TD 27 Advisories=Last Advisorie

[cycloneye]

interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea and adjacent land
areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Tropical depression center located near 13.5n 62.7w at 14/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.5n 62.7w at 14/0300z
at 14/0000z center was located near 13.2n 62.3w

forecast valid 14/1200z 14.3n 64.1w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 15/0000z 15.3n 65.7w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 35se 25sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 15/1200z 15.9n 67.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 35se 25sw 35nw.

Forecast valid 16/0000z 16.1n 68.8w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 40se 30sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 17/0000z 16.0n 72.2w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 18/0000z 16.0n 75.5w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Outlook valid 19/0000z 16.0n 79.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.5n 62.7w

next advisory at 14/0900z

forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

093
WTNT42 KNHC 140259
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND RADAR DATA FROM
MARTINIQUE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT
14/0000Z... ST. LUCIA REPORTED SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 29 KT
...AND SHIP ZCBU6 LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF REPORTED
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 27 KT. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES AT 00Z SUPPORT
A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1007 MB... CORRESPONDING TO
APPROXIMATELY 32 KT. RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE SHOW CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER... WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LARGE AREA OF -80C TO -82C
CONVECTIVE TOPS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE 22Z. THEREFORE... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN
THE FORMATIVE STAGES... SO THERE MAY SOME ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND
THE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE GENERAL TREND BY THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO PROPAGATE
WEST-NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT... THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
SHOULD ACT TO THE DRIVE THE STORM WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE 48-120 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS... UKMET... AND
GFDL MODELS.

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS... THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AT WHICH TIME MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE
INTENSITY UP TO 66 KT IN 108 HOURS... WHEREAS THE GFDL MAKES THE
CYCLONE A 112-KT MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE SAME TIME. IT SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS BASED ON
THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TAKES THE STORM
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS COLOMBIA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN
INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 13.5N 62.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 14.3N 64.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.3N 65.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 15.9N 67.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 16.1N 68.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 72.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 79.0W 60 KT

[rainstorm]

amazing

[cycloneye]

746
WTNT32 KNHC 140258
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...THE TWENTY-SEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC
SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...DATA FROM SATELLITES AND THE MARTINIQUE RADAR
INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES
... 185 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...
WEST OF ST. VINCENT.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. WINDS
MAY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO
RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...13.5 N... 62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[canegrl04]

WOW Just when I was sure the hurricane season was over. What if we get a hurricane near Thanksgiving Day Willthis season ever end?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Since its going into the Caribbean when will the recon get into it?

[SouthFloridawx]

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 131600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 13 NOV 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOV 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 67W AT 15/1800Z WITH A POSSIBLE 16/0600Z FIX
MISSION IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
BK

[P.K.]

WTNT22 KNHC 140835
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0900Z MON NOV 14 2005

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.4N 64.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 67.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 69.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 16.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH

--------------------------------

WTNT32 KNHC 140836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...LATE SEASON DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS MAY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[P.K.]

WTNT42 KNHC 140852
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005

LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30
KT...SO THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY STRONG
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 25-33 KT OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON
STRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER. BEYOND 2 DAYS...ASSUMING THAT
THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SHEARING WILL LESSEN AS A RESULT OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THAT REGION. THE GFDL MODEL
CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY SYSTEMS IN
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...BUT IT NONETHELESS DEMANDS THE FORECASTERS'
RESPECT AS VERY CREDIBLE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AND IS THE
SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER IS NOT
YET WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 295/9. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS RIDGE...AND SLOW THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL THUS
FAR...SO A SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME. MY OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.8N 63.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.4N 64.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.1N 66.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 67.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 69.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 16.0N 76.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 79.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

458
WTNT32 KNHC 141439
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE
63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS COULD STILL
GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$



789
WTNT22 KNHC 141439
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
1500Z MON NOV 14 2005

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 64.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.4N 68.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 70.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

709
WTNT42 KNHC 141458
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER DEEP AND PERSISTENT... AND IT
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD
SOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 30 KT TO WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN BEFORE...
PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE THE
INITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POOR
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM... IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THE CYCLONE
WILL GENERALLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INDUCE EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES... WHICH WOULD SERVE TO SLOW THE CYCLONE DOWN BUT NOT
BE ENOUGH TO PICK IT UP OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. INDEED... ALL OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
FIVE DAYS... ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE LATITUDE AT
WHICH THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE... MOSTLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS IN HOW STRONG THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE
TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS RATHER
ZONAL... WITH MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF 15N THAN TO THE
SOUTH. NONETHELESS... THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER
THE DEPRESSION TO KEEP ITS SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT GRADUAL. THE
MODELS FORECAST THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED... WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SNEAK TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BECOMES SITUATED BENEATH THE
ANTICYCLONE... IT COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. THE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES DO NOT PROVIDE ANY LIMITING FACTOR... SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES LARGELY ON HOW SHEAR IMPACTS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS DIAGNOSES
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DOES NOT FORECAST
A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL 36 HOURS. IT THEN FORECASTS A STORM NO
STRONGER THAN ABOUT 50 KT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... BUT IT COULD BE
OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR... ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE
ENDS UP DIRECTLY BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... WITH
THE 06Z RUN PEAKING AT 110 KT IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE ON A SYSTEM STILL IN THE FORMATIVE
STAGES... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.8N 63.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.4N 64.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 66.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.4N 68.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 15.4N 70.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 74.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 80.0W 65 KT

[hurricanefreak1988]

This is huge for the Atlantic. The West Pac was gaining on us. Still, the lead is only three. This is going to be one exciting finish.

WOW Just when I was sure the hurricane season was over.

Learned your lesson now?

[Swimdude]

There's going to be a heck of a lot of bored storm trackers next year if we go from 2005 to a 1992-like year. Wow, that would be awful...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There's going to be a heck of a lot of bored storm trackers next year if we go from 2005 to a 1992-like year. Wow, that would be awful...

I agree...That would suck

[cycloneye]

220
WTNT32 KNHC 142046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
2100Z MON NOV 14 2005

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 64.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.6N 65.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.1N 67.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 69.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 71.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DETERIORATED SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND MORE CLEARLY
DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS BUT ONLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR. ESTIMATING
THE INTENSITY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE
CENTER POSITION... BUT THE DISTANCE OF THE EXPOSED SWIRL FROM THE
CONVECTION PROVIDES CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. 18Z DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0... AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/7. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEYOND DAY THREE AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK... BUT
LIKELY SLOW ENOUGH FOR IT TO STILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN FIVE
DAYS. SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE... DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN HOW
STRONG THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS DEPICT A
DEEPER SYSTEM AND ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE THE SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD THEREAFTER BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. IN PARTICULAR... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... WHERE OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM NEAR 29C. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS
A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS AND A PEAK AT 55 KT IN 96 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BETWEEN...
BUT MUCH CLOSER TO THE SHIPS... AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE... AND THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM... THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.2N 64.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 65.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.1N 67.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 15.4N 69.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.5N 71.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 78.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 15.5N 80.5W 65 KT

[hurricanefreak1988]

There's going to be a heck of a lot of bored storm trackers next year if we go from 2005 to a 1992-like year. Wow, that would be awful...

Of course, in that season, there was this storm named Andrew...