Will There Be An El Nino Next Year?

[MiamiensisWx]

Although there is still a lot of uncertainty, I think that we may have an El
Nino of some sort next year. Here's why...

The Atlantic Basin has had a huge amount of activity this year and when
combined with last year (2004). Also, the above-average cycle also plays apart. I am not saying that the active phase will end with an El Nino; nor am I saying that an El Nino will prevent above-average activity during (if the El Nino is weak) and after the year(s) in which the El Nino occurs. However, this is what I am suggesting, based on the large amount of heat content and tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin: there has to be a natural balance. While the Atlantic has been active for the past few years, the eastern and western Pacific have seen less activity than normal. Sooner or later, I think the heat content and favorable conditions need to be "spread out" and returned to the eastern and western Pacific by natural factors, such as an El Nino. Therefore, we may have an El Nino next year.

Any thoughts? Comments, questions, and predictions are welcome! Vote, too!

NOTE - This is just my opinion.

[f5]

El Nino may be good for keeping Hurricane activity down but if your in southern California that is bad news beacuse that means heavy rain and massive mudslides.also in the northwest it would be a drought similar to this past winter where the ski resorts had to shut down early beacuse all the snow was plowing into California

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 44&start=0

Thread that I posted last week about NOAAS update that says no el nino.

[MiamiensisWx]

Oops... sorry, cycloneye!

[WindRunner]

But that is for 6-9 months, which is only until August. It's still too early to tell for the peak season as of yet.

[cycloneye]

But that is for 6-9 months, which is only until August. It's still too early to tell for the peak season as of yet.

Agree 100% that it's early to proclaim with a certainity that no el nino will be the rule as the predictions at the early months of every year are problematic so we will have to continue to watch every month how ENSO is doing.