that made up for it...but if that rain hadn't come, we'd probably see full blown drought now across eastern North America.

[corpusbreeze]

We here in South Texas have been in a severe drought since last September. We need the rain in a big time way. Im not saying we here need a hurricane to end our drought, but is at a point that if we dont get any rain from now and into the summer, a small cane might be of some help. Also I have theory that a drought in Texas helps protect us from a major hurricane. We can get hit by a hurricane but a cat 5 would almost be impossible because of the dry air being sucked in across the dry plains of Texas and Northern Mexico. I believe this is one reason not many cat 4/5 canes have made landfall on the south Texas coast.

[gatorcane]

its all speculation at this point as I have learned. The drought means very little, models forecasting a negative NAO are just short-term. We just don't know. It's a wait and see game. Best thing is to be prepared regardless.

BTW - South Florida gets hit more from the South than the East. So don't take that for granted!

[cajungal]

I still considered 2004 to be a mild winter. It snowed here on Christmas Day and we picked up an inch in accumalation. But, after that we had a warm up. Christmas was the only real cold shot that came through. Then, came Katrina and Rita. And we know it only takes a strong tropical storm to flood southern Terrebonne Parish.

[Jim Cantore]

I predicted for a drought summer in my area, due to the mild La Nina and what happened in 1999.

that drought built over a 6-9 month period.... and ended in a 12 hour period on September the 16th.

However I also believe we will see a Gloria/Floyd like Hurricane this year, Floyd was SOMEWHAT of a blessing because that drought had gotten pretty bad, only drought tollarent plants such as sunflowers and tomatoes weren't shriveling up. However too much rain too fast caused record flooding and unfourtuneatly killed 6 people in New Jersey alone and 57 overall, still deadly by todays standards.

Sometimes when droughts get bad, Hurricanes become helpers due to the fact that I cant think of a better source of rain which will always deliver but............. the side effects just arent worth it.

here are the best drought enders (in my opinion)

1. Tropical storms (not Hurricanes)
2. Remnents of tropical systems
3. Blizzards (if the drought goes into winter)
4. Slow cold front (not stalled)
5. Coastal storms (trust me, these things can dump a ton of rain/snow)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The bad thing is that hurricanes sometimes seem to target the drought-stricken areas, and sadly those areas look to be along the Gulf coast this year...especially in Texas. Because of this, I am worried that we will see another record breaking Gulf coast season.

[Jim Cantore]

The bad thing is that hurricanes sometimes seem to target the drought-stricken areas, and sadly those areas look to be along the Gulf coast this year...especially in Texas. Because of this, I am worried that we will see another record breaking Gulf coast season.

And if storms target the east coast of Florida you always worry about them crossing over into the gulf, this season may target many areas.

[CHRISTY]

The bad thing is that hurricanes sometimes seem to target the drought-stricken areas, and sadly those areas look to be along the Gulf coast this year...especially in Texas. Because of this, I am worried that we will see another record breaking Gulf coast season.

And if storms target the east coast of Florida you always worry about them crossing over into the gulf, this season may target many areas.

yea very true after the cross florida they get into the gulf and then there's no way out with out affecting some part of land.

[AussieMark]

The bad thing is that hurricanes sometimes seem to target the drought-stricken areas, and sadly those areas look to be along the Gulf coast this year...especially in Texas. Because of this, I am worried that we will see another record breaking Gulf coast season.

I think in 1999 a lot of Midatlantic was in drought during the spring and summer then came Dennis and Floyd

and we know what happened after that

[Jim Cantore]

The bad thing is that hurricanes sometimes seem to target the drought-stricken areas, and sadly those areas look to be along the Gulf coast this year...especially in Texas. Because of this, I am worried that we will see another record breaking Gulf coast season.

I think in 1999 a lot of Midatlantic was in drought during the spring and summer then came Dennis and Floyd

and we know what happened after that

yes we were in a drought, Floyd ended it pretty much everywhere.