SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Disturbance 6 (Former TD6)

[P.K.]

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:22pm WST on Friday the 16th of December 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A weak tropical low was located in the vicinity of 10S 112E south of Java at
noon WST. Although there is no immediate indications that the low will form into
a tropical cyclone, there is some potential for development by Monday as the low
moves to the southwest towards a favourable environment in which to develop.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday: low
Sunday : low
Monday : moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[P.K.]

IDW10900

UPDATED
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 2:35pm WST on Saturday the 17th of December 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A weak tropical low was located in the vicinity of 11S 110E south of Java at
noon WST. Although there is no immediate indications that the low will form into
a tropical cyclone, there is some potential for development by Monday as the low
moves to the southwest towards a favourable environment in which to develop.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Sunday : low
Monday : moderate
Tuesday : moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 109.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF PERSISTENT DEEP CON-
VECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO POOR.



http://www.bom.gov.au/difacs/IDX1274.gif?20051218020324

[MiamiensisWx]

It is looking fairly well-organized right now, with some fairly good outflow developing!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is looking very good...It has formed a nice Cdo!!! I hope it stays over water in becomes a strong cyclone.

[joe_koehle]

i like all the storms in the southern ocean...lined up so neatly.

it would be nice to see a strong cyclone somewhere in the southern hemisphere soon...i just think they look cooler than their N hemisphere counterparts.

[P.K.]

Development potential down to low:

IDW10900

UPDATED
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:46pm WST on Sunday the 18th of December 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A weak tropical low was located in the vicinity of 14S 109E south of Java at
noon WST. The tropical low is expected to have a low development potential for
the next few days.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Monday : low
Tuesday : low
Wednesday : low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[P.K.]

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Monday the 19th of December 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A weak tropical low was located in the vicinity of 14S 109E south of Java at
noon WST. The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next
three days.
A second low was located in the vicinity of 8S 88E at noon WST and has a
moderate chance of developing in the next three days. This low is likely to be
in the vicinity of 90E on Tuesday and Wednesday but is then likely to be steered
further west of 90E.

[P.K.]

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Wednesday the 21st of December 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A broad trough persists in the vicinity south of Java with a low located near
12S 110E at noon WST Wednesday. The low is not expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone in the next three days.

The trough extends west to a second low:
Location :near 8.6S 91.7E
Central Pressure :1005hPa
Recent movement :south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour [8 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Wednesday : low
Thursday : low
Friday : moderate

REMARKS - This low is likely to move in a southwesterly direction over the next
few days and be west of 90E by Friday.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1828UTC 21 DECEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC a tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude 8.8 south
Longitude 91.5 east
Recent movement SW at 3 knots.
Central pressure 998 hPa.
This system could deepen into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants extending to 180
nautical miles in southern quadrants. Other quadrants within 60nm of centre
could be affected if the system deepens into a tropical cyclone.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots in western and southern quadrants.

At 0000UTC 22 December: 9.0 south 91.3 east
996 hPa.
At 1200UTC 22 december: 9.4 south 91.0 east
995 hPa.

Next warning issued by 0000 UTC 22 December 2005.

WEATHER PERTH

[MiamiensisWx]

It is looking pretty good and is starting to become more and more organized... getting very interesting!

[HURAKAN]

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:22pm WST on Thursday the 22nd of December 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low
Location :near 10S 92E at noon Thursday
about 590 kilometres
west northwest of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure :998hPa
Recent movement :south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Friday : high
Saturday : high
Sunday : high

REMARKS - low is expected to move towards the west southwest, and be west of 90E
by Saturday.

Tropical Low
Location :near 14S 106E at noon Thursday
about 400 kilometres
south of Christmas Island
Central Pressure :1004hPa
Recent movement :west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Friday : low
Saturday : moderate
Sunday : low

REMARKS - low is expected to continue to move toward the west southwest.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0436UTC 22 DECEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC a tropical low located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude nine decimal nine south [9.9S]
Longitude ninety one decimal six east [91.6E]
Recent movement : southwest at 4 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles
in western quadrants.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1800 UTC 22 December:
Within 40 nautical miles of 10.5 south 90.6 east.
Central Pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 23 December:
Within 60 nautical miles of 11.1 south 88.7 east.
Central Pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 22 December 2005.


WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1307UTC 22 DECEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC a tropical low located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal two south [10.2S]
Longitude ninety one decimal zero east [91.0E]
Recent movement : southwest at 5 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles
in western quadrants.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0000 UTC 23 December:
Within 40 nautical miles of 10.6 south 90.0 east.
Central Pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 December:
Within 60 nautical miles of 11.1 south 87.9 east.
Central Pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 22 December 2005.


WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Looking really nice, Dvorak is up to 2.0 from 1.5 earlier.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is continuing to look very good and is organizing!

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1822UTC 22 DECEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC a tropical low located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal two south [10.2S]
Longitude ninety decimal six east [90.6E]
Recent movement : southwest at 5 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles
in western quadrants.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0600 UTC 23 December:
Within 60 nautical miles of 10.8 south 89.0 east.
Central Pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 24 December:
Within 60 nautical miles of 11.4 south 87.0 east.
Central Pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 23 December 2005.


WEATHER PERTH

[Coredesat]

This would be Invest 98S:



B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S
92.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PART-
IALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[P.K.]

Meteo-France have this as a strong tropical storm (975hPa), however the BoM have the centre within their area. The next BoM update should be interesting.

Jeudi, 22 décembre 2005, 22h30 (UTC+4)

BULLETIN DU 22 DECEMBRE A 13H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 06-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 975 HPA.
POSITION LE 22 DECEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 9.7 SUD / 89.0 EST
(NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3760 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 12.1S/85.5E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.6S/81E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.1S/75.4E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
LE JEUDI 22/12/2005 A 1630 LOCALES

[MiamiensisWx]

It has now been upgraded to INVEST.99S!