2002 Verification Complete

[MWatkins]

I'll have the verification numbers out on my webpage for those interested in another couple of days...but I have finalized 2002 stats. A couple of notes:

1. For the first time I have verified "best-track" data instead of fix-to-fix like previous years. This has the effect of dropping any TD's that did not develop.

2. Remember that these forecasts come out at least 1 hour BEFORE the NHC product is released. The models are fast enough that as of Bill I'm getting forecasts out by 9:30 AM, 3:30 PM and 9:30PM respectively. So this year I'll be 1.5 hours ahead of the official product.

3. Only forecasts made at the same synoptic time are compared using a great-circle calculation for distances between points on a sphere.

OK...here are the results vs NHC and vs 10 Year Climatology:

12 Hours (23 Cases) Avg Errors TUC (46), NHC(38), Climo(43)
24 Hours (22 Cases) Avg Errors TUC (81), NHC(80), Climo (81)
36 Hours (22 Cases) Avg Errors TUC (112), NHC(121) Climo (115)
48 Hours (19 Cases) Avg Errors TUC (141), NHC(139) Climo (148)
36 Hours (22 Cases) Avg Errors TUC (165), NHC(151) Climo (220)

The overall error percent is -2.2% vs the NHC...the best so far...it was actually positive until I droped the TD's from the set. Also...I was able to beat the 10 year average for all but the 12 hour period...and the late period stats look especially promising.

The only reason I'm putting this up is to give an objective scorecard of my forecasts...and to provide information for those interested. Also...if my results were getting worse...or even staying the same rather than getting better I'd probably stop writing forecasts. But...since they're getting better...I'll keep going.

Also...I'm going back to 2001 and 2000 to do best track re-analysis there too.

OK...that's it.

Please feel free to ask if you have any questions or would like clairification on anything...either here in this forum or at:

tropicalupdate@yahoo.com

Thanks again for reading if you made it this far.

MW

[Colin]

Very interesting stuff! Thanks for sharing it with us, MW!

[vbhoutex]

Can't beat a track record like that!!! Don't you ever think about not writing forecasts!!!! IMO you are one of the best there is at tropical forecasting. Keep on keeping on!!!