Hoping for different analog years.

[OuterBanker]

I always open Dr Grays previous abstract the day before the new abstract (Apr 4). I read it in full for the first time to determine the difference between them. I got to the analog years and decided to open all the storms associated with the analog in Tracking the Eye.



As you can see, not a particularly good omen for NC.

And yes, I realize that the analogs are for conditions not track patterns.

It will be interesting to see if the local news media discovers it and hypes it.

Maybe Dr Gray will change the analog years too.

[CHRISTY]

the entire eastcoast is prime target this season especially florida!

[Hyperstorm]

Not scientific of course, but based on that map North Carolina and Texas would be the targets...

[CHRISTY]

nice map!it will all determine on were the bermuda high is located during the season...if i had to guess i'd be worried if i lived in florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'd be concerned if I live anywhere along the eastern U.S. coast and Gulf coast!

[CHRISTY]

I'd be concerned if I live anywhere along the eastern U.S. coast and Gulf coast!

did u get my pm?

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep, CHRISTY!

[Blown Away]

Sorry to ask the dumb question, but explan again how they determine the analog years?

[OuterBanker]

Blown, here is the explanation (from april forecast)

3 Analog-Based Predictors for 2006 Hurricane Activity



Certain years in the historical record have global oceanic and atmospheric trends which are substantially similar to 2006. These years also provide useful clues as to trends in activity that the upcoming 2006 hurricane season may bring. For this early April extended range forecast, we project atmospheric and oceanic conditions for August through October 2006 and determine which of the prior years in our database have distinct trends in key environmental conditions which are similar to current February-March 2006 conditions. Table 3 lists our analog selections.



We select prior hurricane seasons since 1949 which have similar atmospheric-oceanic conditions to those currently being experienced. Analog years for 2006 were selected primarily on how similar they are to conditions that are currently observed such as warm tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and cool ENSO conditions. In addition, we look for analogs with similar conditions to what we project for August-October 2006 including warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, neutral to cool ENSO conditions and west phase QBO conditions.



There were four hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics similar to what we observe in February-March and what we project for August-September. The best analog years that we could find for the 2006 hurricane season are 1964, 1996, 1999 and 2003. We anticipate that 2006 seasonal hurricane activity will have slightly more activity than what was experienced in the average of these four years. We believe that 2006 will be a very active season in the Atlantic basin.




"

[OuterBanker]

Not really sure why they don't use years prior to 49. A guess would be accuracy of records and lack of satellites. Anyway, newest analogs are even worse for NC. All years used had direct NC strikes.

[MiamiensisWx]

I would really like to know how La Nina influences ridging/trough strengths and positions. In some recent strong La Nina years - such as 1996, 1998, and 1999 - we had a strong ridge; however, we also had a strong trough located just off Florida and the eastern U.S. coast that turned things out to sea, or - more commonly - steered storms from the east away from Florida and into North Carolina. What influences that? Any thoughts?

[CHRISTY]

well it depends....this year we have had so far a very persistent area of high pressure,can that change YES patterns can sometimes flip flop but iam thinking the trend this year is to not have a trough the jetstream has been way to the north most of the time.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Anyone know where about the main Jetstream was located last year at this time, and how that differs in relation to where it is this year?

[EDR1222]

The years listed for comparison were definately bad for North Carolina and 1964 saw Cleo and Dora strike Florida. The path that Dora took was definately an unusual one, moving westward and coming ashore near St. Augustine-Jacksonville. I believe Cleo did quite a bit of damage in the Carribean as well.

[AussieMark]

Cleo killed around 1,000 across Hispaniola

[NCHurricane]

Here's a breakdown by state of CONUS landfalls in the analog years:

Tropical Storms:
Florida - 2 (not 3, Henri was a TD when it crossed FL in '03)
North Carolina - 2 (this is not counting Arthur's near-miss in '96)
Texas - 1
Louisiana - 1
--------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricanes:
North Carolina - 5* (this is not counting Dennis' first near-miss as a Cat 2 in '99)
Florida - 3*
Texas - 2 (Erika just missed Brownsville to the south in '03)
Louisiana - 1

*Hurricane Isbell in 1964 was a double landfall, first in FL then in NC.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fishes: 19 of 53 storms

[gatorcane]

there were so many situations in the 80s and 90s especially when storms would curve N just before FL. It got to the point that you almost knew that you were going to be safe in FL from anything coming from the East (e.g. Floyd).

However, I think patterns have changed over the past few years and as 2004 and 2005 have shown, the Carolinas may be taking a break for a while and Forida, the GOM and the Gulf coast may be the target.

It seems that the past few year long wave patterns seem to be more dominating than before...winters are not as cold, ridges are more prominent. The result is that there is less of a chance for storms to get deflected by huge troughs that hugged the East Coast for so many years.

[MiamiensisWx]

What was the pattern like in 1926 and 1928 before the two destructive September Florida hurricanes? Was ridging prominent?

[Rainband]

Looks like my area of florida may get lucky once again if this pans out

[gatorcane]

Posted: Thu Apr 06, 2006 9:18 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like my area of florida may get lucky once again if this pans out

The Tampa Bay area and Pasco for that matter have a slim chance of getting hit, as you know the last time was 1921, however, it is possible....and I hope it never happens.