March North Atlantic Mean SSTAs out: Lower, still Above Avg.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Code: Select all

YEAR  MO   NATLC    ANOM
2004   9   28.65    0.76
2004  10   28.54    0.69
2004  11   28.25    0.84
2004  12   27.56    0.95
2005   1   26.84    0.99
2005   2   26.52    1.06
2005   3   26.63    1.18
2005   4   26.79    1.00
2005   5   27.41    1.18
2005   6   27.82    1.19
2005   7   28.06    1.03
2005   8   28.46    0.92
2005   9   28.75    0.86
2005  10   28.57    0.72
2005  11   27.95    0.54
2005  12   27.32    0.71
2006   1   26.38    0.54
2006   2   25.77    0.31
2006   3   25.71    0.26

No real surprise there, I guess. Like I said in a previous one, I believe these will hit a minimum around may or june, perhaps in the 0.10s, but thankfully, this is nothing like last year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, it may not all be entirely good news. We might have strong Atlantic ridging that may well steer storms towards the Carolinas and southeast Florida. The Caribbean is vulnerable, too, as well as Texas and Mexico.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

um...ok....I don't see what that has to do with what I posted, but Ok

[MiamiensisWx]

Cooler waters might be the result of stronger easterlies along a stronger Atlantic ridge. That's how it's related.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

We had a strong ridge last year and the year before. In fact, there was a large period in 2000/2001 where there were below average SSTs. (Think...were there any big landfalls in 2000 in the U.S.? How about 2001?)

[CHRISTY]

i think this strong ridge will hold on threw 2006..maybe things can change but this ridge has been pretty persistant so far...it really does not matter if we dont end up having 30 storms , because if we 15 0r 18 storms but we have alot of lanfalls then 2006 may turn worse then 2005.remember it only takes ONE.

[P.K.]

Don't know if anyone else has noticed but the anomalies for the tropical Atlantic in Feb have been reduced by 0.04C from the values originally given and displayed until this update.

[Weatherfreak000]

Don't know if anyone else has noticed but the anomalies for the tropical Atlantic in Feb have been reduced by 0.04C from the values originally given and displayed until this update.

I don't understand, what does that mean?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I've really never seen a ridge stay in one spot for this long and it really is annoying me, my lawn has never been so ungreen before.

[SouthFloridawx]

I've really never seen a ridge stay in one spot for this long and it really is annoying me, my lawn has never been so ungreen before.

Time to get out the hose.

[Scorpion]

Seeing many dry lawns here. An another note, the SSTA's WILL jump up this spring. Not to 2005 levels, but to still quite above average.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok question here... if high pressure dominates the atlantic and that means less cloudiness... does this mean that sst's will have a chance to heat up. I guess what I'm trying to say is if the sun can beat down on the ocean rather than being cloudy does that mean a greater chance of the waters warming.

not sure if anyone will understand what I'm saying.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Seeing many dry lawns here. An another note, the SSTA's WILL jump up this spring. Not to 2005 levels, but to still quite above average.

And what is your reasoning behind this? Please back up such definitive statements with supporting data.

[Scorpion]

Im rather confused about that myself. I heard someone say that high pressure would cool SST's due to increased trade winds or something, while another say that high pressure would warm SST's.

[Scorpion]

Seeing many dry lawns here. An another note, the SSTA's WILL jump up this spring. Not to 2005 levels, but to still quite above average.

And what is your reasoning behind this? Please back up such definitive statements with supporting data.

Just my personal ideas and observations and I will take that statement to the bank.

[Stratosphere747]

Dr...

Have they begun to try and make a broader assement of SSTs with regards to the depth of water?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Not in terms of this data, but you can kind of get a general estimate of that through the Heat Content and Min Press/Max Wind graphics that various people post.

[Javlin]

Ok question here... if high pressure dominates the atlantic and that means less cloudiness... does this mean that sst's will have a chance to heat up. I guess what I'm trying to say is if the sun can beat down on the ocean rather than being cloudy does that mean a greater chance of the waters warming.

not sure if anyone will understand what I'm saying.

Could that be like radiation cooling you have in the winter with less cloud cover?Thus there is nothing to trap the heat it is fully released into the atmosphere.Then one could argue the lack of clouds would increase the heat content.The good Doc might could chime in fill in the gaps.

[benny]

"We had a strong ridge last year and the year before. In fact, there was a large period in 2000/2001 where there were below average SSTs. (Think...were there any big landfalls in 2000 in the U.S.? How about 2001?)"

The above statement is not correct. In fact we had very weak ridging during the winter/spring/summer of last year at the surface... that's where it counts for SST anomalies. Now during the summer we had strong middle and upper level ridging over eastern N America.. this was in the mid-latitudes more than the subtropics though. The winter/spring trades were half to 75% of average during the runup to last hurricane season... the main reason why the SSTs were so warm on 1 Jun. Water is a very poor cooling surface.. radiational cooling is minimal (hence the strong land/sea contrasts).

Evaporation & mixing are much bigger players than solar insolation as far as SSTs go. Basically weak trades are considerably more favorable than strong high pressure which could (in theory) reduce cloudiness. In fact weak trades generally go with less cloudiness while the strong trades are associated with an active stratocumulus layer in the tropical Atlantic.

[benny]

Scorpion could also be right in terms of warmer water during the summertime. Subtropical ridges tend to have enhanced trades in the winter/spring of La Nina years. However, these ridges usually weaken during the summer and the SST anomalies tend to rebound upward. A paper in the mid 1990s supported this from HRD.