SE Indian Ocean: TC Clare

[P.K.]

There was a low previous to this but it never had more than low in the potential development.

DW10800

UPDATED
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:09pm WST on Thursday the 5th of January 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

A weak tropical low lies off Arnhem Land [Northern Territory]. This low is
expected to move westwards in the next few days through the Timor Sea then
develop north of Western Australia. There is a moderate chance that the low will
develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday and by that stage it is expected to be
nearing 120E well north of the coast.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Friday : low
Saturday : low
Sunday : moderate

There are no other lows evident in the region.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[StormScanWx]

There was a low previous to this but it never had more than low in the potential development.

DW10800

UPDATED
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:09pm WST on Thursday the 5th of January 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

A weak tropical low lies off Arnhem Land [Northern Territory]. This low is
expected to move westwards in the next few days through the Timor Sea then
develop north of Western Australia. There is a moderate chance that the low will
develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday and by that stage it is expected to be
nearing 120E well north of the coast.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Friday : low
Saturday : low
Sunday : moderate

There are no other lows evident in the region.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

Sorry this is off this subject somewhat, but I REALLY like how they do that outlook, I wish NHC would consider the LOW, MODERATE, HIGH, and VERY HIGH style forecasts.

[P.K.]

High development potential in three days time.

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:17pm WST on Friday the 6th of January 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

A weak tropical low, 1005hPa, is in the Timor Sea near the north coast of
Bathurst Island [Northern Territory]. The low is expected to move westwards
through the Timor Sea then develop north of Western Australia.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : low
Sunday : moderate
Monday : high

There are no other lows evident in the region.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[Coredesat]

I believe this would be INVEST 97S:

[HurricaneBill]

I was just about to comment about how quiet the SPAC and SIO seem to be.

Think it'll be a quiet year?

[Coredesat]

06/2033 UTC 12.1S 126.2E T1.5/1.5 97S

[Milky]

06/2033 UTC 12.1S 126.2E T1.5/1.5 97S

Where would i find T numbers and what wind speeds they correspond to on the net?

[Coredesat]

Here ya go:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Coredesat]

07/0233 UTC 13.0S 123.6E T1.5/1.5 97S

[P.K.]

Track Map

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0700UTC 7 JANUARY 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC tropical low located within 25 nautical miles of
Latitude 13.3 south
Longitude 124.3 east
Recent movement west southwest at 13 knots.
Maximum winds 30 knots.
Central pressure 1002 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1800UTC 07 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.3 south 122.5 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 08 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 15.9 south 120.8 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 07 January 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

-------------------------------

IDW24100
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 5:50 pm WST on Saturday, 7 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A WARNING is now current for a developing tropical low for the coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga.

A cyclone WATCH extends from Bidyadanga south to Mardie.

At 5:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
335 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and
500 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday and produce gales in
coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga as it moves towards the
southwest.

Details of the tropical low at 5:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 13.7 South Longitude 123.6 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 996 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 90 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms.
Severity category : Not applicable.

The next warning will be issued at 9:00 pm WST.

[P.K.]

Cat 1.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1305UTC 7 JANUARY 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC tropical cyclone CLARE located within 25 nautical miles of
Latitude 14.2 south
Longitude 123.0 east
Recent movement: west southwest at 13 knots.
Maximum winds: 40 knots.
Central pressure: 994 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles of the centre extending to within 90 nautical miles of
the centre by 08/0000UTC.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 40 knots near centre increasing to 50 knots by 08/1200UTC.
Within 45 nautical miles of centre by 08/1200UTC winds 45/50 knots with very
rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 45 nautical miles of centre extending to within 90nm of centre after
08/0000UTC winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate
swell.
At 0000UTC 08 January: 15.3 south 121.1 east
990 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 08 January: 16.6 south 119.9 east
985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 1800 UTC 07 January 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[mike815]

it does seem to be pretty quiet so far over there but now we got something at least.

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

Wow... it is looking very well-organized now! It has good, deep convection and good outflow.

[HURAKAN]

07/1433 UTC 14.3S 122.3E T2.0/2.0 97S -- South Indian Ocean


IT LOOKS STRONGER THAN WHAT DVORAK INDICATES!

[Coredesat]

Looks really good with some really deep convection. And is that an eye feature I see trying to form (can't really see it on THIS image, though)?

[Coredesat]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S 123.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE LLCC, OVER THE KIMBERLEY REGION OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA,
IS PROVIDING GOOD WESTWARD DIVERGENCE BUT IS CURRENTLY LIMITING POLE-
WARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking good!

[Astro_man92]

Looks really good with some really deep convection. And is that an eye feature I see trying to form (can't really see it on THIS image, though)?

are they supposed to be that big relative to Australia?

[P.K.]

Pressure down another 2hPa.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Saturday, 7 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Bidyadanga southwest to Mardie.

At 11:00 pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
450 kilometres west of Kalumburu and
390 kilometres north of Broome and
moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the coastline for the next
24 to 36 hours. However, gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop
later on Sunday on the coastline between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga, including
Broome, as the system intensifies.

Details of cyclone Clare at 11:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 14.5 South Longitude 122.5 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 992 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1.

The next warning will be issued at 3:00 am WST.