2006 Season=Very Active or not,"It only takes one"

[cycloneye]

Active,On average or Below the average anyway it turns out to be this upcomming 2006 season we must be prepared for any threats that may arise during the season in your area.All the discussion about if La Nina will prevail or not or if Neutral conditions will dominate again or not,about if the bermuda High will establlish itself in what position and strengh,about the sst's and ssta's in the tropical atlantic or the MDR area east of the Lesser Antilles,how the Surface pressures will be,how the QBO winds will blow and how the azores high will be in terms of position and strengh and if an east coast trough develops would mean nothing for an area that may be strucked by a cane no matter how the factors above are.Remember that below average seasons haved brought many destructive canes to make landfall and to mention only a couple were the powerful Hurricane (1928) and Andrew (1992) (Look at grafics below) two good examples that show that not active seasons can cause harm to places in the basin.In other words no matter how the season turns out eventually if it is a slow one or an active one you must be prepared because only one hurricane that makes landfall in your area will change your life for many weeks ahead.

[wxmann_91]

Oh so true cycloneye.

1 named storm that hits land is worse than 500 named storms that don't.

[SootyTern]

I didn't know that 1928 storm was a Cat 5 over Puerto Rico. Ouch!

[cycloneye]

I didn't know that 1928 storm was a Cat 5 over Puerto Rico. Ouch!

Exactly that is why I post it as an example of not active season.

San Felipe as it was called caused 312 deaths and catastrofic damage here.

[SootyTern]

Duhh..I've heard of San Felipe. Was this the same one that continued on to drown thousands of people on the edge of Lake Ochechobee? Sorry for my ignorance...

[cycloneye]

Duhh..I've heard of San Felipe. Was this the same one that continued on to drown thousands of people on the edge of Lake Ochechobee? Sorry for my ignorance...

Yes that was the one.

[SootyTern]

For some reason never connected them as the same storm. Learn something new every day!


Wait..was the Andrew that hit Louisians in 1992 the same one that hit Florida? (j/k)

[txwatcher91]

Fewer hurricanes and tropical storms mean that the water will be warmer also. That could mean less but more intense hurricanes.

[Andrew92]

For some reason never connected them as the same storm. Learn something new every day!


Wait..was the Andrew that hit Louisians in 1992 the same one that hit Florida? (j/k)

Yes it was the same Andrew that hit Florida.

Notice also how it's path in the GOM is fairly similar to Katrina's path. If Andrew had veered not far to the right in the GOM, Andrew likely would still be costliest hurricane in U.S. history, had it also inundated New Orleans. Costliest even with Katrina......

Just some food for thought regarding Andrew.

-Andrew92

[wxmann_91]

For some reason never connected them as the same storm. Learn something new every day!


Wait..was the Andrew that hit Louisians in 1992 the same one that hit Florida? (j/k)

Yes it was the same Andrew that hit Florida.

Notice also how it's path in the GOM is fairly similar to Katrina's path. If Andrew had veered not far to the right in the GOM, Andrew likely would still be costliest hurricane in U.S. history, had it also inundated New Orleans. Costliest even with Katrina......

Just some food for thought regarding Andrew.

-Andrew92

Andrew, had it veered just 10 miles to the north, would've demolished Miami. And 10 miles is a big distance because further west that would've had significant implications as well, more to the east. Andrew came close to destroying both New Orleans and Miami.

The most likely worst case scenario that could happen would be a track like the 1947 Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane. A track that devastates both New Orleans and Miami.

[Ixolib]

...one hurricane that makes landfall in your area will change your life for many weeks ahead.

...or months - perhaps even years.

Great post, Luis. This is surely good information and a great reminder of what can (or will) happen down the road.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

True. Take 1954 for example. Roughly average, but three hurricanes hit the East Coast which is well above average. Over all numbers are less important, than where the storms go and how strong they are when they get there:

[cycloneye]

...or months - perhaps even years.

Ixolib,I said it in general terms but it includes what you said and I know what you are going thru now after 6 months.It may take years to have a normal gulf coast again in the Louisiana,Mississippi area.

[f5]

imagine how much Andrew would of cost if he would of hit downtown Miami and N.O