Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm BAAZ (05B)

[HURAKAN]

WTIO21 PGTW 271200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 271151ZNOV2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 93.4E TO 11.9N 89.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 93.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.1N 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY
450 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850
MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281200Z.//

[HURAKAN]

27/0630 UTC 10.9N 92.8E T1.5/1.5 96B -- Bay of Bengal

[Hurricanehink]

Looking good. Could we get Baaz out of this?

[Hurricanehink]

We now have 5B, according to NRL.

[senorpepr]

Looking good. Could we get Baaz out of this?

We'll see if the name Baaz is used for this system. The IMD, which has the official ruling for this region, did not upgrade an October cyclone, which would mean Baaz would be the next name. However, that same October cyclone was upgraded by Pakistan's Met Center to Baaz. If it is considered that 04B was Baaz, this would make the next available name "Fanoos".

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow. Excellent circulation...

[P.K.]

The IMD, which has the official ruling for this region, did not upgrade an October cyclone, which would mean Baaz would be the next name. However, that same October cyclone was upgraded by Pakistan's Met Center to Baaz. If it is considered that 04B was Baaz, this would make the next available name "Fanoos".

Really? I thought that wasn't possible?

Nothing on the IMD's webpage yet.

[Hurricanehink]

Looking good. Could we get Baaz out of this?

We'll see if the name Baaz is used for this system. The IMD, which has the official ruling for this region, did not upgrade an October cyclone, which would mean Baaz would be the next name. However, that same October cyclone was upgraded by Pakistan's Met Center to Baaz. If it is considered that 04B was Baaz, this would make the next available name "Fanoos".

Good point, I forgot about that. We'll see indeed.

[senorpepr]

The IMD, which has the official ruling for this region, did not upgrade an October cyclone, which would mean Baaz would be the next name. However, that same October cyclone was upgraded by Pakistan's Met Center to Baaz. If it is considered that 04B was Baaz, this would make the next available name "Fanoos".

Really? I thought that wasn't possible?

Nothing on the IMD's webpage yet.

Yeah, it looks like Pakistan overstepped their boundaries. It's all up to IMD now... will their maintain the official word and have 05B become Baaz or will they go with Pakistan for the sake of a lack of confusion.

[Sanibel]

I guess the Bay Of Bengal has an off-season as well when the sun moves to the antipodes.


There haven't been any Bay Of Bengal super cyclones lately like the ones that killed 100,000's in the early 1970's.

[P.K.]

Yeah, it looks like Pakistan overstepped their boundaries. It's all up to IMD now... will their maintain the official word and have 05B become Baaz or will they go with Pakistan for the sake of a lack of confusion.

I'd make a joke about the cricket here with England currently involved in a test series with Pakistan but I doubt anyone would get it.

At least when they are unofficially named in the Philippines they give them different names.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND
282100Z.//


27/2030 UTC 10.5N 91.0E T2.0/2.0 05B -- Bay of Bengal




NRL has the system already with 35 knots, so it's a tropical storm.

[mike815]

thanks for the update.

[HURAKAN]

28/0230 UTC 10.2N 89.8E T2.5/2.5 05B -- Bay of Bengal

[shunshu]

i live in "madras" hehe and there have been no warnings at all here...we've already had a very bad monsoon and poeple are still recovering from recent floods.

[P.K.]

Not a deep depression yet so lower than 28kts.

----

No. BOB/11/2005/ 01 Dated 28nd November, 2005

Subject: Depression in the southeast Bay of Bengal

A depression has formed over south east Bay of Bengal and lay centered at 0830 IST of 28 November, 2005 near Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 19.00 E about 1150 Km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggests that this system is likely to move towards north Tamil Nadu - South Andhra Pradesh Coast during next 2-3 days.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavyfall is likely over Bay Islands during 24 hrs . Strong winds with speed reaching 45-55 Kmph also likely along and off Bay Islands during the same period.

State of the sea near Bay Islands will be rough to very rough. Fishermen in these areas are advised not to venture into the sea.

[shunshu]

WTIO31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 10.3N 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 10.3N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 10.8N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 11.3N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.1N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

[Amaterasu]

Should not affect shipping routes much unless wave heights double.

[P.K.]

No. BOB/11/2005/ 02 Dated 28nd November, 2005

Subject: Depression in the southeast Bay of Bengal

The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved slightly westward and intensified into a deep depression which lay centered at 1130 IST of 28 November, 2005 near Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 90.00 E about 1100 Km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggests that this system is likely to move towards north Tamil Nadu - South Andhra Pradesh Coast during next 2-3 days.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely over Bay Islands during next 24 hrs. Strong winds with speed reaching 45-55 Kmph also likely along and off Bay Islands during the same period.

State of the sea near Bay Islands will be rough to very rough. Fishermen in these areas are advised not to venture into the sea.

[shunshu]

Should not affect shipping routes much unless wave heights double.

wonder if the system will make landfall as predicted...
most systems in the bay have a tendency to go northwards when it nears the coast