The Case Against Florida

[TampaFl]

With all the talk of another active season this year and for the next 10 - 20 years especially for Florida. This might have been posted here along time ago, but it is very interesting. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/


Robert

[windycity]

Whats scary is how over due south Florida is for a major. People think we have paid our dues during the past two years, when,in reality, im afraid were just getting started!!

[gatorcane]

Somebody always posts this article (including myself once). While some of it is true - I believe it is flawed and shouldn't be referenced. Somebody help me out on this, I can't remember what the flaw is?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With what we are seeing we could get a Floyd or Isabel like system moving right into Florida. I think theres a chance that the state will lost the southern/swamp part like LA losted theres.

[spinfan4eva]

If there was a such thing as betting on hurricanes, I would bet AGAINST a a Fla landfall in 2006

Ten named storms have hit Florida in the past 2 years.
2004 Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005 Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Tammy, Wilma

With so many landfalls in 2 seasons, everyone should be caught up except the area between tampa & panama city.

For example, Delray Beach was hit by Katrina AND Wilma in 2005 and are only hit once every 2.55yrs so isnt due again until at least 2008.

Miami averages a hit every 2.7 years and also got Katrina and Wilma

Up north, Jacksonville gets hit once every 3 years and got hit by Tammy in 2005.

So odds are against a fla hit in 2006 by the stats and if you look at the trend from 2003-2005 and extrapolate for 2006, Its Tx and LA's turn unfortunate for them but good for Fla unless a storm clips the southern tip on the way to the gulf.

See links below how the bermuda high seems to be moving west each summer sending the storms further west.
2003 season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
2004 season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Hurricane top 50 cities
http://www.hurricanecity.com/Rank.htm
2005 season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[wxman57]

Somebody always posts this article (including myself once). While some of it is true - I believe it is flawed and shouldn't be referenced. Somebody help me out on this, I can't remember what the flaw is?

I made that web page about 3 years ago. It's simply climatological data, so it isn't "flawed". What I was demonstrating was that the last time the PDO switched to cool phase (as it is now) was back in the mid 1940s through the mid 1970s. A cool phase PDO combined with a warm-phase Atlantic MDO resulted in considerably more landfalling major hurricanes from Florida through the Carolinas than during the cool phase Atlantic MDOs from 1900-1925 and from 1970-1994.

The implication is that during a cool phase PDO (and warm Atlantic MDO), the Bermuda high would tend to be a little stronger. This would increase the risk of landfalling tropical cyclones across the southeast U.S. (FL through Carolinas). There isn't much of a correlation with Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, though.

[gatorcane]

made that web page about 3 years ago. It's simply climatological data, so it isn't "flawed". What I was demonstrating was that the last time the PDO switched to cool phase (as it is now) was back in the mid 1940s through the mid 1970s. A cool phase PDO combined with a warm-phase Atlantic MDO resulted in considerably more landfalling major hurricanes from Florida through the Carolinas than during the cool phase Atlantic MDOs from 1900-1925 and from 1970-1994.

The implication is that during a cool phase PDO (and warm Atlantic MDO), the Bermuda high would tend to be a little stronger. This would increase the risk of landfalling tropical cyclones across the southeast U.S. (FL through Carolinas). There isn't much of a correlation with Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, though.

I really think it puts things in perspective. When I referenced though once, I was told it was not accurate. I'd have to dig up the topic on this....

[JamesFromMaine2]

If there was a such thing as betting on hurricanes, I would bet AGAINST a a Fla landfall in 2006

Ten named storms have hit Florida in the past 2 years.
2004 Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005 Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Tammy, Wilma

With so many landfalls in 2 seasons, everyone should be caught up except the area between tampa & panama city.

For example, Delray Beach was hit by Katrina AND Wilma in 2005 and are only hit once every 2.55yrs so isnt due again until at least 2008.

Miami averages a hit every 2.7 years and also got Katrina and Wilma

Up north, Jacksonville gets hit once every 3 years and got hit by Tammy in 2005.

So odds are against a fla hit in 2006 by the stats and if you look at the trend from 2003-2005 and extrapolate for 2006, Its Tx and LA's turn unfortunate for them but good for Fla unless a storm clips the southern tip on the way to the gulf.

See links below how the bermuda high seems to be moving west each summer sending the storms further west.
2003 season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
2004 season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Hurricane top 50 cities
http://www.hurricanecity.com/Rank.htm
2005 season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Yes all of that may be true on a average season but with an increase in number of storms also comes a increased chance of being hit so IMO with an over active season such as 2005 or what is being forcasted for this season that doesn't matter! Also its not like the hurricanes keep track of where they have hit and when an area is due! A hurricane will hit what ever area the setup is right for! Its fun to look at those and it can be used to see which areas might get hit but its in no way a indicator of what areas will get hit!

[gatorcane]

Alot of the 1930s -1950s hurricanes happened in October as the NHC notes in one of the discussion's from Wilma:

Source: 5am TPC Disco:
WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED
IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW. WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE MODELS
SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF
WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR
STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND
THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

[MiamiensisWx]

Dry conditions and ridging expected through the entire week with the exception of a weak front...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 011853
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
153 PM EST SAT APR 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA FREE OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK "BACK DOOR
FRONT" MAY APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH GIVING US
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 15 KTS WITH CALM SEAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS MEAN RH SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 64 83 65 84 / 5 5 5 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 82 67 83 / 5 5 5 5
MIAMI 67 84 68 85 / 5 5 5 5
NAPLES 63 83 63 82 / 5 5 5 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

47

[CHRISTY]

are we in a cold phase now?

[boca]

Were sitting ducks quack quack quack.

[MiamiensisWx]

The Carolinas are, too.

[CHRISTY]

actually i have got some word lately that florida is prime target this season!my cousin knows avila at the NHC and the word behind closedoors is florida will continue will hits!

[CHRISTY]

check out this graphic on major hurricanes!

[Downdraft]

To say an area that has been hit isn't "due" to get hit again is totally incorrect and the logic is flawed. If that was the case Jeanne should not have made landfall within shouting distance of where Frances came ashore. Every year we get this and every year it gets argued to death. More hurricanes equal more chances but the assumption that one area is more due than another is statistically and logically incorrect. The odds don't change from year to year. Same principle applies shooting dice. The more times you roll the dice the more opportunities you have to throw a 7 but the odds of two dye rolling to 7 remain the same with every throw. Your odds of throwing that 7 do increase against you because there is little to no variation to affect the throw. The major difference is the variables don't change with each dice throw the variables as to when and where a hurricane goes are far more complex and depend on factors that cannot be reliably predicted more than 72 hours in advance usually. Florida's and the Carolina's are always at increased risk due to their geography. It can be said with some certitude that a major hit on south Florida or Tampa is pretty much a sure thing given an infinite amount of time and and infinite combination of variables to affect the storm's course. It falls within the realm of high probability not mathematical certainty.

[benny]

I have to agree with downdraft... in every year the chances are the same. Hurricanes are rare events.. especially major hurricanes in one location... and to say a place is due is not useful information... tampa has been due for over 50 years and they still haven't gotten anything...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Unfortunately, nature doesn't read statistics, and while patterns are helpful in "guesstimating"... the only thing certain, is that nothig is certain.

A2K

[gatorcane]

I have to agree with downdraft... in every year the chances are the same. Hurricanes are rare events.. especially major hurricanes in one location... and to say a place is due is not useful information... tampa has been due for over 50 years and they still haven't gotten anything...

That's great you have such a positive view. The way I see it last year shattered so many records, I really think we are seeing a major climatalogical shift, so I wouldn't be surprised if majors are quite common. Get ready for it.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

So odds are against a fla hit in 2006 by the stats and if you look at the trend from 2003-2005 and extrapolate for 2006, Its Tx and LA's turn unfortunate for them but good for Fla unless a storm clips the southern tip on the way to the gulf.

Hurricanes don't listen to statistics my friend....