La Nina,Neutral or El Nino by next summer?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 6:15 pm

I say Neutral conditions.What do all say about this? Come and vote in this poll as I want to see many,many votes.

Dont forget that the most important poll,the official storm2k forecast numbers poll starting on March 15.

MiamiensisWx · #2 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 6:18 pm

I say a La Nina, but a very weak one. It may well be not very different from neutral conditions, and southeast Florida will likely be under high, increasing risk...

#3 Postby **windycity** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 6:21 pm

i say neutral ,with fl. under the gun.

#4 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 6:49 pm

Given all the models say netural in 5 months I'd go with that. That said the ECMWF didn't forecast the current conditions very well.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

Weatherfreak000 · #5 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 6:54 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:I say a La Nina, but a very weak one. It may well be not very different from neutral conditions, and southeast Florida will likely be under high, increasing risk...

Florida is always under "increased risk" it's like throwing darts at a dart board with a bullseye that takes up half the board. Not that I think your wrong but IMO El Nino, Neutral or La Nina Florida just takes it's bruises and that's all there seems to be to it.

And with that I say Weak La Nina probably.

#6 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 7:04 pm

I say weakening La Nina, but not neutral until late Summer/Early Fall.

Scorpion · #7 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 7:37 pm

Weak nina to neutral

WindRunner · #8 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 7:41 pm

After strengthening through the spring, this La Nina should be back to about the point it is at currently by early August, with continued moderation further into the season.

Jim Cantore · #9 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 7:46 pm

Weak La Nina or neutral

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 7:51 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Weak La Nina or neutral

Which one is it my friend? Only one vote to one option only.

Unless you didn't vote in the poll.

weatherwindow · #11 Postby **weatherwindow** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 8:45 pm

as i proposed last summer, the neutral conditions, present in 2005, would slowly evolve into a significant cool episode to pesist thru the peak of the 2006 season. the ultimate intensity of this episode is a question mark. during the active portion of the ATC, gray proposed that the there is a suble change in the frequency and duration of el ninos. they tend to become fewer and shorter. whereas la ninas increase in frequency and duration. the last truly significant la nina occurred in 98/99. i felt that a reversal was due and that neutral conditions would not persisit into a third year after the 2002 warm episode. most of the ocean/atmos coupled signals during the last quarter of 05 were leaning toward the transition......rich

StormScanWx · #12 Postby **StormScanWx** » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:43 pm

La Nina

#13 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:39 pm

Neutral

x-y-no · #14 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:15 pm

Neutral.

#15 Postby **JtSmarts** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:18 pm

La Nina

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:25 pm

Anymore votes for this poll?

cheezyWXguy · #17 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:40 pm

ya...I think itll be anywhere from a neutral to a moderate la nina

Ixolib · #18 Postby **Ixolib** » Fri Mar 03, 2006 10:45 pm

Click the link for a look at the WMO's March 3rd perspective on La Nina... Looks like they're going for neutral come June...

http://www.wmo.ch/news/news.html

TexasStooge · #19 Postby **TexasStooge** » Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:04 pm

I'm gonna be voting neutral on this one, considering how screwed up the weather is in Texas.

ROCK · #20 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:09 pm

beyond screwed up TS....