Downgrading/Reclass--Insult to New Orleans!!!!

[gk1]

As a resident of SE LA. it seems insulting to say that New Orleans recieved Cat. 1 Winds and the Downgrading to Cat. 3 is SHOCKING!!!! Katrina made Camille's storm surge look like nothing. It went further inland and was much higher. Maybe Camille was a Cat. 2?!?!?!?

[JonathanBelles]

yes i agree with most of that except that storm surge is not based on category

[x-y-no]

I don't understand how reasoning from the best available data winds up being an "insult."

[Brent]

It was pretty much known all along that New Orleans only experienced a Cat 1, regardless of the landfall intensity.

[jeff]

There is nothing surprising about the conclusions and it should not be taken as an insult. In the end, the data speaks for itself. As mentioned prior, storm surge is not based on SS category intensity. Katrina, Rita, Charley, and Ivan have taught us much in the last 2 years about hurricane intensity vs. damage with respect to storm surge and wind. Two cat 3 hurricanes strikes different coastal locations can have two entierly different results. So many things are factored into hurricane damage potential, that blanket statements such as "it was a cat 2" or "cat 4" do not grasp the concept of what a hurricane can do and how different each storm can be.

[LaPlaceFF]

It was the flooding that did the most damage. Remember the roof was damaged on the Superdome and some buildings were damaged by winds. The area that was mostly damaged by winds was St Bernard, Plaquemines Parishes, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast near where the eye passed.

[MiamiensisWx]

To be honest, some people just won't accept the fact of the damage Category One or Category Two winds can do. Just ask those who went through Wilma in Florida (like myself!) and professionals on Wilma's winds in Florida.

Really, it dosn't matter whether they downgrade a storm or not. It does not make it seem less destructive, nor is it even close to an attempt to downplay a storm. I know that the way things have gone makes it tempting to blame the National Hurricane Center, but you need to bite your lip, listen up to professionals and others, and calmly discuss the matter, instead of bursting at the seams just to blame someone.

[Audrey2Katrina]

It was pretty much known all along that New Orleans only experienced a Cat 1, regardless of the landfall intensity.

Oh Really?

Well let's take the water and surge out of the picture for long enough to look at "winds" and the NHC's own definitions of Category status and wind damage:

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. (Okay so there was "no real damage" to the Superdome... yeah right!)

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. (Okay, so tell that to residents around Folsom La. NORTH of the Lake and well west of the eye --and north of New Orleans-- where 80% of the trees were down, or of Metairie, WEST of New Orleans, with nearly half of the trees completely uprooted, yanking up giant slabs of concrete and roading with them...and these are LARGE trees which I lived amongst and have the pictures to show--unbelievable damage to the trees around here.)

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. *

*source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Actually those who went through the WINDS of this storm knew all along that those were much stronger than any category one status.

To be honest, some people just won't accept the fact of the damage Category One or Category Two winds can do. Just ask those who went through Wilma in Florida (like myself!) and professionals on Wilma's winds in Florida.

To be just as honest some people just won't accept that the so-called "experts" for all their techno-babble just might be wrong. Or do we even remember that these same "experts" took TEN YEARS to realize they blew it on Hurricane Andrew (pun intended).

I also don't need to be reminded of the need to "experience" a hurricane firsthand. I've "experienced" hurricanes since Audrey of 1957, to Katrina this year, and been smack in the middle of Andrew's cat 3 landfall near Morgan City La., and I can say, speaking FROM that experience that these winds were at the very least every bit as strong in Metairie, La. as Andrew's were in Morgan City--and the wind damage around here supports that. Virtually EVERY major billboard was bent over, the doubles, twisted in half... practically every business' signs blown completely out... yeah, that was all done by cat. 1 hurricane... and I got a deed to a bridge in New York City the NHC might be interested in purchasing.

And before we are regalled with further comments about playing a "blame game"... I have no interest in blaming anyone for anything beyond the fact that I have been through it, live in it, and seen it. If anyone thinks this is about "my storm was bigger than yours," then it is they who have the problem cuz I'd be more than happy to have let them have this one except that I'd wish this monster on no one. Perhaps if we weren't so smack in the middle of utter devastation, and perhaps if people could rise above the water damage (pun intended) and look to what was NOT water but wind damage, and show a little bit of empathy with those who DID experience this, we might all be more predisposed to calmer and less emotional dialogue. But it IS difficult when one is incessantly bombarded by what, at least appears to them as both condescending and "know it all" posts from those who did NOT experience this thing and seem unwilling to acknowledge the proven fallibility of human devices.

Apologies to any offended, as none was intended; but they say that catharsis is good for the soul. And I feel much better.

A2K

[Jam151]

I have been in New Orleans East and 90% of the damage was from the water. I suspected NOE never got anything more than Cat 1-2 before the report came out but it supports what I had suspected. If anything, Metarie should have recieved less winds than New Orleans East being that NOE was nearly in the eyewall. I wouldn't consider major billboard damage to be that much of a surprise in a Cat 1 either.

And as a New Orleans resident I am not insulted. I'm glad they're getting the facts right so that we can know what to prepare for when one decideds to hit us head on.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I wouldn't consider major billboard damage to be that much of a surprise in a Cat 1 either.

Gee, and I thought the reference to billboards was a rather insignificant mention among a litany of other things I cited???

I don't think anyone will deny that the worst damage out in NOE was from the water--kind'a obvious.
Did you actually ride out the storm in NOE? I know people who were in those winds, and they were considerably more than cat 1.

Indeed the "truth" is what this is all about.

Katrina, like Andrew will be revisited--and then maybe we'll get that much sought after "truth."

A2K

[Brent]

I have found that the public estimating wind speeds is always wrong(too high)... I do it myself as well, so don't take it as a slam. People think a 50 mph wind is really 70 mph in a thunderstorm, it happens all the time. Just don't take what someone says(unless they actually had a reliable anemometer) as accurate.

[Jam151]

I wouldn't consider major billboard damage to be that much of a surprise in a Cat 1 either.

Gee, and I thought the reference to billboards was a rather insignificant mention among a litany of other things I cited???

I don't think anyone will deny that the worst damage out in NOE was from the water--kind'a obvious.
Did you actually ride out the storm in NOE? I know people who were in those winds, and they were considerably more than cat 1.

Indeed the "truth" is what this is all about.

Katrina, like Andrew will be revisited--and then maybe we'll get that much sought after "truth."

A2K

The general public knows nothing about estimating windspeeds. Even storm chasers caught up in the adrenaline rush moment often exagerrate winds. Besides, if the winds were REALLY that much stronger there would have been more noticeable WIND damage. Several houses ended up with having ZERO wind damage and the West Bank is carrying on almost as if nothing had ever happened. Every anemometer in southeast Louisiana confirms what many had suspected when Katrina began to weaken on infrared imagery. Katrina began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle while interacting with a trough to the west at the same time. On top of that, we were in the west quadrant, and Metairie wasn't even close to the eyewall. Now the storm surge argument is poor and the board has gone over than 100 times.

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh Really?

Well let's take the water and surge out of the picture for long enough to look at "winds" and the NHC's own definitions of Category status and wind damage:

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. (Okay so there was "no real damage" to the Superdome... yeah right!)

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. (Okay, so tell that to residents around Folsom La. NORTH of the Lake and well west of the eye --and north of New Orleans-- where 80% of the trees were down, or of Metairie, WEST of New Orleans, with nearly half of the trees completely uprooted, yanking up giant slabs of concrete and roading with them...and these are LARGE trees which I lived amongst and have the pictures to show--unbelievable damage to the trees around here.)

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. *

*source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Actually those who went through the WINDS of this storm knew all along that those were much stronger than any category one status.

Has it ever occurred to you that the Saffir-Simpson Scale just might need revising? Amazing that this claiming that the Saffir-Simpson Scale is as accurate as you think it is comes from someone who is saying that experts are hardly even close to accurate and are just babbling away, never even admitting that we don't know much. You sound like you know everything. What's up with that, hmmm?

Truthfully, we are always learning new things all the time, and I admit that nobody - or anything - is 100% accurate. Of course not! However, that does not mean that experts base their "claims" on nothing and are just "acting like smart alecs". You really need to pay more attention to what people are really saying.

To be just as honest some people just won't accept that the so-called "experts" for all their techno-babble just might be wrong. Or do we even remember that these same "experts" took TEN YEARS to realize they blew it on Hurricane Andrew (pun intended).

I also don't need to be reminded of the need to "experience" a hurricane firsthand. I've "experienced" hurricanes since Audrey of 1957, to Katrina this year, and been smack in the middle of Andrew's cat 3 landfall near Morgan City La., and I can say, speaking FROM that experience that these winds were at the very least every bit as strong in Metairie, La. as Andrew's were in Morgan City--and the wind damage around here supports that. Virtually EVERY major billboard was bent over, the doubles, twisted in half... practically every business' signs blown completely out... yeah, that was all done by cat. 1 hurricane... and I got a deed to a bridge in New York City the NHC might be interested in purchasing.

And before we are regalled with further comments about playing a "blame game"... I have no interest in blaming anyone for anything beyond the fact that I have been through it, live in it, and seen it. If anyone thinks this is about "my storm was bigger than yours," then it is they who have the problem cuz I'd be more than happy to have let them have this one except that I'd wish this monster on no one. Perhaps if we weren't so smack in the middle of utter devastation, and perhaps if people could rise above the water damage (pun intended) and look to what was NOT water but wind damage, and show a little bit of empathy with those who DID experience this, we might all be more predisposed to calmer and less emotional dialogue. But it IS difficult when one is incessantly bombarded by what, at least appears to them as both condescending and "know it all" posts from those who did NOT experience this thing and seem unwilling to acknowledge the proven fallibility of human devices.

Apologies to any offended, as none was intended; but they say that catharsis is good for the soul. And I feel much better.

A2K

If that's what you believe, why are you acting so proud like you know everything to the very inch?

Also, do you expect even the best of experts to know everything and come to conclusions instantly? Of course not! However, that does not mean they are acting like husky, boasting, know-it-all smart alecs. Everything is a process.

Also, if you are claiming winds are so strong, wouldn't that mean that Andrew had 200MPH sustained winds at landfall, Camille had 210MPH sustained winds at landfall, and the Florida Keys 1935 Labor Day Hurricane had sustained winds of 250MPH at landfall?

[TSmith274]

According to the Saffir-Simpson, New Orleans got a cat 2, IMO. But, if the scale is wrong and needs revising, fine. But that description pretty much matches the wind damage in the N.O. area.

We had a cat 1 hurricane in 1988... Florence. I was here for that one... no damage, and she's been forgotten.

[MiamiensisWx]

According to the Saffir-Simpson, New Orleans got a cat 2, IMO. But, if the scale is wrong and needs revising, fine. But that description pretty much matches the wind damage in the N.O. area.

I agree. I think New Orleans had mainly Category One to Category Two sustained winds. THAT DOES NOT MEAN CATEGORY ONE OR CATEGORY TWO WINDS ARE WEAK - THEY ARE NOT!

[MiamiensisWx]

Audrey2Katrina, this might solve the issue of why Category One and Category Two winds caused so much damage in New Orleans. This is JUST ONE REASON - THERE ARE MANY OTHER REASONS!

the wind damage in new orleans is unprecedented because cat 1 or 2 winds have not occurred in NO in recent memory.

Cindy only brought can conditions to the Grand Isle area. By the time it reached NO, it was a 50KT TS as it weakened while moving inland.

This seems to be where the confusion lies. Everyone affected by a storm thinks they went through the maximum winds of the storm, when less than 1% of the affected area did. Then, when real cat 1 or 2 conditions come through, they are very surprised at the devastation

You just have to accept the huge amount of damage that Category One or Category Two sustained winds bring. You are just going in circles just to cover up the fact that you think those winds are weak. It is nonsense to think that Category One or Category Two winds are weak. Unfortunately, many Americans believe this. They (not people on the Gulf coast who have experienced Katrina) must accept that there are also many other factors that make ALL STORMS DESTRUCTIVE, REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH. In order to be better prepared next year, we must acknowledge new mindsets. Period.

[Pearl River]

LaplaceFF you left out wind damage in St Tammany. There was lots of it. Lots of large oak and pine trees blown over or snapped in half.

Jam151 said:

Every anemometer in southeast Louisiana confirms what many had suspected when Katrina began to weaken on infrared imagery. Katrina began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle while interacting with a trough to the west at the same time. On top of that, we were in the west quadrant, and Metairie wasn't even close to the eyewall. Now the storm surge argument is poor and the board has gone over than 100 times.

How could every anamometer prove Katrina was weak, when they all broke. Slidell had a 23 to 28 ft strom surge. This was announced by the NWS.[/quote]

[stormcrow]

The biggest surprise i got when I finally got into New Orleans on Sept 15th was the amount of wind damage. I expected (even if I couldn't comprehend) the flood damage. i didn't expect the amount of sturctural damage (similar to the description of Cat 3 damages) that i saw. My veiw from the ground for NOLA was weak cat 3 and for the north shore was slightly stronger winds. I haven't been to the Ms coast, but damage along I10 was amazing.

[Aslkahuna]

A couple of important things to note with regards to the winds in NOLA. First off, you can NOT use the damage to the roof of the Superdome as any sort of evidence as to what the 10m sustained winds were in NOLA since the roof is close to a full order of magnitude higher than the standard height for sustained winds. I think it has been stated in other threads on this topic that NHC will say that the winds 30 stories up will be at least a full category stronger than at 10m so lets forget about the damage to the upper floors of high rises as it has no bearing upon the actual sustained winds that will be reported. Secondly, the Saffir-Simpson scale is based upon SUSTAINED winds and NOT gusts. You can't say you got a Cat 3 storm because you got gusts to 120 mph because gusts in that range would require only Cat 1 sustained winds overland using the 1.4-1.6 gust ratio found by JTWC for storms overland. As far as trees being blown over, that depends upon factors other than winds since it the ground is saturated or loosely consolidated or the tree is shallow rooted (or diseased) will have a bearing at what windspeed will totally blow over a large tree. Originally, I think the scale as defined noted trees that were healthy and deep rooted. During Lester in Sierra Vista in 1992, we had sustained 45-55mph winds with gusts to 70-80 mph and yet many trees were uprooted because very heavy rains had saturated the largely alluvial soil before the winds hit thus we have what would have truly been Cat 1 damage with moderate Tropical Storm force winds.

Steve

[Pearl River]

Up until Katrina, the New Orleans area had been in a drought. We hadn't had measurable rain until Katrina hit. Several trees were snapped in half or bent in the middle. Not in small groups that would be caused by small tornadoes.