Was Hurricane Emily a Category 5?

[StormScanWx]

Do you think the NHC report will upgrade Emily to a Category 5? I do.

[HURAKAN]

Emily to cat. 5 and Cindy to cat. 1.

[Scorpion]

No, Emily was most likely not a Cat 5.

[Weatherfreak14]

No, Not at any time was emily a CAT 5 but it was a strong CAT 4.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nhc said it was for a short time around 03z. In the recon supported cat5...Emily was a cat5!

[JamesFromMaine2]

when recon left it was a 155mph Cat4 after recon left it continued to get better organized but by the time recon got back it had started its ERC and recon found 155mph or less winds and so in the next advisory they said it was more then likely a cat 5 for a short time after recon left!

[Scorpion]

929 mb does not make a Cat 5 IMO regardless of the extremely borderline Cat 5 winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pressure doe's not really matter that much. Also Emily was much smaller then the other cat5s.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF
THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE
CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 130 KT. WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES
THE YUCATAN. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK...EMILY COULD SPEND
ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE AMPLE TIME IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF
WATERS FOR EMILY TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE ITS FINAL
LANDFALL.

[wxmann_91]

Emily could've (and probably was) a Cat 5 for a few hours. But since it was for only a few hours, they probably won't upgrade it.

[Derek Ortt]

the storm was undergoing some convective disorganization at that time, so the 90% reduction likely did not apply

[onetimeposter2]

Here's some likely already viewed evidence.


[img]ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2005/al05.2005/0717/1330/col02deg.png[/img]

However, as the previous earliest Atlantic basin category five, hurricane Allen, maintained category five intensity for extended periods of time, and as Allen attained category 5 intensity three times during its life, it seems unlikely that what was, at best, a brief event would essentially
represent the earliest time, since about 1851, at which an Atlantic basin tropical cyclone has attained category five intensity. However, in Emily's defense, the event itself may not be epochal; we all know that reliable records only extend a bit over 150 years. And, trivially, the brevity of an event does not prevent its occurence.

In short, I have no idea.

[HURAKAN]

I know there is evidence to support both sides of the controversy, but, in 2002, Hurricane Elida in the EPAC was thought to attain Cat. 5 intensity for a brief period of time between advisories. Elida died out as a cat. 4 as its top intensity but later in the best track the cyclone was upgraded to cat. 5.

[Derek Ortt]

technically, the H-Wind supports the extreme upper reaches of cat 4. 136KT=155.6 m.p.h., .4 m.p.h. below the cat 5 threshhold

[Scorpion]

I don't trust the H Wind Analysis. I saw some of them for Wilma that were just absurd. One of them gave Wilma 112 kt winds even thought it had an 899 mb pressure.

[Derek Ortt]

how one can make a statement like that about H-Wind when one does not know what goes into H-Wind troubles me somewhat

remember, there is not a direct relation between pressure and wind speed

[Scorpion]

how one can make a statement like that about H-Wind when one does not know what goes into H-Wind troubles me somewhat

remember, there is not a direct relation between pressure and wind speed

So a hurricane with 899 mb(4th or 5th most powerful pressure recorded) can be a Cat 3?

[MGC]

Emily may have been a Cat-5. Hurricane hunters drop might have missed the strongest winds......MGC

[Brent]

Yes... briefly. I'm not sure it'll be called one in the post-analysis though.

[Jim Cantore]

I beleive they will find she was one for at least 6 hours