Neg. NAO/East Coast Winter Trough... Strong Recurving '06?

[MiamiensisWx]

I've noticed that many models are forecasting a fairly strong negative NAO to continue to develop this month and potentially into a few more months, with troughing along the northeastern and eastern U.S. coast to develop. Could this signify a general pattern trend towards troughing in 2006 that results in a strong recurving Cape Verde season? 1996 had a negative NAO develop in winter around this time and had a strong recurving season develop. What effect does a negative NAO and troughing in winter this time of year have on the hurricane season? Any thoughts?

[wxmann_91]

Yes a negative NAO is developing right now. But oh where did you get the news that it would last through summer? NAO phases typically only lasts a few weeks at best. Even in 1996, though a -NAO was firmly entrenched in early January, by the end of the month it turned postitive.

[MiamiensisWx]

I never said it would last through summer. What effect does it have on the pattern setup for hurricane season, though?

[Weatherfreak000]

A imagine a minimal effect at best this far out, if not non-existent.

[wxmann_91]

I never said it would last through summer. What effect does it have on the pattern setup for hurricane season, though?

It won't last many months, that's what I meant to say.

A -NAO would mean higher than normal heights across the North Atlantic, favoring development of tropical cyclones, but a East Coast trough and thus a reduced risk in the U.S. However, the islands of Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles will be at a higher risk, as well as Bermuda.

Will there be a -NAO that could dominate throughout Hurricane Season? Don't know, too early to tell. The ensembles point out the NAO is expected to go postitive by mid-March, but Mr. Sutherland in the Winter forum has pointed out that it could turn negative again, which is certainly possible. If it does the spring of 2006 could be somewhat like the winter of 1996 when the NAO constantly switched from negative to positive. So in summary, we'll see.

[Derek Ortt]

sure you dont mean 1995? 1996 had storms recurving right into Cape Fear

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm referring to 1996, Ortt.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm referring to 1996, Ortt.

Your a year off...Would have had to be in 1994...With the Recurve Season of 1995

[Derek Ortt]

well... 1996 was not a recurving year. It was a carolinas year

[MiamiensisWx]

That's what I meant, Ortt... storms recurved in 1996 either to hit the Carolinas or turn out to sea.