HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
AT 0403UTC 12 APRIL 2006
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION AT 0300 UTC
Tropical low 996 hPa within 30 nautical miles of 12.2S 90.8E, moving southwest
at around 8 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 120nm in southern quadrants,
FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours. In southern
quadrants: winds 25/35 knots with rough seas and moderate swell, extending to
northern quadrants and increasing to 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell as the system develops into a tropical cyclone.
At 1500 UTC 12 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 13.0 south 89.8 east
Central pressure 990 hPa
Winds to 40 knots
At 0300 UTC 13 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 13.6 south 88.6 east
Central pressure 986 hPa
Winds to 45 knots
The next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 12 April 2006.
WEATHER PERTH
SW Indian Ocean: Moderate TS Elia
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
SW Indian Ocean: Moderate TS Elia
Last edited by P.K. on Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:35 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Weatherfreak000
-
Weatherfreak000
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
The next advisory will be in French and will very likely have an upgrade.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
AT 1352UTC 12 APRIL 2006
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Tropical low 992 hPa within 30 nautical miles of 12.8S 90.5E, moving west
southwest at 5 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 120nm in southern quadrants,
FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours. In southern
quadrants: winds 25/35 knots with rough seas and moderate swell, extending to
northern quadrants and increasing to 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell as the system develops into a tropical cyclone.
At 0000 UTC 13 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.2 south 89.2 east
Central pressure 988 hPa
Winds to 40 knots
At 1200 UTC 13 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 13.5 south 87.9 east
Central pressure 982 hPa
Winds to 45 knots
The next warning will be issued by La Reunion RMSC.
WEATHER PERTH
-----------------------------------------------
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (SOUTH) ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES MAURITIUS ON 12TH APRIL 2006 AT 1200UTC
WIND SPEED IN KNOTS .
PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA WAS LOCATED ST 12/1200UTC WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S 90.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST).
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 06KT.
WINDS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25-30KT UNDER
CONVECTION AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
T.O.O. 12/1230UTC
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 12TH APRIL 2006 - 1200UTC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA NEAR 12.7S 90.5E.
TROUGH AXIS ALONG ALONG 11S 85E, 09S 90E INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 12.7S 90.5E CONTINUES ALONG 11S 97E AND 09S 103E.
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10S 51E, 08S 60E, INTO WAVE NEAR 08S 70E,
CONTINUES NEAR 07S 75E.
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 30S 63E, 34S 80E AND 40S 88E.
HIGH 1030 HPA NEAR 42S 50E.
HIGH 1024 HPA NEAR 37S 98E.
PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
8/1 : EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH, NORTH-EASTERLY TO
NORTHERLY
10-15 IN SOUTH.SEA MODERATE.
8/2 : EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 15-20.SEA MODERATE.
8/3 : EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH, SOUTH-EASTERLY 05-10 IN NORTH.SEA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN NORTH.
NORTH-EAST 8/4 : AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART ONE.
REMAINDER 8/4 : EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH,
EASTERLY 15 IN NORTH, LOCALLY GUSTY.SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
8/5 : VARIABLE 05-10 IN SOUTH, WESTERLY 10 IN NORTH.SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS.
EXTREME SOUTH-EAST 8/6 : AS IN TTT WARNING IN PART ONE.
REMAINDER 8/6 : WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH, VARIABLE 10 IN SOUTH.SEA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
8/7 : VARIABLE 10.SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH IN ISOLATED
THUNDERY SHOWERS.
T.O.O. 12/1300UTC.=
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
AT 1352UTC 12 APRIL 2006
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Tropical low 992 hPa within 30 nautical miles of 12.8S 90.5E, moving west
southwest at 5 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 120nm in southern quadrants,
FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours. In southern
quadrants: winds 25/35 knots with rough seas and moderate swell, extending to
northern quadrants and increasing to 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell as the system develops into a tropical cyclone.
At 0000 UTC 13 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.2 south 89.2 east
Central pressure 988 hPa
Winds to 40 knots
At 1200 UTC 13 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 13.5 south 87.9 east
Central pressure 982 hPa
Winds to 45 knots
The next warning will be issued by La Reunion RMSC.
WEATHER PERTH
-----------------------------------------------
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (SOUTH) ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES MAURITIUS ON 12TH APRIL 2006 AT 1200UTC
WIND SPEED IN KNOTS .
PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA WAS LOCATED ST 12/1200UTC WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S 90.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST).
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 06KT.
WINDS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25-30KT UNDER
CONVECTION AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
T.O.O. 12/1230UTC
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 12TH APRIL 2006 - 1200UTC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA NEAR 12.7S 90.5E.
TROUGH AXIS ALONG ALONG 11S 85E, 09S 90E INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 12.7S 90.5E CONTINUES ALONG 11S 97E AND 09S 103E.
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10S 51E, 08S 60E, INTO WAVE NEAR 08S 70E,
CONTINUES NEAR 07S 75E.
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 30S 63E, 34S 80E AND 40S 88E.
HIGH 1030 HPA NEAR 42S 50E.
HIGH 1024 HPA NEAR 37S 98E.
PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
8/1 : EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH, NORTH-EASTERLY TO
NORTHERLY
10-15 IN SOUTH.SEA MODERATE.
8/2 : EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 15-20.SEA MODERATE.
8/3 : EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH, SOUTH-EASTERLY 05-10 IN NORTH.SEA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN NORTH.
NORTH-EAST 8/4 : AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART ONE.
REMAINDER 8/4 : EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH,
EASTERLY 15 IN NORTH, LOCALLY GUSTY.SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
8/5 : VARIABLE 05-10 IN SOUTH, WESTERLY 10 IN NORTH.SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS.
EXTREME SOUTH-EAST 8/6 : AS IN TTT WARNING IN PART ONE.
REMAINDER 8/6 : WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH, VARIABLE 10 IN SOUTH.SEA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
8/7 : VARIABLE 10.SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH IN ISOLATED
THUNDERY SHOWERS.
T.O.O. 12/1300UTC.=
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-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 APR 2006 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 13:27:59 S Lon : 89:45:59 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 995.8mb/ 37.0kt
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.7 4.5
Eye Temp : -55.8C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 APR 2006 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 13:27:59 S Lon : 89:45:59 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 995.8mb/ 37.0kt
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.7 4.5
Eye Temp : -55.8C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 90.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 90.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.3S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.5S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.9S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY WEAK
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY
WEAK STORM DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND LACK OF A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z AND 131500Z.
ANOTHER ONE TO THE LIST!!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Looks like they decided this was still part of system number 13 they were tracking a week ago.
06/04/2006 00:00 87.50 7.50 1.5 Perturbation tropicale 1004 20 kt, 37 km/h 28 kt, 52 km/h
06/04/2006 12:00 85.00 7.40 1.5 Perturbation tropicale 1004 20 kt, 37 km/h 28 kt, 52 km/h
07/04/2006 00:00 86.00 6.80 1.5 Perturbation tropicale 1004 20 kt, 37 km/h 28 kt, 52 km/h
12/04/2006 18:00 90.00 13.10 2.5 DEPRESSION tropicale 998 30 kt, 55 km/h 42 kt, 78 km/h
BULLETIN DU 12 AVRIL A 22H30 LOCALES:
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 13-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 12 AVRIL A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 13.1 SUD / 90.0 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3730 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 11 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.8S/87.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.5S/85.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.3S/83.7E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
06/04/2006 00:00 87.50 7.50 1.5 Perturbation tropicale 1004 20 kt, 37 km/h 28 kt, 52 km/h
06/04/2006 12:00 85.00 7.40 1.5 Perturbation tropicale 1004 20 kt, 37 km/h 28 kt, 52 km/h
07/04/2006 00:00 86.00 6.80 1.5 Perturbation tropicale 1004 20 kt, 37 km/h 28 kt, 52 km/h
12/04/2006 18:00 90.00 13.10 2.5 DEPRESSION tropicale 998 30 kt, 55 km/h 42 kt, 78 km/h
BULLETIN DU 12 AVRIL A 22H30 LOCALES:
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 13-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 12 AVRIL A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 13.1 SUD / 90.0 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3730 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 11 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.8S/87.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.5S/85.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.3S/83.7E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
-
Weatherfreak000
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:any Intensity Forecasting yet?
WTIO20 FMEE 121809
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 12/04/2006 AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 90.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST
) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/13 AT 06 UTC:
13.5S / 88.9E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.
24H, VALID 2006/04/13 AT 18 UTC:
13.8S / 87.9E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
AFTER 4 DAYS OVER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA AT A WEAK INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM
NAo13 IS COMING BACK OVER OUR AREA OF RESPONSABILITY WITH A LIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 APR 2006 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 13:48:14 S Lon : 89:10:44 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2
Eye Temp : -51.7C Cloud Region Temp : -54.7C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 APR 2006 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 13:48:14 S Lon : 89:10:44 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2
Eye Temp : -51.7C Cloud Region Temp : -54.7C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
BULLETIN DU 13 AVRIL A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 13-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 13 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 13.3 SUD / 89.6 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3680 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.2S/88E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.8S/85.7E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.6S/83.2E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN REACTUALISE A 16H30]
----------------------------------------
FXXT02 EGRR 130450
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.04.2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22S ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6S 90.1E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.04.2006 13.6S 90.1E WEAK
12UTC 13.04.2006 13.7S 89.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.04.2006 13.4S 89.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.04.2006 14.0S 87.5E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.04.2006 14.6S 86.4E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.04.2006 15.8S 84.8E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.04.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 13-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 13 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 13.3 SUD / 89.6 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3680 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.2S/88E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.8S/85.7E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.6S/83.2E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN REACTUALISE A 16H30]
----------------------------------------
FXXT02 EGRR 130450
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.04.2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22S ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6S 90.1E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.04.2006 13.6S 90.1E WEAK
12UTC 13.04.2006 13.7S 89.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.04.2006 13.4S 89.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.04.2006 14.0S 87.5E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.04.2006 14.6S 86.4E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.04.2006 15.8S 84.8E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.04.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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