Looks pretty OMINOUS to say the least

[Rainband]

[Amanzi]

:o :o :o Someone is going to get a dumping on, that is for sure!

[Rainband]

:o :o :o Someone is going to get a dumping on, that is for sure!

I hope not FLORIDA..go west ..go west :o No more rain for me..for a while!!!!!!

[GulfBreezer]

I feel your pain Johnathan!! QUACK QUACK!! But you are right, it is definitely something to watch................
Here is Johnathan.............

[ColdFront77]

The surface cold front is draped from extreme eastern Michigan south and south-southwestward to northeast Texas at the current time. The further east this system gets, the more likely the system in the western Caribbean will move more northerly than northwesterly.

[wxman57]

That trof down across the Bahamas to the Yucatan isn't weakening as the GFS had forecast. Wind shear is very high near the wave. Development isn't as likely now. And it may just be zipped NE up the trof (at least part of it).

[RiverRat]

As cruel as it may seem, I really hope this particular storm turns due west and stays on that track!

[vbhoutex]

I've got to agree with you wxman57. None of the progged lessening of shear has started and if it doesn't soon most of that disturbed area is going to be grabbed up and swiftly shunted off NE. The part that is already appearing to be left behind over the Yucatan peninsula may be what will develop into the low some models are bringing to us in SE TX late next week.

[Colin]

For you guys in Florida, I hope what wxman57 is saying is correct! :o

[wxman57]

First of all, I'm not at work this week, so I'm relying on what I can see through logging into our server and off the Internet. No GARP from here! I notice two trains of thought (model-wise). The GFS and NOGAPS now don't really develop a low. They just drive the moisture in the NW caribbean northward across Florida, possibly affecting GA and the Carolinas, too. The ECMWF and ETA are in another world, developing a low in the BOC and moving it to the upper TX coast.

While I certainly would like to see a tropical low move over us in Houston and give us some rain (I got 1.7" yesterday, I hear), I'm not ready to buy the ETA/ECMWF solution. Looking at the sfc analysis this morning, there isn't much to push this system westward. The Bermuda high just weakly ridges to Florida, allowing an open shot for the moisture to move north.

The one "good thing" (for us hurricane nuts), is that wind shear does, indeed, appear to be decreasing this morning. But there has yet to develop a single cluster of tstms that can last for more than 2-3 hours. Until we see a single, stable cluster of storms for 24hrs, there's not much chance of development.

I give it about a 20-30% shot at developing at this point. Convection is just too transitory. But with shear decreasing today, we might just SEE that single cluster develop.

Time to go put in some attic stairs for my mother. No place I'd rather be in summer than in an attic!

[Amanzi]

Great discussion!

Oh and enjoy the attic wxman57.... I cant say I envy you on that one

I have a question, where can I find a pretty simple map that shows where the Bremuda high is and where it is forecast to go?