The 2005 Hurricane Season was the most amazing, powerful, active season that we will likely ever see in our lifetimes. Maybe a once in a lifetime event. Each big hurricane of the year outranking each other. Emily got stronger than Dennis...Katrina outranked Emily...Rita outranked Katrina....Wilma outranked them all. The season had an unprecedented four US landfalling major hurricanes....Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
However, one storm not only changed hurricane history...it changed American History....Hurricane Katrina.
My 2005 Forecast called for 14/8/5...with two US landfalling major hurricanes. I expected one in August, and one in September. I expected a Category 4 for Texas in August...and a Category 4 crossing Florida, before coming ashore in Louisiana as a Category 3.
We saw two storms similar to my forecast. Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana in August as a Category 4...and Louisiana/Texas saw a Category 3 in September.
However, Dennis in July and Wilma in October make the fact that four out of six months of Hurricane Season 2005...had a major hurricane making US Landfall.
THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON
Arlene (A DRYING SHAME) was a tropical storm that hit Florida in June with little impact, and was bombarded by dry air, despite favorable upper level winds.
Bret (WASTED TALENT) was a minimal tropical storm that spun up as fast as it could before slamming into Mexico. Bret formed in the same area as the Hurricane Bret of 1999 did, which ended up being a 140 mph Hurricane, and hitting a sparsely populated area of Texas as a Category 3. I fear 2005's Bret might have had a similar fate..given conditions were very favorable. Be happy Bret moved into Mexico...and not over boiling waters. However, Bret kicked off the first Active phase of Hurricane Season 2005, that would last from Bret in late June to Gert in late July.
Cindy (KATRINA'S SUCCESSOR) was a strong tropical storm/category one hurricane at landfall near Grand Isle, LA. It's winds would be about 65 mph weaker than it's successor Katrina...but it would still pack a punch into area's of the North Gulf Coast. I believe that Cindy was a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, and we will see if it will be upgraded.
Dennis (JULY SURPRISE) was a powerful Category 4 hurricane that hit Cuba on July 8th with 140 mph winds, and Pensacola, FL on July 10th with 120 mph winds. Dennis was small, and the damage was less than feared.
Emily (JULY BEAST) was an early Cape Verde-type Hurricane and the most powerful hurricane ever in June or July, with winds of 155 mph and a 929 mb pressure south of Jamaica on July 16th, a borderline Cat 4/5 hurricane. Emily weakened to 135 mph and slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula...but was still a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. After weakening to a Category 1 storm, it blew back up into a Category 3, missing Texas south of the border, and striking Northern Mexico. This was due to a strong ridge of high pressure to the north of Emily.
Franklin (NEVERENDING FRANK) was a strong tropical storm that meandered in the Western Atlantic for a few days in late July.
Gert (WASTED TALENT PART 2) was a moderate tropical storm that came ashore in Mexico in late July, thankfully not staying over favorable conditions that could have made it a hurricane.
Harvey (SORRY HARVEY) was a strong tropical storm that nearly became a hurricane as it passed near Bermuda in early August.
Irene (OPEN WAVE!) was a Cape Verde Hurricane that reached Category 2 status, but not after baffling forecasters with a possible US impact, and constant weakening that made many even believe Irene opened into a tropical wave at times.
Jose (WASTED TALENT PART 3) was a moderate tropical storm that went into Mexico in mid-August. It formed a day before Katrina, and had it not formed, Hurricane Jose would have been the worst hurricane in US History.
Katrina (THE BIG ONE) was a powerful hurricane that forever changed American History. After striking Southeast Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on August 25th, it moved into the Gulf of Mexico, taking aim at New Orleans, LA. It quickly intensified to Category 3 status, but then underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. However, on August 28th Hurricane Katrina rapidly deepened into a Category 5 hurricane, stronger than even Hurricane Camille, with winds of 175 mph and a pressure of 902 mb. Thankfully, Katrina weakened down to 140 mph, before coming ashore near Buras, LA as a Category 4 hurricane.
The winds likely reached Category 4 sustained briefly in areas such as Buras, Venice, Pilottown, Empire, Port Sulphur, in Louisiana, and maybe up to Category 4 into areas of Long Beach, Waveland, and Bay St. Louis, MS.
However, the storm surge was the real killer. Category 3-4 winds, and 35 feet of surge combined decimated areas of the Mississippi coastline, making Camille look like a puppydog compared to Katrina.
The loss of life was over 1,000... and it was an unnecessary toll. Friday, August 26th...11pm...the National Hurricane Center track was over New Orleans, LA as a Cat 4 hurricane. Friday night, should have been when a mandatory evacuation was ordered. That would have given people Friday night, Saturday, Saturday night, Sunday and Sunday night to leave the Big Easy. Instead, a city that needs 72 hrs to evacuate was not ordered until 24 hrs before landfall. That's all I'm gonna say about that.
Katrina will go down in history as the costliest Hurricane in US History with up to 70-100 billion dollars in damage.
Lee (WHO?) was a minimal tropical storm that barely made it. However..if it hadn't had been one name too shy, Hurricane Lee would have been the worst hurricane in US History.
Maria (I'll Never Stop saying Maria) was a major hurricane that formed in the Atlantic, reached Category 3 status, and moved out to sea in late September.
Nate (The Cool 2005 Hurricane) was a nice organized Category 1 storm, that followed Hurricane Maria out to sea. It was an average hurricane.
Ophelia (Enough already) was a puzzling Category 1 storm that scraped the Carolinas days after meandering and upwelling itself nearly to the brink of extinction.
Philippe (Oddest Track of 2005) was an unusual September hurricane. It is unusual for the fact that, instead of entering the Caribbean Sea, and becoming a monster Category 3, 4 or even Category 5 hurricane like September hurricanes typically do...Philippe moved parallel to the islands and out to sea.
Rita (KATRINA'S LITTLE SISTER) was a powerful Category 5 hurricane that peaked out at 175 mph, 897 mb...before weakening to a Category 3 storm by landfall near Johnson's Bayou, LA.
A 15-20 foot storm surge destroyed coastal towns such as Cameron and Holly Beach, LA. However, Rita's winds were responsible for nasty moderate damage in some areas in eastern Texas such as Beaumont and Port Arthur. Rita was a very destructive Gulf Coast hurricane, but is somewhat overshadowed by it's Predecessor Katrina, and it's Successor Wilma. Kind of like a middle child in some cases. The youngest gets all the attention (KATRINA), the oldest gets all the admiration (WILMA), and the middle child is....in the middle of it all (RITA).
Stan (STAN THE KILLER MAN) was a deadly hurricane that killed over 1,000 due to flooding in Mexico and Central America. Stan made landfall on the morning of October 4th, which was 48 hours sooner than forecast. This brought Stan in as an 80 mph Category 1, instead of a Category 2, or even a major hurricane.
Tammy (27 HOUR STORM) was a minimal tropical storm that came ashore near Mayport, Florida on October 5th.
Vince (WHAT THE HECK?) was an odd Category 1 storm that formed in the far reaches of the Northeast Atlantic and struck Spain as a Tropical Storm in mid-October.
Wilma (GILBERT'S WIFE) was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. 882 mb, and 175-185 mph winds. It struck Cozumel and Cancun, Mexico as a 140 mph Category 4 storm on October 21st, and then struck Cape Romano, FL as a 125 mph Category 3 on October 24th. Damage from Wilma was extensive in South Florida, mainly due to the winds.
Alpha (LONG AWAITED) was a deadly tropical storm that took lives in Hispanola in late October.
Beta (GREEK MAJOR) was a powerful Category 3 hurricane that weakened to a Category 2 storm before striking Nicaragua causing extensive damage to coastal towns.
Gamma (NEVER GONNA GET IT) was a moderate tropical storm that was sheared out over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea in November.
Delta (TURKEY, DRESSING, DELTA?) was a near hurricane around Thanksgiving that nearly reached hurricane strength on Thanksgiving (NOV 24), after forming from a sub-tropical low.
Epsilon (DESTINATION UNKNOWN) is a powerful Category 1 hurricane that has strengthened over cold waters and unfavorable shear conditions. It's future looks gloomy, but since Epsilon has defied all odds so far...Hurricane Epsilon's future is unknown.
I will release my unofficial 2006 Hurricane Season Forecast on Friday December 9, 2005.
(Wasted talent, july beast)
