TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast=15/8/4

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cycloneye
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TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast=15/8/4

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:04 pm

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/d ... pr2006.pdf

Interesting what they say as always they do with these forecasts.

P.K this forecast deserved a new thread apart from the Colorado State University thread. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CHRISTY

#2 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:11 pm

interesting the bumped up from 40% TO 50%!
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Weatherfreak000

#3 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:48 pm

Interesting forecasting...I think the numbers will likely increase in the next update too.
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#4 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:54 pm

No problem, didn't want to start a new thread.

I feel I should post the actual numbers given they quote error bars on their values.

15.4 +/- 3.9, 8.2 +/- 2.4, 3.8 +/- 1.7.
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#5 Postby Gtmalacd » Tue Apr 04, 2006 2:07 pm

Why a new thread. I think we have enough with the other thread by Drezee..
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2006 2:12 pm

Gtmalacd wrote:Why a new thread. I think we have enough with the other thread by Drezee..


Simple,a new thread because this is a different forecast from a different forecaster.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:47 pm

Almost they have my numbers (15/9/4) as we coincide about a much less active 2006 season but anyway an active season neverless.They have a 78% chance for landfalls in the U.S.
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Scorpion

#8 Postby Scorpion » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:16 pm

I don't understand why people bother saying "alot less active" than 2005. Of course it will be. With 27 named storms, 2005 is a pure anomoly, and most of those storms were weak TS's that otherwise wouldnt have formed if not for the warm SST's. This makes the public believe "oh its not gonna be bad". Well 2004 had 15 named storms, and it was a BAD season.
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CHRISTY

#9 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:44 pm

Scorpion wrote:I don't understand why people bother saying "alot less active" than 2005. Of course it will be. With 27 named storms, 2005 is a pure anomoly, and most of those storms were weak TS's that otherwise wouldnt have formed if not for the warm SST's. This makes the public believe "oh its not gonna be bad". Well 2004 had 15 named storms, and it was a BAD season.
i wish everyone could read this!!!its gonna give people a since of not to be worried when in fact this maybe a very bad season without 27 storms IT ONLY TAKES ONE!
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#10 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Apr 05, 2006 10:31 am

Even if say we have around 15 - 18 storms this year that is still VERY active. We can have 50 storms and it will not mean a damn. What matters is HOW MANY MAKE LANDFALL. If most of these 15 - 18 storms effect land, it could turn out WORSE THAN 2005!
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