La Nina vs. Neutral Conditions and Atlantic Hurricanes

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Many people still seem to be confused by this, so I will explain concisely.

Having La Nina vs. Neutral conditions will NOT increase hurricane activity. I will try to find the averages, but the neutral years and La Nina years have virtually the same average of activity. The only difference is that the La Nina average is lower by one storm.

If we had had a La Nina this year instead of Neutral conditions, it would not have meant that we would have seen 32 storms instead of what may be 24. We most likely would have still seen 24.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Many people still seem to be confused by this, so I will explain concisely.

Having La Nina vs. Neutral conditions will NOT increase hurricane activity. I will try to find the averages, but the neutral years and La Nina years have virtually the same average of activity. The only difference is that the La Nina average is lower by one storm.

If we had had a La Nina this year instead of Neutral conditions, it would not have meant that we would have seen 32 storms instead of what may be 24. We most likely would have still seen 24.

Huh? All I know know is in an La Nina year he chances of seeing an above average year are 90%....

[DoctorHurricane2003]

No no no you misread my post.

People are thinking La Nina years will have more activity than Neutral years, which is not the case.

[Hyperstorm]

The major differences between a Neutral year and a La Nina year is simply that the ratio of hurricanes to named storms is greater. For example, if there are 15 named storms, we can expect around 2/3 of them to become hurricanes (based on averages) or around 10. The opposite is true for El Nino years, which tend to have less hurricanes for a certain number of named storms. The likelihood of these hurricanes strengthening into major hurricanes is also greater.

This is all due to there being more favorable upper-level winds that allow these developed storms to strengthen more...

[f5]

2005 to date
23 named storms
10 hurricanes
7 major hurricane with 3 or 4 of those becoming CAT 5(Emily?)