Worst CI of the year given by NHC for Carlos
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Derek Ortt
Worst CI of the year given by NHC for Carlos
That is an eye. The opinion of myself and forecaster Cangialosi. The 45KT is based upon a sat estimate that is 3 hours old. CI is probably closer to 55-60KT
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wx247
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I say that the intensity is probably a little stronger than NHC suggests as well, but I would say more on the order of 50KT, maybe 55.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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vbhoutex
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You could be right if the your wind numbers are right, which I have no reason to doubt.
When I started to post about the eye it was about 3 hours ago and I was going on information that was current then. Thanks for the information. I must admit it looked stronger to me than what they were saying.
When I started to post about the eye it was about 3 hours ago and I was going on information that was current then. Thanks for the information. I must admit it looked stronger to me than what they were saying.
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Stormsfury
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This would be a good case in regards to needing Air Force Reconn as bands are re-organizing around the center ... the intensity is likely stronger, as Derek stated ...
The reasoning behind the NHC's decision are based on Dvorak classifications and a ship report of 40 kts near the center of circulation and pressure of 1005.8 mb. Dvorak classifications are supporting as of the 5 pm advisory of 45 kts, however, with compact systems such as Carlos, sudden and rapid intensifications sometimes do occur ... and based on visible satellite imagery, Carlos may be trying to do just that.
The reasoning behind the NHC's decision are based on Dvorak classifications and a ship report of 40 kts near the center of circulation and pressure of 1005.8 mb. Dvorak classifications are supporting as of the 5 pm advisory of 45 kts, however, with compact systems such as Carlos, sudden and rapid intensifications sometimes do occur ... and based on visible satellite imagery, Carlos may be trying to do just that.
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