Statistical Chances of Major Hurricanes Hits for FL

[gatorcane]

Dislcaimer: This research is based on statistics only and DOES NOT mean a major hurricane cannot strike the area in the future

Based on my analysis, which confirmed some of what I knew before, these place have the lowest statistical chances of getting hit by a major hurricane as no major hurricane has hit these areas since 1900.

- The Treasure Coast and East Coast of FL from just north of W. Palm Beach up to Jacksonville (Jeanne and Frances were not major).
- The Big Bend of FL from just north of Cedar Key to just East of the FL panhandle

These places have the highest statistical chances:

- The Panhandle of FL including Ft. Walton, Panama City, and Pensacola.
- South FL from West Palm Beach south through the FL Keys
- SW FL from the SW tip of FL north to about Sarasota

These places have been hit by a major before but does not happen frequently:

- The Suncoast and Nature Coast of FL from just north of Sarasota to Cedary Key

Map showing major FL hits since 1900 (does not show Panhandle):
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp?command=SE&annot=%7C&vis=2%7C2%7C&width=0&table=%2FMaptitudeTempFiles%2Fa5ff3b03.htm&scope=-84367986%7C29253303%7C594.659134%7C494.55818&zoomrect=&panshift=&ml0=2&ml1=2

[CHRISTY]

this season maybe worse than 2006 maybe not in numbers but as far as U.S. landfalls.

[gatorcane]

Christy good research. It would be bad today but we certainly wouldn't be that caught off guard. Hurricane forecasting has gotten alot better since then obviously.

[Jim Cantore]

and if that storm hit today its estimated to cause 150 billion dollars in damage

[CHRISTY]

Christy good research. It would be bad today but we certainly wouldn't be that caught off guard. Hurricane forecasting has gotten alot better since then obviously.

yea i know but this kind of disaster is a real possiblity this season or in the near future,we have been very lucky for such a long time that as a andrew survivor i think alot of people living in south florida have never fully experienced the full brunt of major hurricane ...its a very scary situation trust me i went threw with 2 pillows on my head during andrew!a night that i will truly never forget.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Remember Christy just because a hurricane hits South Florida doesn't mean it will only effect South Florida. Remember Charley as it made landfall in Punta Gorda it caused significant damage in Central Florida too.

[gatorcane]

Remember Christy just because a hurricane hits South Florida doesn't mean it will only effect South Florida. Remember Charley as it made landfall in Punta Gorda it caused significant damage in Central Florida too.

Yes good point. The worst case would be to have a CAT 5 enter Miami/Ft.Lauderdale and travel WNW into the GOM then curve NW and N hittiing Tampa Bay as a CAT 3+. It is very possible and I hope it never happens.

[CHRISTY]

Remember Christy just because a hurricane hits South Florida doesn't mean it will only effect South Florida. Remember Charley as it made landfall in Punta Gorda it caused significant damage in Central Florida too.

yea i know my living room furniture was found blocks away from my house actually all off homestead was devestated,but yea a hurricane can affect a large area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

(Jeanne and Frances were not major)

This is incorrect. Technically Jeanne did make landfall as a *major* Catagory 3 hurricane.

Hurricane Jeanne Report: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004jeanne.shtml

P.S. that map of major strikes must be very old because it does not show Charley or Jeanne (and I don't think Ivan or Dennis either).

[Deb321]

Thank you Extremeweatherguy I was just going to say that. I experienced Jeanne coming in on top of me and I can tell you it was a cat 3 on landfall.

[jdray]

Hurricane Dora in 1964 hit NE Florida.
St Augustine had wind readings of Cat 3 right before landfall.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim05.gif
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim03.gif

winds were estimated at 125mph at St Augustine

This would make it a strong Cat 3. The station was in the eye.


Cat 3?
Cat 2?
Id go by what the NHC states.

[Scorpion]

I don't believe Jeanne deserves major hurricane status as the highest sustained winds recorded were only of Cat 1 strength.

[JtSmarts]

I don't believe Jeanne deserves major hurricane status as the highest sustained winds recorded were only of Cat 1 strength.

I think SMFR reported winds in Jeanne as high 112kts.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't believe Jeanne deserves major hurricane status as the highest sustained winds recorded were only of Cat 1 strength.

well it doesn't matter whether or not it deserves it. The NHC says it was a Cat. 3, so that is what it was. There is no two ways about it. Whether or not it's winds were actually of Cat. 3 strength is questionable though...but then again; so are many other storms winds that are also labeled as Cat. 3+ hurricanes to have hit FL.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Scorpion, if a category 5 hurricane struck a rural area in say....oh I dunno, South Texas....and there were no reporting stations in the vicinity of the eye, but one in the NW quad reported a max wind of 55 KT....would you say it should have been declared a tropical storm?

Or if a category 5 hurricane struck somewhere and the highest wind recorded was 69 KT before the instrument broke, would you say it should have been declared a category 1?

[Bocadude85]

none of the stations recorded sustained cat 3 winds in martin or st lucie counties but that doesnt mean they didnt occur somewhere in the area, and fort pierce reported a wind gust of 111kts

[Bocadude85]

Also in both 1933 and 1949 a cat3 made landfall in the hobe sound jupiter area
here are a few quotes from these storms. first the storm of 1933 "There was much propery damage on the east coast from Vero Beach to Palm Beach" "an elderly citizen from Ft Pierce recalled that the 1933 storm was the most devestating storm in the history of Ft Pierce." and from the 1949 storm "hurricane force winds were reported in St Augustine, Cape Canaveral and Melbourne, and winds of 120mph or greated were felt from Stuart to Pompano Beach."

[gatorcane]

Excellent points. I guess Jeanne was a major but just barely. Look at this interesting fact which erases all possiblities of anybody saying that the E coast of FL has seen a major north of Palm Beach....(besides Jeanne)

Also in both 1933 and 1949 a cat3 made landfall in the hobe sound jupiter area
here are a few quotes from these storms. first the storm of 1933 "There was much propery damage on the east coast from Vero Beach to Palm Beach" "an elderly citizen from Ft Pierce recalled that the 1933 storm was the most devestating storm in the history of Ft Pierce." and from the 1949 storm "hurricane force winds were reported in St Augustine, Cape Canaveral and Melbourne, and winds of 120mph or greated were felt from Stuart to Pompano Beach."

That is inaccurate Boca Dude, sorry:

Jeanne is the first major (Category 3 or higher) storm to make landfall on the east coast north of Palm Beach, Florida and south of the mouth of the Savannah River since 1899.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jeanne_(2004)

This shows that the chances are slim that if you live north of Palm Beach along the E coast of FL you are not likely to get hit by a major.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Jeanne was probably felt weaker because of land friction.

[Bocadude85]

That is inaccurate Boca Dude, sorry:

Jeanne is the first major (Category 3 or higher) storm to make landfall on the east coast north of Palm Beach, Florida and south of the mouth of the Savannah River since 1899.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jeanne_(2004)

This shows that the chances are slim that if you live north of Palm Beach along the E coast of FL you are not likely to get hit by a major.

well according to John Williams and Iver Duedall in their book Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms this did happen.