WTPN21 PGTW 141430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 141421ZNOV2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
230 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 137.1E TO 21.3N 130.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 135.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 26
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.18N 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA. A 141107Z SSMI/S PASS AND ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED AND
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONSOLIDATING
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE SPEED OF MOVE-
MENT AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
SYSTEM COULD ROUND THE AXIS AND SHEAR APART IN THE MIDLATITUDE
BEFORE IT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151430Z.//
99W is racing as fast as it's possible and be still alive. It's going over 30 mph, CHARLEY, DO YOU HEAR THAT!
