Interesting NWS discussion on poss. N FL impact

[N2FSU]

It won't happen, but an interesting read anyway...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR AVN DISC.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
120 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT AN EASY FORECAST. THE NAM
SOLUTION HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS BUT THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SURFACE AND ALOFT. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY BUT THE NAM
IS FURTHER WEST AND MUCH SLOWER IN SWINGING IT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FURTHER WESTWARD PLACEMENT AND SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESS ALLOWS TS GAMMA TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GOMEX AND MAKES LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE A MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR
FOR MY CWA...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST TRACK AND THUS WILL BE DISCOUNTED. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION BUT NOT BUY INTO THE WIDESPREAD LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY JUST YET. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LIFTS IT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINA`S MIDDAY MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW HANGING BACK ACROSS NE/AL NW/GA. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE THROUGH MY FA BY 18Z MON WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
EVENING. MOS TEMPS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WILL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

[mike815]

that would be nasty. Thats interesting. Real bad rain event in that cause and some severe weather.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

when will we know for sure that this possible scenario can be ruled out?

[mike815]

I dont know very interesting what Jacksonville put out.

[jdray]

I dont know very interesting what Jacksonville put out.

Cant find that on the NWS Jax site. Mind quoting it?

[mike815]

well here is the site i think u want. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... &map.y=155

[jlauderdal]

when will we know for sure that this possible scenario can be ruled out?

right now, i just ruled it out, there is no way this sytem is going to northern florida