Well the subsurface is somewhat split, temperature wise, and the coolers SST's have not really dug in up above. Nor are they as cool, anomaly wise, as a month or so ago. But this is to be expected in my opinion.
The strong space weather forcing caused this earlier change towards a Positive SOI (Which is now gone, 30 day average wise) some time back but it has been much weaker during November and December compared to late August and September.
But what lies ahead?
Another influential player in ENSO forcing may be trying to come forth. A few volcanoes, Manaro and Galeras are two that come to mine, are becoming more active. The whole game changes if one of these volcanoes has a major eruption.
This points towards Negative ENSO conditions. Plus we will have one heck of a COLD spell down the road if we do have a major eruption this winter....volcano winter....
Now in my AMO discussion last month I talked about how a negative ENSO trend (SOI) will mean colder temperatures for the Northeast this winter. (And possibly other areas)
This has occurred like clockwork so far.
Look about 3/4 of the way down under
Weather Note:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570
The 30 day SOI average was about +14.00 at mid November. Most of northeast was very warm in November all the way through midmonth ( About + 6 degree anomalies.)
The SOI has steadily swung negative since mid November and our temperature anomalies are probably the exact opposite right now. Maybe even more. (Dec 8th 30 day SOI avg. - 4.0 )
I am very serious. I do not want to see a volcanic eruption this month. Not with that negtive PDO in place etc....
Jim
