Local Effects from TD27 in Caribbean

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING AT AROUND 20 MPH THEREFORE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION HAVE REMAIN
LOW WITH THESE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCURRED DURING THESE SHOWERS.

TODAY...WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY AS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND QUICKLY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA IN COMBINATION WITH TD #27 ARE
GENERATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND IN THE MOST EXPOSED AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST.

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST AT 1100 PM AST AND WAS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT NEAR 10 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING IT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT TPC/NHC FORECAST KEEPS CENTER SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. IRRESPECTIVE OF EXACT TRACK...THE COMBINATION OF THIS
SYSTEM AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO./ BCS

AFTER THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE EAST AND THE NOW TD #27 MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THEREFORE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE ON THE WINDS IS EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TUTT LOW DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR AREA. THIS
WILL INCREASE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE INCOMING
WEEKEND. &&

.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST AT 500 AM AST
AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT NEAR 9 KNOTS. BASED ON
THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING IT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO
THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL
DETERIORATE EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AS A SE SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL
DEPRESSION #27 WILL REACH OUR LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS.

&&





This is for the members who live in the NE Caribbean area.

We can expect rainy and windy conditions in our area as the system moves to our south.The presure gradient between the high to the north and the developing low to the south will cause strong gusty winds to blow thru the area and as we know those winds haved been felt since saturday.





Any member in the Caribbean can report what is going on in your area.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-142200-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051115T0200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
956 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM AST THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS OF 300 FEET AND ABOVE.

SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40
TO 45 MPH...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST 10 AM MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF PASSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IN THE MOST EXPOSED AREAS TO THE
NORTHEAST.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.


Wind advisory for Puerto Rico and the USVI.

[caribepr]

So much for sailing. The capt. and I met in the street early this morning and both said, "Nope" at the same time. Maybe next time...

[cycloneye]

So much for sailing. The capt. and I met in the street early this morning and both said, "Nope" at the same time. Maybe next time...

I think it was the best decision not to go sailing with these kind of conditions.

[caribepr]

So much for sailing. The capt. and I met in the street early this morning and both said, "Nope" at the same time. Maybe next time...

I think it was the best decision not to go sailing with these kind of conditions.

yep...that's the islands

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 142022
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
COMBINE WITH A TROPICAL DEPRESION THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST
OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY ST. CROIX.

&&

.MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DETERIORATING AND WILL
DETERIORATE MORE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT CONFUSED SEAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE PERSISTENT PASSING SHOWERS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MAY RESULT IN A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AS
TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING OVER THE SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.CLIMATE...TROPICAL DEPRESION 27 IS EXPECTED MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS.

[msbee]

sailing?
OMG, I have friends sailing in the BVI this week!
not good!
they are gonna be rocking and rolling!
good thingyou decided to stay home, MJ

[msbee]

high winds and rain squalls affecting us now.
It's a good night to curl up with a good book

[artist]

stay high and dry everyone! thinking about you...

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N
ATLC FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W

AMZ086-151530-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
430 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 14N TO 17N TONIGHT THROUGH THU...

.TODAY...WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 15N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 109 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA ELY WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITHIN 150 NM
OF CENTER.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM ELSEWHERE OF TROPICAL STORM. HIGHEST
SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 15N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA SLY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER.
.THU...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM. HIGHEST SEAS 14 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 12N NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 10 FT. S OF 12N S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROPICAL STORM.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.





COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ710-152200-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-051116T1300Z/
ATLC WATERS FROM PUNTA CADENA TO MOUTH OF RIO GUAJATACA THEN E
BEYOND 100 FATHOMS TO ANEGADA PASSAGE N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 68W AND 64W-
434 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 21 TO 27 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS 9
FEET IN LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS. EXCEPT WEST OF 67 DEGREES
WEST...SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS. WIND GUSTS 35
TO 40 KNOTS NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...EAST WINDS 19 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 10 TO 11 FEET IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 19 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET
IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 18 TO 24 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 TO 9 FEET IN NORTHEAST SWELLS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 19 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRIDAY...NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

The main effects from TD27 is the maritime conditions.Rain has arrived in bands that the strong winds move rapidly causing that no flooidng can occur as acumulations are not too high.

Someone posted that was comming to Rincon to surf and yes the surf is very high here for the surfers to have fun.

[caribepr]

sailing?
OMG, I have friends sailing in the BVI this week!
not good!
they are gonna be rocking and rolling!
good thingyou decided to stay home, MJ

I am sure your friends are fine! The nice thing about the BVI's and USVI's is that you are never real far from safe anchorage.
The people who sailed from here to St. Thomas did it in 4 1/2 hours (it's usually around six hours!) and had a wonderful sail, wondered where we were - but they don't have to come back!