Tropical Disturbance in SE Gulf....

[MWatkins]

Here's something I posted across the street...


There is no low-level support for piece of the system in the NW Caribbean...it just happens to be the fact that we have a large area of convection displaced well away from the surface low (area)...and this appears to be driven by upper difluence aloft from northwesterly shear more than anything else (20+ knots according to latest CIMS analysis).

There is a weakening upper-low to the northwest of the surface low(centered near 22.5N 92W or so as I write this...this is combining to vent the surface low to the SE...but is providing shear in the mid and upper levels.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The 12Z GFS initialized the ULL nicely and forecasts it to weaken and fill over time as it breaks from the upper trough stretching from Florida into the Atlantic in the next 48 hours or so. What is left should slip to the southwest and it should be in a posotion to at least not hinder upper outflow...and it could enhance it a bit. As the shear quiets down this area in the NW Caribbean will begin to fade out and if the surface system gets organized to the north...thunderstorm activity will increase there and pull in the energy that is getting so spread out right now. In any event...I don't think conditions are going to favor rapid strengthening...so I would go with a weak TS somewhere west of the Mississippi...could be as far south as Mexico depending on development timing. The longer it takes to develop the further west it will go I think. Of course...it's early and the system is bogged down over land...but this could be a case where the ULL gets the 'fire' going at the surface and then moves away to allow the system to intensify some. The fact taht Carlos has dissipated in the EPAC should help the system by not competing with it.

We have all weekend to watch it...

MW

[cycloneye]

As always Mike great anaylisis of all the factors that will make this system develop or not.

[MWatkins]

I'm sure you're keeping an "eye" on those two waves spinning around in the east/central Atlantic. The invest is back up for the first wave...the environmnet could moderate in the coming days...and July is approaching.

MW

[cycloneye]

Yes July is comming and with it more watching to my east and yes I am looking at those waves and as you said conditions will be better next week so let's see what happens.

[Stormsfury]

I'm sure you're keeping an "eye" on those two waves spinning around in the east/central Atlantic. The invest is back up for the first wave...the environmnet could moderate in the coming days...and July is approaching.

MW

Last night, a couple of the models are hinting at something (or were hinting) ... from the furthest east (around 32ºW) when I was preparing my prognostic outlook last night in regards to the system in the Caribbean ... and noticed that the GFS was emphatic on developing a tropical cyclone around 10ºN, 38ºW and and then turning it towards the NNW after moving W or WNW in its' initial stages ...

The first system ... around 40ºW has a cyclonic turn, or an actual low associated with it, it looks like dry air is about to work on it though. Further east, another cyclonic turn further back around 31º-33ºW and imbedded within the ITCZ ... neither system looks to be a dominant system ... but the further east system looks a lot better, IMO, of the two...

[MWatkins]

[/quote] Further east, another cyclonic turn further back around 31º-33ºW and imbedded within the ITCZ ... neither system looks to be a dominant system ... but the further east system looks a lot better, IMO, of the two...[/quote]

I'd agree that the second one has a tighter spin to it...the one ahead seems to have broadened out during the last 24 hours and the low may dissipate soon. If I were a betting man I'd bet on the second one as well.

MW

[cycloneye]

Agree that the wave has a good chance and now has a 1012 mb low with it embedded in the ITCZ so let's see what happens with it.