Bay of Bengal: 94B - BYE, BYE!

[HURAKAN]

19/0230 UTC 7.0N 87.3E T1.5/1.5 94B -- Bay of Bengal




THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CYCLING CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH POLEWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.


The system sure looks great on visible image, and if it continues to organize it may become a tropical depression or storm in the next 24 hours.

[mike815]

wow that sure looks good!!!

[HURAKAN]

ONCE AGAIN, THE SYSTEM LOOKS REALLY NICE!!!

[fuzzyblow]

My collegue is in south India now, will it be a problem for that area ?

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
85.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH SOME POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

20/0300 UTC 7.4N 84.2E T1.5/1.5 94B -- Bay of Bengal

[P.K.]

Nothing out of the Indian Met Department yet.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 84.3E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 201231Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE OVER THE CONVECTION AND BROAD 850 MB VORTICITY TO THE
EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.





DEVELOPMENT IS NOW LESS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.

[P.K.]

No. BOB/11/2005/ 05 Dated 21st November, 2005

Subject: Depression in the southwest Bay of Bengal

Morning’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwards and lay centered today afternoon at 1430 hrs. IST with its center close to lat 9.0º N /long. 82.0º E about 300 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Pamban and Cuddalore by tomorrow afternoon. Under its influence widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over coastal Tamilnadu and Pondicherry and fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall over south interior Tamilnadu are likely during next two days.

Squally weather with wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph also likely along and off Tamilnadu and Pondicherry coasts during the same period.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu and Pondicherry coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Tamilnadu and Pondicherry coasts.

[P.K.]

No. BOB/11/2005/ 12 Dated 22st November, 2005

Subject: Depression in the southwest Bay of Bengal

The depression moved northward and lay centered at 1430 hrs. IST of 22nd November, 2005 near lat. 9.5º N and long. 79.5º E close to Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross south Tamilnadu coast near Pamban by today evening.

Under its influence widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over coastal Tamilnadu and Pondicherry and fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall over rest Tamilnadu are likely during next two days.

Squally weather with strong wind speed reaching 50 to 60 kmph also likely along and off Tamilnadu and Pondicherry coasts during the same period.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu and Pondicherry coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Tamilnadu and Pondicherry coasts.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 81.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 78.9E , APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.


UPGRADED TO FAIR BY THE JTWC.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 78.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 78.6E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHWEST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IDENTIFIED PREVIOUSLY IN MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRON-
MENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA AND THEN
EMERGE IN THE ARABIAN SEA IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[P.K.]

The date at the top of this is wrong, it should be the 23rd.

No. BOB/11/2005/ 14 Dated 22nd November, 2005

Subject: Depression in the southwest Bay of Bengal

Yesterday's well marked low pressure area over Gulf of Mannar further weakened into a low and lay over the same area at 0830 hr IST of today.

Under its influence widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over coastal Tamilnadu and fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall over fall rest Tamilnadu , Pondicherry and south Kerala are likely during 24 hrs .

This is the last bulletin for this system.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
78.6E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA HAS
MOVED OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DE-
VELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


BYE, BYE.