Impressive System over E-Atlantic

#1 Postby **TheEuropean** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 8:27 am

It's looking really impressive:

This is an upper low with only limited chances to develop at the surface over water with temperatures around 70 F - but we have 2005 (only two days left) and who knows... ;-)

WindRunner · #2 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 9:13 am

I thought I saw some sort of circulation in that convection yesterday! I hope it can do something in the next two days, but this will probably end up being Alberto if it develops.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 9:18 am

It is looking pretty good. In if that convection can form close to that center then we may have something. Come on will it be Zeta or Alberto?

#4 Postby **EDR1222** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 10:41 am

It would be a heck of a way to finish off the year!

#5 Postby **angelwing** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 11:43 am

At this point, nothing will surprise me!

JamesFromMaine2 · #6 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 12:00 pm

this is the area I was talking about a few days ago. looking better now though.

JamesFromMaine2 · #7 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 12:04 pm

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM N AMERICA WITH GALES
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N AS IT EMERGES TODAY
OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE TWO HIGHS CONTROL A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH A 1021 CENTER CLOSE TO BERMUDA AND A 1032 CENTER OVER THE
AZORES. STRONG TRADES ARE N OF 20N E OF 40W DUE TO THE HIGH.
IN BETWEEN... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N48W TO
26N53W DISSIPATING TO 22N55W. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ALSO DOMINATES THE W ATLC WITH STRONG DRYING
ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE NE ATLC PLUS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF
40W. THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IS A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR
19N35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION FROM 15N39W TO 21N35W.
A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS FROM 10N-24N E OF
32W IN ADDITION TO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 27W-37W DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WNW ... SPREADING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE PATH. TRADES ARE MUCH LIGHTER S OF
THE UPPER LOW BUT ARE FAIRLY BRISK ELSEWHERE S OF 20N E OF 30W
AND N OF 20N E OF 40W.

Jim Cantore · #8 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 12:28 pm

I thought I heard there was 65 knot sheer over this thing

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #9 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 12:45 pm

More like 20 to 25 knot shear with 25c SST's under it. It worth watching in seems to have some central convection.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 12:49 pm

Also we need to watch if it can keep up convection over the center. The longer the better!

Jim Cantore · #11 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 1:00 pm

it has spin to it

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 1:18 pm

If it has spin to it I will be watching it... :wink:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #13 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 2:49 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 29 2005
A MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 21N33W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION FROM 14N39W TO 20N36W. QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH IS CLOSE TO CLOSING OFF NEAR 16N38W AND THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE FEATURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DRIFTING IT TO THE NORTHWEST.

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 2:54 pm

SUBTROPICAL STORM 1, 1978

It will surely be very interesting to see something like what it's shown above! It would be an amazing start to the 2006 hurricane season!

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #15 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:00 pm

The real question is...

...if it develops, will it form before 7pm EST on the 31st and be called Zeta or afterwards and be called Alberto?

#16 Postby **george_r_1961** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:18 pm

I do not see this developing as a purely tropical system but i wouldnt be surprised to see a hybrid or subtropical system. The window of oppurtunity is closing though.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #17 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 7:02 pm

Convection starting to become organized. It looking like it has a shot!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 7:06 pm

A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 38W FROM 16N-22N. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

The above from the 7 PM EST Discussion.

Jim Hughes · #19 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 7:12 pm

The chances of us seeing any area worth watching out in the Atlantic is of no coincidence. Not even at this time of the year. Certain variables have been favorable and I thought these conditions would be favorable some three weeks ago....My comments at the end.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=79220

Of course a number of reasons have kept me from recently bringing this up again. It's too bad that things have turned out the way they have. Everyone loses out here not just me.

Jim

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #20 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 7:37 pm

Impressive System over E-Atlantic

Impressive System over E-Atlantic

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